S&P500 IS READY TO SURGETODAY the final wave 5 will complete. Monday by 12.30 pm a new wave 'A' WILL BEGIN
US500.PRO.OTMS trade ideas
SPX - What Next It is impossible to predict markets. But I have made an attempt to bring out some clarity ???? on qtrly charts.
S&P 500 index 1wI analyzed the logarithmic graph. Price moves in the channel where the middle of the channel plays a huge role, determining the trend and price limits.
On the story, when the price went below the middle of the channel, the rate of decline before the correction was from 14 to 161 days in 2008, I think now the situation is closer to 2008.
He measured: when breaking through the middle of the channel, the maximum correction was 58% of the beginning of the correction and 46% of the middle of the channel, the minimum - 36% and 31% of the middle of the channel.
Thus, we have two zones where the price can end its fall.
Long term Prospect on SPX500 — How far is the Market gonna dip?Conjuncture
As Coronavirus seem to have reached in the EU what looks to be so far its "propagation ceiling", the US is being rapidly contaminated with the virus; their extremely precarious healthcare system worsening the spread by making it increasingly harder for people to get tested. The US spread, being late of a week or two behind the EU, still has lots of room for propagation to grow. Therefore, as soon as the disease started significantly spreading in the US, the markets began accelerating to the downside despite already pricing within a really attractive range of prices .
This suggest that the market has just — or at least recently — started pricing the actual propagation in US territory, unlike what it was doing two weeks ago. This is a sentiment that is being reinforced by Chinese's global contamination number which has been decreasing for two or three days now. Nonetheless, keep in mind that these numbers (the Chinese ones), may only be partially reliable. If my postulate is correct, we should start seeing the Asian markets slowing down during the next week, the european markets (which are way closer from their weekly supports than the US) should follow the Asian pace shortly, while the US starts accelerating.
Context/Fundamentals
Coronavirus
Oil Crash and OPEC falls apart
EU ban
Weak economics fundamentals
Major Equities still overvalued
Central banks doubling down on complacent Monetary policy
Technicals
Weakening daily bearish RSI
Weekly support trendline broke to the downside (green)
Mid-Term support area 2571 to 2470 not holding prices anymore. Prices accelerating through the area in 4 hour and higher timeframes
Markets still have lots of room to the downside on weekly timeframes
Next Key Support Areas
Here's a weekly chart highlighting most of the attractive prices and levels of support, giving you a beforetaste of the amplitude of the freefall that may occur :
2343$ — 38.2 fibonacci of 2008 - 2019 We better not close below that area, otherwise we break through the bottom of 2019's bullish movement. From there, we're forecasting the end of a weakly bearish retracement, if not a trend.
2234-2111-1963$ — Those prices, while not being the most attractive, represent interesting low volume areas close if not onto the 2015-2016 range in which the market could setup short-term ranges (for a few days or weeks), Scalpers / Daytrader's paradise, Swing Traders and investor's nightmare. Why so ? Because we would be in the worst area for risk / profit ratio Weekly wise. The area between 38.2 and 61.8% is literally what we call the "Dumb Zone", it's not for nothing. Put your Risk/Reward ratio and see for yourself :
1693$ — 61.8% retracement of 2009 - 2019 bullish trend confluent with 50% price drop since last market top. This is getting extremely interesting, personally i have buy order in the books at this exact price. If we reach that area, we're probably gonna range a looong time around it. Would we be able to go lower ? Quite unlikely but not impossible, see next level.
1290$ — To me, this area represent both enormous opportunity and risk. This is the last chance for the US market to recover and start growing again. Any monthly close below that price and it's a multi-year bearish trend confirmed for those markets. Needless to say that, at this point the 1000$ on the SPX is gonna switch from major support to major resistance.
Such a pricing of the SPX500 along with all other major US indices would mark the end of the US Dollar aswell as the United States hegemony over the rest of the world. This scenario is for Doomers only.
And that seems to be it
Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
Go easy on leverage and don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
Kindly,
J.M.K
S&P 500 Weekly Historical 11 March 2020Historically Markets DOWN
2001 51%
2008 57%
2016 16%
2018 21%
2020 20% (Lets see whats the number this time)
SPX needs to meet the lower support.SPX has been in an expanding triangle since 2012. The current downslide will find support on the lower trend line.
SPX bounce from weekly 200 MA?SPX can bounce from 200MA on weekly chart as has happened before in 2016 and 2011
SPX - IntradayThis is the power of higher t/f. As said, SPX could not cross my system level of 3081 . Please refer the previous chart in this regard and bears took control for the day. #SPX
SPX Long ConinuedThe probability I posted in the previous chart worked All credit goes to my Trend Analysis system
SPX Month chart updatedif the low 2856 is held ( double bottom month) and closes above 2998 EOD then we are for a rally. If it recovers from 2856 then my system forms a spike and we can assume fall is over.
This is just a probability
S&P 500 then and now, What next?After this huge slippage of prices today, the bullish invalidation is at $2874sh level and bullish knock back to the market will be in between the range of
3017-3050 zone.
What is expected next is break of bullish invalidation and lower side targets. A probable pull back or retest of bullish knock is possible before a fall again.
BHOOMI predicted this fall way before, on 20th Feb itself.
Read my earlier blog on different topics at niftyanalysis.in/blog
