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U.S. DOLLAR / AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR REFERENCE RATE

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USDAUX trade ideas

AUDUSD retreats from 0.6700 as China inflation easesAUDUSD consolidates the first weekly gain in three as softer inflation numbers from the biggest customers, namely China, drag the quote from a fortnight-old falling resistance line, around the 0.6700 round figure. The pullback move also retreats as the RSI eases from the overbought territory, which in turn suggests the Aussie pair’s further weakness towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of May-Jun upside, near 0.6630. However, a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since June 01, close to 0.6585-95, appears a tough nut to crack for the bears. In a case where the sellers dominate past 0.6585, the odds of witnessing a slump toward the late May swing low of around 0.6458 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, the aforementioned two-week-long descending resistance line around 0.6700 guards the immediate upside of the AUDUSD pair ahead of the 100-SMA hurdle surrounding 0.6715. Following that, the late June high of near 0.6720 and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of near 0.6800 can challenge the risk-barometer pair’s upside before directing the bulls toward the previous monthly high of around 0.6900. Overall, AUDUSD’s previous weekly gain appears a one-off affair unless the US inflation signals keep softening.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD run-up hinges on 0.6700 break, market’s confidence in RBAThe odds of witnessing further AUDUSD upside appear dicey as a convergence of the 21-EMA and 50-EMA, around the 0.6700 round figure, challenges the bulls, together with the RBA’s inability to defend the hawkish bias. However, a three-month-old ascending support line, close to 0.6600 at the latest, limits the Aussie pair’s downside. Even if the quote drops below 0.6600, the late May swing high of around 0.6560 will test the bears before directing them to the yearly low marked in May around 0.6455. It’s worth noting that the MACD signals seem bearish and the RSI (14) isn’t impressive enough to lure the AUDUSD buyers. If at all the RBA offers another hawkish surprise and propels the quote past the 0.6700 hurdle, the aforementioned oscillators and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its February-May downside, near 0.6730, will precede the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.6810 to challenge the Aussie buyers. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 0.6810, the previous monthly high of near 0.6900 will act as the last defense of the bears. Overall, AUDUSD is less likely to end up on the bull’s radar unless successfully crossing the 0.6700, as well as backed by the hawkish RBA decision.
by MTradingGlobal
Who's Right? Hawk Economists vs. Dove Traders - RBA meets Today Who's Right? Hawk Economists vs. Dove Traders - RBA meets Today Yesterday, the AUD/USD experienced its third consecutive day of growth. However, the upward trend is expected to face obstacles during Tuesday's trading session due to the impending Reserve Bank of Australia meeting. Despite some analysts adopting a more hawkish stance and predicting a rate hike as the most likely outcome of today's meeting, money market traders have reduced their forecast to a one-in-three chance of an increase, down from 40 percent on Friday afternoon. Although inflation numbers in Australia have slowed down, the Consumer Price Index remains above the target range, while the key interest rate stands at 4.1 percent, below the CPI. Furthermore, recent remarks from RBA Governor Lowe have maintained a hawkish tone, leaving the possibility of further rate hikes open, even after two unexpected increases. As US markets remain closed in observance of Independence Day, the AUD/USD has been consolidating at 0.66700 prior to the RBA decision. With conflicting views from economists and traders, the meeting's outcome has the potential to inject some volatility into the pair. In terms of potential resistance levels, the initial zone to watch out for is around 0.66900, followed by 0.67200. However, it is important to note that considering the RSI's decline below the 60.00 level, the upward momentum has weakened. Nevertheless, the overall inclination remains biased towards the upside. Therefore, exploring higher levels may not be immediately feasible.
by BlackBull_Markets
AUDUSD bulls have tough time regaining control on Australia inflAUDUSD remains on the back foot at the three-week low after posting the biggest weekly loss since August 2022 on Australia inflation day, breaking convergence of the 200-SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement of its late May to early June run-up on downbeat Aussise Monthly CPI. Having breached the stated key support, the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracements, respectively near 0.6625 and 0.6550, act as the final defense of the bulls before directing the downside towards the year-to-date (YTD) low marked in May around 0.6460. On the contrary, the support-turned-resistance confluence around 0.6670, comprising the 200-SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement, guards the quote’s immediate upside ahead of an eight-day-long falling resistance line surrounding 0.6715. Following that, the 100-SMA level of around 0.6750 will restrict the AUDUSD pair’s further upside. Should the Aussie pair remains firmer past 0.6750, a broad resistance area comprising multiple levels marked since May 10, near 0.6805-15, appears a tough nut to crack for the bulls.
by MTradingGlobal