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S&P 500 trend analysisDear Traders, We have observed the S&P500 chart to be trending in a trend channel since the lows of 2009 crash. Also, market few local support & resistances. The conclusion we got from this is very simple. S&P500 heading for a fresh bull run for the targets of the levels of 6500 + within 2-3 years of time span. Which sectors will be leading? Please comment and stay tuned for more updates. P.S: Given is information sharing based of personal observation & is not any buy or sell recommendation. Please consult you registered financial advisor before making any trade or investment
SP:SPXLong
by Noob1003
S&P 500: A Look at November and Expectations for December 2023Welcome to my first analysis on englush language. Macroeconomic Context November 2023 has been a month marked by key macroeconomic dynamics. The fall in 10-year bond interest rates has had a significant impact on the market, generating a well-known negative correlation that justifies an increase in stocks​​. However, this rapid rise in stock prices has made it difficult to adopt an overly bullish stance, and a pullback seems imminent and necessary​​. Fundamental Analysis In fundamental terms, inflation in Europe and its influence on ECB monetary policy have been relevant factors. Disinflation continues in the Eurozone, supporting the expectation that the ECB could stop raising interest rates​​. Additionally, the rise of mid and small-cap stocks, driven by the long-term interest rate declines, has been noteworthy​​. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 recorded a 14.5% increase since the beginning of the year, reaching 4,415.00 points on November 13, though it experienced a 4.2% decline from the July high​​. The index crossed the upward trend line on November 3, overcoming the 4385.00 points resistance and suggesting a possible further growth​​. Future Projections and Scenarios Looking towards December, the "Santa Claus Rally," a trend that typically materializes towards year-end, is a factor to consider. Investors are expected to seek to bolster their performance indicators before the year's end​​. Moreover, experts predict various scenarios for the S&P 500. BofA Global Research suggests it could end 2023 at 4,600 points. Barclays, on the other hand, offers three potential routes: a bullish scenario taking the index to 4700 points, a baseline forecast placing it at 4150 points, and a bearish scenario with a decline to 3650 points​​. Conclusion The S&P 500 has shown notable resilience in November, driven by macroeconomic and fundamental factors, as well as a favorable technical trend. However, uncertainty remains, especially with potential fluctuations in December. Investors would do well to remain alert to macroeconomic signals and market movements in response to monetary policies and global developments. Prudence and adaptability will be key to navigating a market scenario that remains complex and constantly evolving.
CAPITALCOM:US500
by Ivan_Campuzano
2
SnP 500This chart of the SnP has been posted by Me in the past with the levels of the Cup and Handle formation. I have recently been studying the data for the US markets of the Last 72 years and what it shows is this. 1. In the Last 72 years............. The market dropped 34 times. Of this 34 times, on 12 occasions it went to below 20% calling it a BEAR MARKET Scenario. 22 times it went into a correction of 10-16%, call it simply a correction and nothing more. Currently from the JULY peak, the SnP has dropped 10% and if history is to go by, let us assume it will fall 16%. That 16% fits the exact bill for a move towards 4050 or so to confirm the Cup and Handle formation. 2. The drawdown of 10-16% lasted 22 times within 100 days. Currently it is 91 days. 3. Markets thereafter have given a return of 56-74% on all the previous corrections in the last 72 years. 4. I WILL NOT TERM THIS AS A BEAR MARKET SITUATION. In context to the Indian Index, here is what I have come up with. 1. I have had to assume that the Indian market will go by the US consensus ... YYYY ????? 1stly the Indian Stock exchange is not 72 years old, and has not been through the cycles of the Great Depression..... etc. The Indian market actually was Hand written untill just 30 odd years ago and hence data can only be collected for the last 30-35 years. 2. Should the Indian Market Mimic the US market............. the worst case scenario is a 16% fall from the peak of 20200..... (b)..... We will probably do this 16% retrace even though the US markets may bounce back earlier than we do. 3. If we go the data way of the US market............ can we go to 96 days of Correction?? I would say..."" YES"".. The reason I say this is 2 fold. 1stly, should the market fall 16% in half the time @ 48 days we are not far away from that. 2ndly, it would be tooooooooooo obvious for Investors to follow a V shape parabolic recovery. The BIG BOYS will not want that. 4. I have said in my prior posts that I expect the Bottom of this CORRECTION on the Nifty by Dec end -15th January 2024 only. Within this space of Up and Down...... Investors will get frustrated. So much so that Many will get out. 5. Lastly, WE ARE NOT IN A BEAR MARKET SITUATION.......... NO NOT YET
SP:SPX
by deepgups
spx fake flag ? dont get trap4200 has confirmed as new base and good support for medium time frame (1h) after the retest price followed and formed higher high and higher low currently halting near 4400-4300 zone price seems to consolidate many of us looking it as flag and pole and will look to buy on trend continous as a fib retracement there is possible less probablity to gain good risk to reward on long side rather let price retrace from 4450 - 4460 zone and look for buy on pullback
CBOE:SPX
by Jimmy_Rebello
SPX vs Nifty - A lot of pain ahead for India Stock MarketsSPX is down 6.07% from Sep whereas Nifty is only down 0.74%. If the coupling still exists and we think of US markets as the mother market - then further pain awaits Indian indices. There are 2 factors which could play spoilsport 1. Rising oil prices - going to cost dearly as we are a net oil importer 2. Rising dollar index - this will push down the INR much further If India finds a way to buy oil in rupees - problem solved. Nifty50 cannot remain elevated for so long if the global markets are falling. Remember - when the rise is higher, the fall will be higher. Or are the investors gung-ho on India's growth story?
SP:SPX
by viswaram