NVO USThe decline in Novo Nordisk shares is not the result of a single factor, but rather the result of a complex set of fundamental issues: weakening financial performance, loss of competitive advantage in key products, and increased strategic risks.
While negative data on Eli Lilly's weight loss pill in August 2025 triggered a temporary optimistic rebound in NVO shares, it failed to reverse the overall downward trend caused by the company's deeper structural problems.
Now, in order:
Operating and Financial Results
Sales and operating profit growth forecasts for 2025 have been lowered twice; Q3 2025 results below expectations
Operating margin fell to 41.7% from 44.7% (YoY), gross margin decreased to 81.0% from 84.6%
Free cash flow declined 11% due to a sharp increase in capital expenditures
Competitive pressure:
Superiority of Eli Lilly products.
Zepbound (Eli Lilly) demonstrates greater effectiveness in weight loss (20.2% vs. 13.7% for Wegovy); Mounjaro overtook Ozempic in diabetes sales.
NVO's CagriSema failed to meet expectations in clinical trials.
Companies such as Viking Therapeutics, Altimmune, Roche, and Amgen are developing promising anti-obesity drugs, threatening the Novo Nordisk-Eli Lilly duopoly.
The company recently agreed to set a "maximum fair price" for Medicare under the Inflation Reduction Act.
As a result of the deal, the price of Wegovy for certain patient categories is also expected to drop to $149 per month, compared to the current starting price of $1,349. Such a sharp price reduction will directly impact revenue and profits.
Novo Nordisk's share of the US GLP-1 market fell to 43%, while Eli Lilly's grew to 57%.
To protect profitability, Maziar's new CEO, Mike Dusdar, initiated stringent cost-cutting measures, including a hiring freeze, layoffs, and a 23.8% reduction in R&D spending. While this may support cash flow in the short term, this strategy raises concerns about long-term innovation. Eight R&D projects were terminated, potentially slowing the market launch of promising next-generation drugs such as CagriSema and oral semaglutide.
NVO shares attempted a reversal around $60, but then this figure became a mirror level, and investors sold en masse from this price, which is certainly concerning. The chart shows volumes around $60. Be that as it may, the price is now below $50, and we can see the market trying to catch a low, trying to cling to any level. We're expecting a lower price.
