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SnP 500This chart of the SnP has been posted by Me in the past with the levels of the Cup and Handle formation. I have recently been studying the data for the US markets of the Last 72 years and what it shows is this. 1. In the Last 72 years............. The market dropped 34 times. Of this 34 times, on 12 occasions it went to below 20% calling it a BEAR MARKET Scenario. 22 times it went into a correction of 10-16%, call it simply a correction and nothing more. Currently from the JULY peak, the SnP has dropped 10% and if history is to go by, let us assume it will fall 16%. That 16% fits the exact bill for a move towards 4050 or so to confirm the Cup and Handle formation. 2. The drawdown of 10-16% lasted 22 times within 100 days. Currently it is 91 days. 3. Markets thereafter have given a return of 56-74% on all the previous corrections in the last 72 years. 4. I WILL NOT TERM THIS AS A BEAR MARKET SITUATION. In context to the Indian Index, here is what I have come up with. 1. I have had to assume that the Indian market will go by the US consensus ... YYYY ????? 1stly the Indian Stock exchange is not 72 years old, and has not been through the cycles of the Great Depression..... etc. The Indian market actually was Hand written untill just 30 odd years ago and hence data can only be collected for the last 30-35 years. 2. Should the Indian Market Mimic the US market............. the worst case scenario is a 16% fall from the peak of 20200..... (b)..... We will probably do this 16% retrace even though the US markets may bounce back earlier than we do. 3. If we go the data way of the US market............ can we go to 96 days of Correction?? I would say..."" YES"".. The reason I say this is 2 fold. 1stly, should the market fall 16% in half the time @ 48 days we are not far away from that. 2ndly, it would be tooooooooooo obvious for Investors to follow a V shape parabolic recovery. The BIG BOYS will not want that. 4. I have said in my prior posts that I expect the Bottom of this CORRECTION on the Nifty by Dec end -15th January 2024 only. Within this space of Up and Down...... Investors will get frustrated. So much so that Many will get out. 5. Lastly, WE ARE NOT IN A BEAR MARKET SITUATION.......... NO NOT YET
SP:SPX
by deepgups
spx fake flag ? dont get trap4200 has confirmed as new base and good support for medium time frame (1h) after the retest price followed and formed higher high and higher low currently halting near 4400-4300 zone price seems to consolidate many of us looking it as flag and pole and will look to buy on trend continous as a fib retracement there is possible less probablity to gain good risk to reward on long side rather let price retrace from 4450 - 4460 zone and look for buy on pullback
CBOE:SPX
by Jimmy_Rebello
SPX vs Nifty - A lot of pain ahead for India Stock MarketsSPX is down 6.07% from Sep whereas Nifty is only down 0.74%. If the coupling still exists and we think of US markets as the mother market - then further pain awaits Indian indices. There are 2 factors which could play spoilsport 1. Rising oil prices - going to cost dearly as we are a net oil importer 2. Rising dollar index - this will push down the INR much further If India finds a way to buy oil in rupees - problem solved. Nifty50 cannot remain elevated for so long if the global markets are falling. Remember - when the rise is higher, the fall will be higher. Or are the investors gung-ho on India's growth story?
SP:SPX
by viswaram
S&P 500To Me the SNP 5oo doesnt have much downside to go. From 4210 odd to 4290..... it will probably make another small LOW..... and that too coz the Dow needs to make another Low before everything bottoms out. September being over as a Historical down month...... I am betting my BOTTOM DOLLAR that by December end Markets will be Much Higher than before. Do not be surprised if we cross ATH and keep moving higher. I see Entire World Markets ALLIGNING to make a DASH for the TOP. There is tooooo much talk from all Technical quarters about the USA entering a recession by mid 2024..... Assuming they are Correct.......... I am still betting my Dollar that inspite of such talk, the US indexs will be Higher. Its very simple......... The MARKETS WILL NOT FALL unless and UNTILL they have completed their entire wave structures. This is TRUE for the Indian Markets as well. Personally......... I see the USA getting into a recession IF AT ALL by mid - end of 2025.The Market has to ROPE Everyone INSIDE and only then will it fall, just when ALL LOOKS HONKY DORY
SP:SPX
by deepgups