protrader1969

protrader1969

As compared to nifty drop in Banknifty (BNF) was much more pronounced. From high to low it was a good 638 point drop. I expected a slight drop finishing a base like candle with may be big wicks. What we got was a strong bodied red candle with high very close to open and low too quite close to closing price thereby closing below 20 & 200 DEMA. These levels did not...

protrader1969

As far as Nifty was concerned not much happenned today (compared to yesterday) and it was expected. On lower side, it hit 20 & 200 DEMA and drew support (on daily chart). Due to massive rally yesterday some drop was expected as I wrote yesterday and that we saw in Nifty (though in BNF it went overboard). So range for Nifty movement too remains same. FIIs were net...

protrader1969

Not in my wildest dreams I would have thought that BNF would rally with such strong vengeance. Yeaterday, I wrote about possibility of buying emerging in key banknifty stocks since these were at crucial fibonacci levels and hence gave 2 selling areas. Because I thought that Nifty on weak footing may not allow BNF to rise much. I was completely wrong. Both stop...

protrader1969

It was disastrous day for bears. Nifty climbed up by 186 points and Banknifty by more than 1000 whopping points! Those who have read my yesterday's post on Banknifty would recall that I had written about strong buying coming in Banknifty (which would push nifty up) since HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Kotak bank were at their critical fibonacci levels. Today, at close,...

protrader1969

Let's skip Option chain data since it shows an obvious range of 27500 - 28000. On Charts, Banknifty (BNF, actually Niftybank- cash) finished as a red base-like candle with lower low and lower high than previous candle.On a 15 min chart, one can see that BNF did not break its low made during first 15 minutes, throughout the day. In the last one hour when Nifty was...

protrader1969

Hi Guys, welcome to result season Q2FY20. 4 Nifty companies (Infosys, TCS, Indusind bank, Hindustan Unilever) are going to announce their results for Q2 before the end of the week. Let's examine other relevant data. 1) FII & DII data: The provisional data for 7th October shows that FIIs were net sellers by 494 crs and DIIs were net buyers by 905 Crs. One...

protrader1969

Frankly there is nothing that inspires confidence in Bulls except that both Nifty and BankNifty both reversed their downward journey from junction of their 20 DEMA and DEMA. And for that reason only we might hope that it must have some strength. Otherwise its all bad news for tomorrow. DJIA is currently 570 points down, second big drop in a row if it remains near...

protrader1969

Not much has changed in the weekend. The limits remain same, the fundamentals remain same and also the news flow is near about neutral. Good thing for Indian economy is that INR has improved by 33 paise and Brent crude is trading at less than $62 per barrel in international market Lets check local data. 1) FII & DII data: Provisional figures say that FIIs were net...

protrader1969

It was a topsy turvy ride for Banknifty traders today. Similar was in Nifty but this was more vigorous. 1) Option chain data: At the ATM strike of 30000, just like NIfty, there is matching build-up in BNF too- Total Call OI=2.08 lakhs, Call writing=88,080 as against total Put OI=2.99 lakhs, Put writing=2.19 lakhs. So as you can see, out of total OI of around 3...

protrader1969

It was a roller-coaster expiry day, but then it was expected. For next month and for next week signals will start developing in next few days. 1) As per provisional figures for today, FIIs and DIIs were both Net buyers. The direction and figures are not very important for me today because you really can't know the intent and direction when you have to square off...

protrader1969

Please read this post along with my post on Nifty to get complete idea. Tables turned today and Banknifty and Nifty went south. More surprising is the fact that DIIs today were Net Sellers. I do not remember seeing that figure negative during prolonged selling phase by FIIs. Now it seems they are booking profits and adjusting or rather improving their NAV. Option...

protrader1969

Tables have turned it seems. Yesterday I wrote that I am getting mixed signals, today I got reverse signals! The effect of corporate tax cut seems to be going off and effect of demand slowdown, dent in fiscal deficit and loss in govt revenue seems to be taking precedence. Let's look at the data- 1) FII & DII data: Provisional data shows that FIIs were Net sellers...

protrader1969

I do not know why Banknifty (BNF) today fell. If we see that major beneficiaries of this corporate tax cut to 25% are banks, we also know that 5 major banks- HDFC Bank, ICICI, Axis, Kotak Mahindra bank & SBI account for more than 85% of BNF weightage all get a straight 14-16% earnings increment [a tax cut of around 10% translates to over 15% of earnings increase ...

protrader1969

There are mixed signals now. No, we are not looking as bearish as we were earlier but bullish steam too seems to have cooled off. Nifty today made a perfect doji candle which in itself suggests indecision or pausing a bit. Lets us check other data too. 1) FII & DII data: As per provisional data for today, FIIs were Net sellers by 828 Crs and DIIs were Net buyers...

protrader1969

Today was an important day for a stock market participant whether he is a trader, an investor, retail or from an institution. The last 2 days of weekends must have been spent on analyzing, number crunching and strategizing by analysts of big institutions. A lot were waiting to see which direction market takes from hereon. Nifty today opened with a big gap of 268...

protrader1969

PAUSE. Recognize the importance of yellow traffic light. Traders who are on long side, pause a bit. Traders who are on short side, pause a bit. Friday's announcements have thrown all old valuations of stocks out of window and all the stocks will have to be rerated by fundamental experts. Thankfully, weekend must have given all the experts, analysts enough time to...

protrader1969

Please read this post along with that on Nifty to get complete perspective. Today was one such rare day when all 12 component banks of Banknifty (BNF) ended up in red. Only HDFC bank after final adjustment at the end of market close (and adjusting for 1:2 split) ended up marginally above yesterday's close. Such was the negative breadth in BNF as well. 1) Option...

protrader1969

Even the biggest pessimist on Indian economy wouldn't have guessed the severity of today's fall! The signals were better than day before yesterday. Oil price in control, Rupee appreciated, Fed rate cut by 25 bps and still Nifty falls by around 135 points! Let alone recovery, atleast the stop in fall was expected. So tonight also signals are good- Rupee closed at...