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The S&P 500 closed down last night after what looks like a three-day bounce that ended an a-b-c bounce back. Three waves up after five waves down sets us up for the next five waves down in wave 3. Wave 3 should take us back below the Wave 1 low of 5832

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Steepening cycles in the US yield curve have preceded stock market crashes in the past, and so far, this time is no different. As measured by the difference between the 10-year bond yield and the 2-year bond yield, the yield curve is now rising and made a higher high last night. The continued trend is toward a risk-off by investors out of equities into the safety...

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After going back to the 2021 highs Russell 2000 is selling off. The entire pattern appears like a expanding triangle. We can go back to test the lower line of the expanding pattern if this is a massive topping process

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Ahead of the FOMC meeting, the dollar index shows no signs of relenting; it is holding above the 20dma and subdividing into waves i and ii of 3 as a third wave is just starting. The idea that the FED will lower rates does not seem to matter to the Dollar.

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The DJI is falling right into the FED meeting will it recover in the aftermath. Prices are close to the lower band that can act as the final support. Is this wave i of a bear market? Lots of questions.

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As Bollinger bands tighten and momentum comes closer to zero the odds of more upside get limited even as the bias is still positive short term and negative medium term

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After today's weak GDP print the Indian 10 year GSEC yields fell sharply in anticipation of rate cuts from the RBI, and this saw the rupee weaken as well in after trade. Does this mean that the RBI is going to cut interest rates at the up coming rate setting meeting? It is a tight rope walk but who knows they went neutral last time and might as well toe the line.

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Today's move in the Nifty can be called a breakaway gap - a pattern that often involves breaking out of a congestion zone to start a trend - more often than not, that trend is in the opposite direction. This means that breakaway gaps mark trend reversals. Toda,y the Nifty is breaking out of the previous falling channel and closing above the 20dma. If this gap...

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The Nifty RSI went to 28 and is now back above 30, out of the oversold region. The five-wave fall ended, and we started a bounce or rally. The next major resistance is near 24537, near the wave IV high. Lastly, the 20dma was a spoiler for the last bounce attempt and is placed at 24031. If that cannot do it, the bears will cover everything.

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After a symmetrical triangle in wave 4, little did I think that wave 5 would end up being a multi month ED. I mean we have been trying to mark this 5th wave count for months and it just keeps extending. In the end we redraw the lines again and again. Today again we are at the top end of the range and if prices stop here we can complete wave e of 5 and form a top....

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Lower interest rates were supposed to be good for banks and small caps. These indices are making record gains today even as bond yields rise. The bank index is up over 8% taking off to new highs. So the markets are trying to read into the real impact of the moves that Donald Trump might make and banks seem happy about it.

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The DXY has been pushing higher for weeks now but on election day we maybe discounting the risk and therefore do not react. The FED also speaks tonight. Watch this key resistance level at 105.85 and if we do not cross it the setup could still be bearish the dollar eventually. AFter all the FED will have to buy these bonds if they fall too much. Let us see what the...

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As the rate cycle turns US bank indices are breaking out into trend and these are big multi month trends. So the outperformance of banks in the US is going to look like technology stocks did last year.

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Silver did a nice shakeout of weak hands by falling below the channel lines but it is now back and attempting to get back above the averages. The RMI is already bullish and momentum is picking up from the 40wema. Wave III higher is unfolding that should take it back to new highs above the wave I high of 32.50$

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It is rare to see a new rally start, especially as we head into election season, which is often lame. But a complex correction marked as w-x-y-x-z is already complete on the DJI, making it ready to move. The up move that has started is probably wave 5 of the structure and should eventually carry the DJI to new all-time highs.

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Diffusion indicators can be funny, and after the recent panic selling, US stocks are seeing a higher low in the number of stocks above 50dma. Now, the reading has bumped back higher to 59% as the market is rallying. So, this looks like a strong sign of stability. Nothing broke down despite the volatility.

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VIX does not go to 65 just because it got a mood swing. Such moves are slow and steady during the stages of a bear market. After spending time in the 30-50 range we breakout to 80 in the last stage of a bear market. If you spike to 65 one day and close at 35 or lower, then it is a spike and best called the capitulation of bulls . So, it should usually mean that...

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The downside in Copper is mostly over because based on Elliott wave analysis we are at the bottom end of an ABC channel where C+A has been achieved. So this is a waiting game for the momentum indicator to give us buy signals.