sreebhashyam

sreebhashyam

When was the last time one witnessed NIFTY in marginal RED while Nifty Bank is roaring Green. The differential move is near 2% If differential is the only factor, then it was in 2022 such a move did unfold, but not with NIFTY near neutral or shade RED and NIFTYBANK deep green. That time both were reasonably up. Are we about to witness move from equity to...

sreebhashyam

With host of data ahead, this one can stumble and fumble all the way. The lines and the reasons marked are sufficient to absorb. Added line is it Death Cross what we are looking, The fib should hold in that case. Direct break below 1.2640 warns more damage

sreebhashyam

Dxy hits 105.80 and retraces, EURO cross still weak against AUD, CHF GBP. if the labelling is correct we are in abc corrective moves. The high of 1.0760 candle high ideally ended and we are in for wave B, held by the 1.0720-1.0760 range, hourly close either one gives some room to move either side. Huge supply around the 1.0780 makes entry above 1.0760 for...

sreebhashyam

The last to fall in Dollar rise, the first to rise in the dollar corrective move down. 0.6630 looks a decent bottom to see or the 0.6615 which was shorter frame supply zone a couple of sessions back. Rising Support line, closer Supply line are hurdles to initiate. Dice in favour of 0.6690-0.6710 while above 0.6615-40

sreebhashyam

Contra to markets, Rise witnessed on the day of huge fall, today fall, this rises. Add dose of contra to the portfolio Clearly larger degree wave 5 in motion.

sreebhashyam

NIFTYBANK when it leads it leaps. The volume in the area of triangle break out is robust and thus the life above 50 K looks set for higher. What is interesting to note, the shift from some of the PSU to large caps that is the takeaway. Points that take bulls some energy. 1. The large verticle fall of near 3900 points is now recaptured more than half way. 2....

sreebhashyam

It is almost two weeks, dismay or miss it the way is the one take away. Those who did nothing are still the best lot. Those who chose to chase have no regrets so far. Not all have gone up, spaces where the establishment, telegraphed have gone higher and higher. From the banking space, there is shift from PSU to large cap, healthy rotation? RBA kept the rates...

sreebhashyam

Nifty bank back to where it was a month ago, negative for the year so far. Optically nothing much has changed, we printed out of the box GDP number, higher GST collections, robust SIP numbers. One cannot blame the PSU pack as their weightage is not that great. Broader profit taking can be the culprit. With inflation assumed to be slowing down, the real print...

sreebhashyam

It is nearly a month of absence from writing, markets continue to do what the charts dictate. The divergence that continued to appear in various spaces finally started yielding, we printed the evening star (marked by the arrow). We are almost flat for the year save 300 points on the nifty, not absorbing the nominal returns forget about the costs of buying. The...

sreebhashyam

It starts with dismay, overnight unwinding continues, NIFTY BANK starts to ascent, aided by Energy, held by the Metals. MSCI rejig has very minor impact on very selective spaces. It looked as if all is well at the close. Two indexes that needs the narrative to move on is VIX, India VIX it hit high and then closed again around 16, this one is not tradable. CBOE...

sreebhashyam

FED Rate cut hopes move down to 50%, an equal chance of 50/50, a clear coin toss! Welcome to the world of financial forecasting. Alan Greenspan famously remarked, "Currency Forecasting is a Coin Toss" The world predicted war, but who in the world predicted war between Pakistan and Iran. Proxies galore, proxies are the way to look for the leaders' footsteps....

sreebhashyam

In the midst of all drama, Oracle Financial Services post 28% rise in a single day. Three things were all over, a. Oracle one day performance, b. Markets meme about Ram Temple c. Persist with HDFC in the long term it is the best place to be. One word to sum, prayers or persistence. 10,000 attempts or 10,000 iterations. Whether it is prayer or punt, focus is...

sreebhashyam

It is easy to ink a story, then endure as an actor (be it trader or investor). Red pill dispenser, a case of choice between remaining in a state of blissful ignorance (blue) or accepting a painful reality (red). Hopes don't build a home, when trust is at stake. The darling of the banking, which "Excel"led quite a century plus, remains the hurt burn of the...

sreebhashyam

It is the story of the retail, recall the famous statement of FM, I don't worry on FII leaving, I have retail to support. Since Covid times, the engagement of the trader in the guise of investor or investor in the guise of trader has multiplied. The sad part is the holding period has shrunk. No one knows what is right or wrong. In hindsight all looks rosy....

sreebhashyam

Bulls carry the Ouch, bears the fitch. Clearly the new "ITC" in town is the HDFC. You like HDFC, but HDFC is not liking you. You can count on it, but it won't count on you. Its time is yet to come, but for sure it will come! Results come, clues from ADR suggests a fall. The fall if any, will frustrate the new buyers. Simply there are many places than this one...

sreebhashyam

One of the pitfalls of not enduring the history or contemporary socio-economic conditions is the dependency on what one believes it worked. Blame it on recency bias. Hardly three weeks back, the who's who of the Financial World pushed the rinse repeat narrative, dollar fall, larger rate cuts, higher equity and no recession. They all looked casual in the first...

sreebhashyam

RBI continues to monitor various Risk Related measures, it is an ongoing process, not an alarm, but a watch. More particularly in the NBFC space. We hear bank's reducing the unused credit card limits as they carry Risk Weight. They throw the depth to which Risk is measured. Not an alarm on the net level. The head and shoulder pattern drawn here is not suggest...

sreebhashyam

Animal spirits leads the life one of adventure and evolution. The beast in the mind. Tesla unveils first time on X, the Beast. While we talk of the beast, debate on inflation vs deflation will rage on. Enough space to start a debate. China continues to obey gravity and chooses the Earth in term of anything but optimistic projections. Japan 2 Y goes back to...