sreebhashyam

sreebhashyam

Lots of positive in the big picture than negatives. Pin pricking negatives have not led anyone anywhere. Ahead of budget, Fiscal Deficit, the Government borrowing, dis-investment remains the themes to move on. In the short term, the CASA, where the deposits are growing slower than advances, plus the move of money towards equity drawing the money from the...

sreebhashyam

Not much trouble or discomfort in terms of daily change, save those who watch intra-day moves. The PIP graph is much higher time frame and hence much calmer, large Maribouzu, series of hanging man (wrong to term them with that name as it is not toppish yet). Yesterday move looks some profit taking at higher area than anything else. What is more important...

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It the long wait on the heavy weight HDFC Bank. There are many souls and brave hearts looking for this one to join the race. It rose many times, fell many times, the hope remains, however the last three days action, was a quick burner for the late entrants. The PIP graph with back-drop black it the HDFC Bank, three black gapping black crows, for sure will be...

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It is half time. It is not half full or half empty time. It is about what will spill after it is full or empty. It is rainy time as well as results time. Tech Sector starts with results, unlike the previous cycles this time, that looks on stronger footing. Are we to witness rise first and fall later or rise and rise. Many stories are rinse repeat and hence,...

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We did express that yesterday. Broke the top. Now 0.6690-0.6700 holds for move in the 0.6750 area. Any surprise close above 0.6820 warns of larger upside attack than otherwise, some seeds being sown in this direction. Near term 0.6700-0.6750 15 pip either way bias to buy dips

sreebhashyam

Recall one of the top brokerages, calling banking to underplay relative to other sectors? All let lose there. Results season, men's and boys will be tested. While the big picture here is surely up and above the sky kind of expectation, short term there can be hiccups, some reality check for reasserting later. Known for U turns at the extremes, without any...

sreebhashyam

80 is Golden period, 80K cannot be different. However, in term of Oscillators 80 is termed as overbought. Look for more, the long, short ratio of 3 by the FII usually a sell signal that crosses over 4 plus and still market don't correct. Too much ownership of present or future? FOMO everywhere? The beauty of the markets is opportunities always exit for long...

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Coming to the subject of TA, it is always case of evidence as well as the weight of evidence. The HDFC bank MSCI is the analogy that we will see in the coming day. The picture was pencilled in a few days and the market moved in perfect shape. Did we end the smaller degree wave 3 and are we in far higher towards the 52600-800 or a new ATH. The fading is the...

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It is one thing to anticipate the move for a day, altogether different to anticipate for the week. The stakes are staked. The rotation theme continues, it is IT at the alternative days. One more day of in neck pattern, not a bearish confirmation by any means, unless further evidence seen. The PIP is the shorter from, the steep fall held by the smaller upward...

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That is the interesting part of the Candles. 1. The size as well as shadow of that large candle where you cannot take your eye off is the story. 2. We are weak at the wick. 3. We are staring at the support, 4. We look to the silver line of 1.25 (25 is silver)

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Mind the Gap! The Gap comes, gets filled, filled in three candles in tenor of 6 hours, 6 hours as that is 1/4 of 24 hour market. 1. gap fills and move and closes higher. 2. The wick(ed) story to tell. 3. the doji may not convery anything, the following candle may have some thing to suggest. 4. the three candles continue to tell some, this current candle...

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When it comes to "cut' and the banks, it is usually seen as the rate cut. 1. Bank of Canda cuts rates, inflation higher, (case of regret) 2. Australia does not cut continues the path of hold. 3. ECB cuts but sounds no more rate cuts. 4. Swiss cuts, most likely to ward off any stronger CHF from European political crisis. 5. Our own cuts, one can expect but...

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GST collections come; economic canvass remains on stronger footing. Taken it for granted atmosphere. Shift to select IT continues, PSU for a change not the buzz word to see or hear. While the GST print another absolute high, the rate of YTD remains on the negative trend. Taking of rate of trend, we picked the High of Momentum of very shorter tenor and...

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The two year YTD Annualised yield is closer to 30%, four consecutive half years of positive gains. Previous history 2002 Jan over 2004 Dec, up 300% followed by down 16% Next Comes Jan 2009 till Dec 2011 up 130% down following two half years around 33% The best continuous remains 8 half years that is near four years Jan 2016 till Dec 2019 but returns are 89%...

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Five continuous Quarters of Upmove. Three continues weekly moves. End of half year, all allocations and NAV are taken care, back to the results season, add to that dash of Budget expectations. Coming to expectations, market is in deep in-neck expectations and hence there are some disappointments and then there can be some surprises. It is the net that matters....

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The rise across is Dollar and not the pound fall. If that is the interpretation then read this. Risk Reward is not commensurate to Short the GBP here. While the underlying tone remains weaker. Close will aid some more inputs. Clearly a range of 1.2610-1.2710 Old target of 1.2612 met. Now re-grouping and assertion. One move towards 1.2650-70 is not ruled...

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The rally in this space has bigger headline events. 1. The RBI Dividend. 2. The Bond Inflows. 3. The Rush to the quality and safety. The bonding continues, elsewhere in the world, higher Dollar, Higher inflationary numbers despite the longer the rate cuts, will sure be looked at the cause of this sluggish inflation that is fiscal policies. It is clearly...

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While bears preparing for a hope day, bulls turn one more time the hopeless day. Bear's mauled in style, punching and stretching the limits. No debates no deliberations? While we talk on debate, the first Presidential debate between Trump and Joe Biden later in the day. The deliberation is from the candle stick pattern. They are not exact in conditions, 1....