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U.S. Dollar / Australian Dollar

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China tensions weigh on Aussie, NFP loomsThe Australian dollar is slightly higher in Thursday trade. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7756, up 0.12% on the day. On the fundamental front, the RBA releases its quarterly policy statement on Friday (1:00 GMT). Relations between China and Australia continue to spiral downwards. China has engaged in a trade war against Australia, which included tariffs on Australian wine exports in November. Last month, the Australian government made the unusual move of cancelling an infrastructure agreement between China and the State of Victoria, which was connected to China's Belt and Road initiative. Predictably, the move was harshly criticised by the Chinese government. The latest salvo was fired earlier on Thursday, as China said it was indefinitely suspending the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue. The dialogue has been frozen since 2017, so the move appears to be largely symbolic. The huge trading relationship between the countries will likely not be affected, such as Australian exports of iron ore to China. Still, the announcement of the suspension of the dialogue was enough to send the Australian dollar briefly lower. If there are further negative political developments between the two countries, the Aussie could face a bumpy road. All eyes will be on US nonfarm payrolls for April, which will be released on Friday (12:30 GMT). The ADP Employment Report is not considered a reliable gauge for the official NFP, but investors couldn't help notice that the ADP reading jumped to 742 thousand, up from 514 thousand. Nonfarm payrolls climbed to 916 thousand in March and with a forecast of 990 thousand, a reading above the symbolic one-million mark is certainly within reach. If nonfarm payrolls outperforms, risk sentiment would improve, which would be bearish for risk commodities like the Australian dollar.
by OANDA
AUDUSD - RANGE BOUND Description: The counter AUDUSD is moving between the price range of 0.7691 and 0.7815 in a parallel channel. Both the flat-top resistance and the support base seem to be stronger. Therefore the counter is expected to continue in the parallel channel. Determining the trend is very difficult for this condition. Breakout of the parallel channel will specify the trend of the counter. Swing trading is more preferable for this condition. The Stop loss is mandatory for performing swing trading. Levels of the stochastic indicator will be very useful for swing trading. The major levels for this counter are R2 – 0.7805 R1 – 0.7782 PP – 0.7744 S1 – 0.7722 S2 – 0.7683
by WohlstandMarketsLimited
Australian dollar dips as inflation missesThe Australian dollar is down slightly in the Wednesday session. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7747, down 0.27% on the day. Australian CPI posted a gain of 0.6% in the first quarter of the year, down from 0.9% in Q4 of 2020. The read was certainly respectable, but underperformed, as the estimate stood at 0.9%. Trimmed CPI, which excludes the most volatile items, dropped from 0.4% to 0.3% and missed the forecast of 0.5%. The weak readings have sent the Australian dollar lower. The lower than expected inflation numbers will lessen any pressure that was on the RBA to tighten policy due to stronger economic conditions. Australia has extricated itself in admirable fashion from the downturn due to Covid, although the vaccine rollout has been sluggish. The RBA has been cautious and says that it does not expect GDP or employment to reach pre-pandemic levels until later in the year. Once the economy reaches that level, there is a good chance that the RBA could tighten policy, such as easing QE, as we saw with the Bank of Canada earlier this month. What can we expect from the FOMC meeting later today (18:00 GMT)? Expectations for a dramatic announcement are low, as the Fed does not appear in any hurry to tighten policy, even with a rapidly improving US economy. The market seems to have bought into the Fed's message that even though inflationary pressures are growing, QE will not be reduced for a while yet. In follow-up comments to today's meeting, Fed Chair Powell is likely to wax positive about the economy but simultaneously state that the economy is still in recovery mood and needs the Fed to keep its foot on the pedal. Unless the Fed surprises with a more hawkish rate statement than expected, it should be "business as usual" after the meeting, which means that the US dollar could find itself under pressure from the major currencies. On the upside, 0.7813 has some breathing room in resistance as AUD has lost ground. Above, there is resistance at 0.7887. On the downside, there are support levels at 0.7688 and 0.7627
by OANDA
Australian dollar dips, CPI nextThe Australian dollar has reversed directions on Tuesday and recorded slight gains. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7781, down 0.22% on the day. Australian CPI showed a strong gain of 0.9% in the fourth quarter, and an identical gain is projected for the first quarter of the year. The economy is performing well, boosted by stronger demand for Australian commodities and ultra-low interest rates. Unemployment has been falling, undeterred by the end of the JobKeeper employment programme at the end of March. Not surprisingly, inflation is also showing strength, reflective of the positive economic conditions. Consumers are again spending, as Retail Sales rebounded in March with a gain of 1.4%, after a decline of 0.8% beforehand. This beat the forecast of 1.0%. The economy continues to grow after being reopened, and consumer spending is expected to be a key driver in the economic recovery. The RBA is projecting that GDP and employment will reach pre-pandemic levels later in 2021, which is 6-12 months faster than the central bank had expected. In addition to stronger domestic demand, Australia stands to benefit from a more robust global economy, which will translate into stronger demand for Australian exports. This bodes well for the Australian dollar, which has a tight correlation with commodity prices. Despite the rosy economic picture, the RBA remains cautious and has not given any indication that it plans to raise interest rates or even taper its QE programme. At its last meeting, the bank noted that inflation remains low and below the central bank's target, which is between 2-3 per cent. The bank added that although the employment picture has improved, unemployment still remains too high for its liking. AUD/USD is putting strong resistance at 0.7813. Above, there is resistance at 0.7887. On the downside, there is support at 0.7688, followed by support at 0.7627
by OANDA