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U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar

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USDCAD Reacts to CPI & Debt Ceiling WoesUSDCAD Reacts to CPI & Debt Ceiling Woes Two big events affecting the USD/CAD pair include the CPI reading from Canada this week as well as the ongoing debt ceiling crisis in the US. In April, the monthly Canadian headline CPI surged by 0.7%, resulting in an annual rate of 4.4% compared to the previous 4.3%. This increase exceeded the consensus estimates by three-tenths of a percent in both instances. Consequently, the USD/CAD experienced a 0.4% decrease, reaching 1.3404, before rebounding to a high of 1.3535 USD/CAD has now also breached its 200-day simple moving average on the downside, closing below it to reinforce the bearish signal. Strengthening this assertion is that the Bank of Canada had recently put a halt to its tightening campaign, having raised interest rates by 425 basis points since March 2022. However, they indicated that this pause was dependent on the inflation outlook aligning with the forecasted trajectory. It is unlikely that this week's CPI data meets this requirement. Offsetting the positive news for the Canadian dollar is the prevailing optimism in the United States regarding the government's ability to avoid defaulting on its debt. Following emergency discussions at the White House, President Joe Biden and Republican leaders cautiously expressed hope for a potential agreement to raise the US debt ceiling. The agreement must be reached and approved by both houses of Congress before the federal government exhausts its funds to cover expenses, which could occur as soon as June 1 (only two weeks away). Despite House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy stating that the two parties remain considerably apart, he believes that a deal could be achieved by the end of the current week.
by BlackBull Markets
USDCAD bears again place their eyes on six-month-old supportUSDCAD again fails to remain beyond the 200-DMA, suggesting another attempt in breaking an upward-sloping support line from November 2022, close to 1.3320 at the latest. The lower highs in the last two months and downbeat oscillators seem to put the Loonie pair bears in a better position this time. Hence, a break of the key support line appears more likely, which in turn can quickly drag the quote to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of April-October upside, near 1.3190. However, a 13-month-old ascending trend line, close to 1.3130, may challenge the bears afterward before giving them control. Meanwhile, the USDCAD pair’s recovery moves may again try to float above the 200-DMA hurdle, around 1.3460 at the latest. In doing so, staying stable above the 1.3500 threshold may become their target before eyeing the falling resistance line from March, around 1.3585. In a case where the bulls manage to remain in the driver’s seat past 1.3585, the previous monthly high surrounding 1.3670 and the late 2022 peak near 1.3705 will be on their radar prior to hitting the yearly top of 1.3860. Overall, USDCAD is likely to remain pressured and is a strong candidate to challenge the key support lines.
by MTradingGlobal
USDCAD stays on bear’s radar as US inflation, BoC loomsBe it a clear downside break of the 10-week-old ascending trend line or sustained trading below the 200-SMA, not to forget the latest fall below one-week-long rising trend line, USDCAD has it all to keep its place on the bear’s radar. The quote’s further downside, however, hinges on the Bank of Canada (BoC) monetary policy decision and the US Consumer Price Index data, as well as the FOMC Meeting Minutes. That said, the monthly low of around 1.3400 and multiple levels marked near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s February-March upside, close to 1.3390, could test the Loonie pair sellers. In a case where the bears keep the reins past 1.3390, February’s low of around 1.3260 will be in focus. Meanwhile, USDCAD recovery initially needs to cross the weekly support-turned-resistance of around 1.3500 before poking the 50% Fibonacci retracement hurdle, around 1.3560, to convince intraday buyers. Even so, the previous support line from early February, close to 1.3615-20, could challenge the upside momentum. If at all the Loonie pair manages to cross the 1.3620 hurdle, a convergence of the 200-SMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement will act as the final defense for bears near 1.3630. Should the quote remains firmer past 1.3630, backed by price-positive fundamentals, a run-up towards 1.3740 and 1.3800 can’t be ruled out. To sum up, USDCAD is well-set for further downside on a key day for the pair traders.
by MTradingGlobal