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U.S. Dollar / Australian Dollar

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AUDUSD Technical AnalysisThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting while dropping the tightening bias in the statement but adding a slight pushback against a March rate cut. The US CPI beat expectations for the second consecutive month with the disinflationary trend reversing. The US PPI beat expectations across the board by a big margin. The US Jobless Claims beat expectations with the data remaining steady. The latest US PMIs increased further from the prior month with the Manufacturing PMI beating expectations and the Services PMI missing. The US Retail Sales missed expectations across the board by a big margin. The market now expects the first rate cut in June. AUD The RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected with the central bank maintaining the usual tightening bias and data-dependent language. The recent Monthly CPI report missed expectations across the board which was a welcome development for the RBA. The latest labor market report missed expectations by a big margin. The wage price index surprised to the upside as wage growth in Australia remains strong. The latest Australian PMIs showed the Manufacturing PMI falling back into contraction while the Services PMI jumped back into expansion. The market expects the first rate cut in August. AUDUSD Technical Analysis 1-Day Timeframe On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD broke above the key resistance level where we had also the red 21 moving average for confluence and extended the rally to new highs. The buyers are targeting the next resistance at 0.6623 but the momentum seems to be waning a bit. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely wait for the price to reach the 0.6620 level before piling in for new shorts or looking for some key breakouts on the lower timeframes. AUDUSD Technical Analysis 4-hour Timeframe On the 4-hour chart, we can see that the price has been diverging with the MACD recently. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, we got pullbacks into the red 21 moving average where the buyers kept on stepping in to target the 0.6620 level. The moving average and the black trendline will now be key levels for the sellers as they will need to break through them to gain more conviction for a bearish trend and target new lows. AUDUSD Technical Analysis 1-hour Timeframe Timeframe On the 1-hour chart, we can see that we have a resistance zone around the 0.6580 level which the buyers will need to break to increase the bullish bets into the 0.6620 level. There is no important data till next Tuesday, so the market will likely be driven by the technicals until then. follow us for more trading ideas.
Long
by forexinworld
audusd has potential on short side so here is the reasonAUD/USD (Australian Dollar/US Dollar) appears to be poised for a corrective movement towards the 39.2% and potentially the 50% Fibonacci retracement levels, followed by a reversal from the resistance zone. After experiencing a prolonged uptrend, AUD/USD is showing signs of exhaustion or overextension, suggesting a possible retracement. This correction is likely to target key Fibonacci retracement levels, notably the 39.2% and possibly the 50% retracement levels, which are often considered significant support areas in technical analysis. As the price approaches these retracement levels, traders should pay close attention to potential reversal signals, such as candlestick patterns or divergences in momentum indicators, to anticipate the end of the correction phase and a potential reversal. Moreover, there is a significant resistance zone that may act as a barrier to further upside movement. This resistance could coincide with the Fibonacci retracement levels, reinforcing the potential for a reversal from this area. In summary, the outlook for AUD/USD suggests a corrective move towards the 39.2% and possibly the 50% Fibonacci retracement levels, followed by a reversal from the resistance zone. Traders should closely monitor price action and key technical levels for confirmation of this scenario.
Short
by jadhaodipak999
1
AUDUSD probes month-long bearish channel on China’s returnMarket sentiment improved early Monday as China returned to trading after a week-long Lunar New Year holiday. With this, AUDUSD justifies its role as a risk barometer and cheers optimism at the biggest customer, namely China, by challenging a one-month-old bearish trend. However, the road towards the north appears long and bumpy before convincing the Aussie bulls. That said, the stated falling channel’s top line, close to 0.6555, guards the immediate run-up of the pair ahead of the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Following that, a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since early January, between 0.6620 and 0.6640, appears a tough nut to crack for the bulls before taking control. On the contrary, the AUDUSD pairs’ retreat will aim for the 0.6500 round figure before convincing the bears to target the monthly low of near 0.6440. It’s worth noting, however, that the bottom line of a one-month-long descending trend channel, close to 0.6430 at the latest, will restrict further downside of the pair. In a case where the quote remains weak past 0.6430, a slew of support levels around 0.6400, 0.6340 and 0.6320 will try pushing back the bearish moves. However, the pair’s downside past 0.6320 will make it vulnerable to slump toward the previous yearly low surrounding 0.627. Overall, AUDUSD is likely to extend the latest rebound as upbeat sentiment joins firmer MACD and RSI signals. However, the room towards the north appears limited and the upside is also dependent on the RBA and FOMC Minutes.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bears can ignore post-RBA rebound from 11-week lowAUDUSD prints the first daily gain in three while bouncing off the lowest level since mid-November after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the benchmark rates unchanged. The corrective bounce also justified the RSI (14) line’s rebound from the oversold territory. However, the bearish MACD signals and the previous week’s confirmation of the Head-and-Shoulders (H&S) bearish chart pattern keeps the Aussie pair sellers unless the quote jumps back beyond a convergence of the neckline and the 100-SMA, around 0.6525-30 by the press time. It’s worth noting, however, that the quote’s sustained trading beyond 0.6530 isn’t an open invitation to the Aussie pair buyers as multiple tops marked during late January and early February near 0.6620 and the 50-SMA hurdle of 0.6650 will act as the final defense of the sellers. Meanwhile, the AUDUSD pair’s fresh downside needs validation from the latest multi-day bottom surrounding 0.6470 and the mid-November swing low of around 0.6450. Following that, the odds of witnessing the Aussie pair’s quick fall toward the November 10 swing low of 0.6338 and then to the theoretical target of the H&S, namely the 0.6190 can’t be ruled out. That said, the previous yearly low marked in October around 0.6270 may act as an intermediate halt during the fall between 0.6338 and 0.6190. To sum up, the AUDUSD pair’s recovery remains off the table despite the pair’s latest gains.
by MTradingGlobal
1
AUDUSD Trade PlanTrend- Down Sentiment- Bearish On Friday, AUD/USD experienced a sharp decline, breaching a key support level at 0.6525 and ending the week below it, resulting in a bearish technical signal for the pair. Should the downward momentum persist in upcoming trading sessions, the next support levels to watch are 0.6460 and 0.6395. Conversely, if market sentiment improves and the Australian dollar undergoes a reversal, resistance levels can be identified at 0.6525, followed by 0.6575 and 0.6600. Overcoming these resistance levels may prove challenging for bulls, but a successful breach could lead to a potential retest of the 0.6625 region
Short
by KhanXBT
AUDUSD lures bears amid softer Aussie inflation, 0.6670 eyedAUDUSD struggles to defend the bounce from a two-month-old rising support line and the 200-SMA amid softer Australia Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Also attracting offers for the Aussie pair is the risk-off mood and an impending death cross on the four-hour chart, a bearish moving average crossover between the 50-SMA and the 100-SMA. It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI and MACD suggest a slower grind to the south. That said, the aforementioned trend line stretched from early November and the 200-SMA, around 0.6685-75 at the latest, appears crucial for the pair sellers, a clear break of which will help bears to aim for early December peaks surrounding 0.6620. Following that, an eight-week-old horizontal support area near 0.6540-45 will be the last defense of the buyers. Meanwhile, a convergence of the 50-SMA and the 100-SMA, close to 0.6750-60 at the latest, guards the immediate upside of the AUDUSD pair. Should the quote remain firmer past 0.6760, the previous monthly high of around 0.6870 and the mid-2023 peaks near 0.6900 could test the Aussie pair buyers ahead of the 0.7000 psychological magnet and last year’s top of 0.7157. Overall, the AUDUSD buyers appear running out of steam but the bears need validation from 0.6670 to enter the ring.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD: Australian Dollar Hovers at Near 2-Week LowsThe Australian dollar held below $0.678, hovering at its lowest levels in nearly two weeks, weighed down by a rebound in the US dollar as investors pared back aggressive bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. A cautious turn in risk sentiment also pressured the aussie, with stocks and commodities retreating sharply from recent highs while Treasury yields rallied . Domestically, investors continued to assess the outlook for Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy. Analysts are suggesting that the RBA will trail global peers in shifting to an easing cycle as it has not hiked as aggressively as other central banks, probably resulting in shallower or later cuts. Moreover, inflation in Australia proved more persistent than in other economies , with RBA Governor Michele Bullock saying recently that the challenge is “increasingly homegrown and demand-driven”.
by Claramellorforex
Australian Dollar Hits Fresh 5-Month Highs : LONGETRM ANALYSISThe Australian dollar appreciated to around $0.683, scaling fresh five month highs as cooling US inflation reinforced bets that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates next year. Lower rate expectations also lifted commodity prices, providing a boost to Australia’s resource-heavy industries and currency. Meanwhile, analysts suggested that the Reserve Bank of Australia will likely trail global peers in shifting to an easing cycle as it has not hiked as aggressively as other central banks, probably resulting in shallower or later cuts. Inflation in Australia also proved more persistent than in other economies, with RBA Governor Michele Bullock saying last month that the challenge is “increasingly homegrown and demand-driven,” and that bringing the print below 3% from about 5.5% now is likely to be a drawn out process. Markets do not see the central bank cutting rates until late 2024. For Signals details in bio
by Claramellorforex
AUSDUSD shortFOREXCOM:AUDUSD Hello traders , here is the full multi time frame analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. wait for more Smart Money to develop before taking any position . I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied... Keep trading Hustle hard Markets can be Unpredictable, research before trading. Disclaimer: This trade idea is based on Smart money concept and is for informational purposes only. Trading involves risks; seek professional advice before making any financial decisions. Informational only!!!!
Short
by Phinics
AUDUSD stays bullish beyond 0.6650 resistance-turned-supportAUDUSD edges higher past 0.6700 after posting the biggest weekly gains since the mid-November. In doing so, the Aussie pair defends Wednesday’s upside break of descending trend line stretched from early February, now immediate support near 0.6650. The resistance break joins upbeat RSI (14) to keep the buyers hopeful. However, the MACD signals appear less bullish and RSI line also nears the overbought conditions. The same suggests limited upside room for the buyers to cheer, which in turn highlights May’s high of around 0.6820 as an immediate upside hurdle to trace. Following that, a 10-month-old horizontal resistance area surrounding 0.6900-6920 will be a tough nut to crack for the bulls. Meanwhile, a downside break of the previous resistance line near 0.6650, now immediate support, could quickly drag the AUDUSD prices to the 200-SMA support surrounding 0.6575. It’s worth noting, however, that tops marked in late August and early September, as well as comprising December’s bottom, will challenge the Aussie pair’s downside past 0.6575 near 0.6525-20. Additionally, a seven-week-old rising support line near 0.6480-75 will act as the final defense for the buyers before giving control to the bears. Overall, AUDUSD is likely to revisit the mid-2023 peaks during the year-end trading. The pullback moves, which are less likely, remain unimportant beyond 0.6475.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bears have bumpy road ahead, 0.6460 is crucialAUDUSD remains pressured on early Monday, after snapping a three-week uptrend by the end of Friday. In doing so, the Aussie pair justifies its risk-barometer status as traders await this week’s key data/events comprising the US inflation, multiple PMIs and top-tier central bank meetings. In addition to the market’s anxiety, the bearish MACD signals and a downward-sloping RSI (14) line also favors the Aussie pair sellers in targeting a four-month-old horizontal support surrounding 0.6520-15. However, the quote’s weakness past 0.6515 appears difficult unless the bears manage to conquer the 0.6460 support confluence comprising the 100-SMA and a six-week-old rising support line. Following that, the pair becomes vulnerable to decline towards an area near 0.6360 that includes multiple levels marked since the mid-August. Meanwhile, the AUDUSD pair’s recovery needs validation from the 0.6600 and the scheduled catalysts to convince buyers. Even so, the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of the pair’s June-October downside, close to 0.6660, will precede the monthly high of 0.6690 and the 0.6700 to test the Aussie bulls before giving them control. In a case where the quote remain firmer past 0.6700, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of around 0.6770 and June’s peak near 0.6900 will be in the spotlight. Overall, AUDUSD is likely to remain pressured during the key week but the road toward the south appears long and bumpy.
by MTradingGlobal