BankNifty Weekly Expiry Analysis BankNifty had 1 extra in this week as the last expiry was on Wednesday. But the extra day was cut short as we had a scheduled holiday (Dussehra) in between. BankNifty did not fall as much as Nifty, it fell only 3.64% ~ 1597pts compared to 3.9% on Nifty. The premiums on the option strikes were not good enough except today. But I am...
Nifty Weekly Expiry Analysis Nifty fell a whopping 765pts ~ 3.90% between the last expiry and today. Most importantly it has retraced all its gains from 28th June to close below 18880. We will cover why that is relevant below, but this fall of 4% signals a reversal in trend. Even though VIX is still below 12%, it is showing a tendency to spike, reassuring the...
BankNifty Analysis BankNifty was a pure support and resistance play today. If you had seen my charts earlier - you would have seen the marked SR zones and noticed how we reacted to 3 of those levels today. Open was gap-up above the 43253 SR level. We went up to 43404 zone and got rejected and came back. We spent some time back at the 43253 levels with no special...
Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Since we are back at the 19310 levels, my point is — the next fall may be as deep as 18880 i.e 430pts ~ 2%. Nifty has no experience trading between these 2 zones earlier, so the supports should be equally powerless. I can mark the top of the candles as support zones, but they would be predictably weak (19190 & 18969).” Nifty...
BankNifty Analysis BankNifty on the other hand had a gap up open, thanks to the excellent results from ICICI Bank. To a great extent, BankNifty resisted the down move on Nifty. Even till 13.55, it was only 0.17% below the previous close. But right after that, it fell like a house of cards. Whatever support ICICI gave till then was undone. ICICI ended up closing...
Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Keeping the global macros in mind, I still wish to continue my bearish stance and expect the 19446 to be taken out on Monday and retest the 19310 soon.” If you watched the opening minutes, you would not have guessed the 283+ intraday fall possibilities. We had a flat open instead of a gap-down even after a weak handout from...
BankNifty Analysis The greatest surprise of today came from BankNifty. A perfect flat closing today. I was hoping for a 400+ pts fall today considering how the global indices ended the trade yesterday, also how the US banks were tanking. The resilience Indian banks showed today deserves special mention. If you look at the price action today, we went green by...
Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: ”Since we are between 19446 and 19776, Nifty is still range bound — but BankNifty has fallen below the support and is looking weak. For tomorrow I wish to change my stance to bearish with the first target of 19511 and 2nd target of 19446. If we are climbing up, would not prefer to go long until 19776 is not taken out.” Nifty...
BankNifty Analysis The main villain who spoiled the plans for the bears is BankNifty. We had an opening candle swing of 333pts on the downside, but the price action was not looking that bearish for some or other reason. Ideally, we are below the support level of 44068 and any down-swing should have created an avalanche of shorts. Instead, we started climbing back...
Nifty Weekly Analysis Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has only fallen 172pts ~ 0.87%. Meanwhile, BankNifty fell 1.42% in its weekly expiry (we discussed it in yesterday’s newsletter). Nifty is still range bound whereas BankNifty has dropped below the support. Usually BankNifty leads the reversals, so we can increase our expectation of a fall in Nifty...
BankNifty Expiry Analysis Between the last expiry and today, BankNifty lost 630pts and almost 82% of that came today. Interestingly the stable support level of 44068 is now breached. Remember we went below this level on 31-Aug, 04-Oct and 09-Oct and we managed to climb back every time. Will it be different this time? BankNifty Today Analysis The leader during...
Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr TF, we have formed an island just above the 19776 levels. Today’s swing high has taken out the highs of 12th October. I wish to continue with my bullish stance as long as the support of 19776 is respected. Ideally, the next target should be 19907 and then 19998 if we are going up. Not sure why, but our markets are...
BankNifty Analysis BankNifty also had a similar chart pattern as of Nifty50. A gap-up open of 345pts ~ 0.78% and then a steady period till 13.20. Fell 208pts ~ 0.47% in 50mts and then recovered for close. HDFCBK did quite well even after the declaration of the results. The gap-up on hdfcbank was the main reason both Nifty and BankNifty had an unusual start. In...
Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr chart, I wish to maintain the neutral stance until we break out or break down. Since we are near the resistance level, the probability of breaking out could be higher. That does not mean we jump the gun and take the trade early — patience is gold” Nifty got a mega boost by the gap-up open of almost 118pts ~ 0.6%....
BankNifty Analysis BankNifty’s trade today looked quite different from Nifty50. The opening candle was a stronger red and we retested the 44068 support. Since we did not break it - my short call did not trigger. The rejection took BN higher by 312pts ~ 0.71% and we went into the green territory for a brief period. And even after all these - the options data was...
Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr pattern, the first thing I would like to do is change my stance from bullish to neutral. We have broken the 19776 support today and well above the 19446 zone. For Monday I wish to go with the neutral trades only and go short if we fall below 19614 in the forenoon session.” We started the day with a strong red...
BankNifty Analysis BankNifty was crazier than Nifty today, but because the options premium were not juicy enough, I refrained from taking positions (glad that I did). Open we fell 349pts and never really recovered from it. Till 13.30 BankNifty was showing more intent to fall than Nifty. Then came a quick surge of 248pts ~ 0.56% in 30mts. We closed the gap with...
Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: ”For tomorrow I wish to continue my bullish stance if 19776 support is respected. If that breaks in the morning session, I would like to change my stance to neutral. If 19671 level breaks in the forenoon session — I would definitely go short as we may fall below the double-top formation.” Yes, you guessed it right by reading...