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U.S. DOLLAR / AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR REFERENCE RATE

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USDAUX trade ideas

AUDUSD keeps door open for bears targeting 0.6800Despite the recent rebound, AUDUSD holds onto the downside break of fortnight-old support amid an absence of oversold RSI, which in turn hints at the pair’s likely to rush towards refreshing yearly low. However, the latest bottoms surrounding 0.6850 and 0.6830 may act as intermediate halts during the fall. That said, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of June 03-16, at 0.6800, will be in the spotlight. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 0.6800, the late 2018 lows near 0.6745 could become a buffer before directing the bears towards the 2019 trough close to 0.6670. Meanwhile, the corrective pullback may poke the support-turned-resistance line from mid-June, at 0.6900 by the press time, a break of which could escalate the recovery towards the weekly resistance line close to 0.6955. It should be noted, however, that the 100-SMA and the 200-SMA, respectively near 0.6990 and 0.7035, could challenge the AUDUSD bulls afterward. Should the prices rally beyond 0.7035, the June 16 peak of 0.7069 might act as the last defense for bears. To sum up, AUDUSD has already flashed a bearish signal to refresh yearly lows, mainly due to its risk-barometer status.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD funnels down to a weekly triangle breakout AUDUSD gyrates inside the one-week-old symmetrical triangle after the RBA Minutes and Governor Philip Lowe’s speech. Given the RBA’s hawkish bias and recently firmer RSI, the Aussie pair is likely to cross the stated triangle to the upside, which in turn highlights 0.7015 as immediate resistance. However, the 200-SMA level surrounding 0.7065, as well as the early June swing low near 0.7140, will act as important hurdles afterward. Should the quote manage to stay firmer past 0.7140, an upside towards the 0.7200 threshold and then to the 0.7230 resistance level can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, AUDUSD bears await a clear downside break of the aforementioned triangle’s lower line, around 0.6920 by the press time. Following that, the monthly low near 0.6850 and May’s bottom of 0.6828 could gain the seller’s attention. In a case where the quote drops below 0.6828, the downside momentum may aim for late 2019 lows close to 0.6680-75. Overall, the AUDUSD eyes to consolidate the previous two-week downtrend but a clear break of the 0.7015 support is necessary for the pair’s advances.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD teases bears ahead of RBA’s rate hikeAfter failing to cross the 200-day EMA, AUDUSD broke a three-week-old support line and the 50-day EMA as traders await the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) second rate hike of 2022. Given the steady RSI and recently bullish MACD signals, the quote is likely to rebound towards the 200-day EMA hurdle surrounding 0.7270. However, a clear run-up beyond the previous support line, near 0.7240 by the press time, becomes necessary to recall the pair buyers. The follow-on advances past 0.7270 could aim for a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of April-May, around 0.7345. Should the pair manage to stay firmer past 0.7345, the odds of witnessing a rally towards late April swing high near 0.7460 can’t be ruled out. Alternatively, a clear downside break of the 50-day EMA level surrounding 0.7170 won’t hesitate to break the 0.7100 threshold while seeking a retest of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.7025. Following that, 0.6945 could act as the last defense for buyers before directing the sellers towards the yearly low near 0.6830. Overall, AUDUSD bulls appear to run out of steam as traders await the RBA’s rate increase. Given the widely priced-in move, bears could search for any hints of no more rate lifts to retake control.
by MTradingGlobal
AUD/USD Possible ScenariosAs said, a 25 bps hike has been already priced in. If somehow the RBA decided to slow down and go for 0.10% or 0.15%, AUD/USD could come under selling pressure, although if the current market’s optimism persists, the slide should be limited. On the other hand, a 40 bps hike plus hints on more interest rate raises coming would result in the AUD/USD pair surging to fresh monthly highs. From a technical point of view, AUD/USD is battling to overcome the 50% retracement of its latest daily slide at 0.7245, measured between 0.7660 and 0.6828. The daily chart shows that technical indicators are correcting overbought conditions, although the RSI has stabilized well above its midlines. At the same time, the pair is hovering around a flat 100 SMA, while a bullish 20 SMA heads firmly north far below the current level. Overall, the downside seems limited. An immediate support level is 0.7140, the 38.2% retracement of the aforementioned decline. A break below the latter could be the beginning of a bearish movement that could extend towards the 0.7000/20 region. On the other hand, and beyond 0.7245, the pair will likely meet resistance in the 0.7260 price zone, where it topped last week. Gains beyond the area will anticipate another leg north for the upcoming sessions.
by rakesh-ror-m30signal