26th Oct ’23 - BankNifty retests the levels seen on 11 Nov 2022
BankNifty Weekly Expiry Analysis
BankNifty had 1 extra in this week as the last expiry was on Wednesday. But the extra day was cut short as we had a scheduled holiday (Dussehra) in between. BankNifty did not fall as much as Nifty, it fell only 3.64% ~ 1597pts compared to 3.9% on Nifty. The premiums on the option strikes were not good enough except today. But I am quite sure BankNifty has already done its part by leading this trend reversal well ahead.
BankNifty Today Analysis
There were 2 interesting patterns in the chart today. Firstly we did not open as badly as Nifty, we were only 0.31% ~ 131pts gap-down. Secondly, the percentage fall on BankNifty was well below Nifty50 for most of the duration today.
After the gap-down open we fell another 599pts ~ 1.40% before gaining support and then retracing 262pts ~ 0.62%. Only between 11.10 to 11.45 the percent fall was much greater than Nifty50. What that means is BankNifty was showing reluctance to fall and even when it did - it managed to crawl back up. I am not suggesting a bottom is in place - but the bears are not as strong on BN as they are on N50.
A look at the daily chart will help you solve that confusion. The next marked support in my chart is 41624 which is 656pts below today’s closing. We might need a strong red candle to get there - this may help push the momentum for the bears. According to me the cuts in BankNifty has to exceed the cuts in Nifty more than the weightage it exerts - only then a strong downward trend will materialize.
If you look at the levels today, we have retouched the zones of 17 Apr 2023, 25 Jan 2023, 22 Dec 2022, 11 Nov 2022. When 42280 was first hit on 11/11/2022 - it was a new all-time high that day. I would like to maintain my bearish stance and expect BN to trade between 42576 and 41624 for tomorrow.
BankNifty had 1 extra in this week as the last expiry was on Wednesday. But the extra day was cut short as we had a scheduled holiday (Dussehra) in between. BankNifty did not fall as much as Nifty, it fell only 3.64% ~ 1597pts compared to 3.9% on Nifty. The premiums on the option strikes were not good enough except today. But I am quite sure BankNifty has already done its part by leading this trend reversal well ahead.
BankNifty Today Analysis
There were 2 interesting patterns in the chart today. Firstly we did not open as badly as Nifty, we were only 0.31% ~ 131pts gap-down. Secondly, the percentage fall on BankNifty was well below Nifty50 for most of the duration today.
After the gap-down open we fell another 599pts ~ 1.40% before gaining support and then retracing 262pts ~ 0.62%. Only between 11.10 to 11.45 the percent fall was much greater than Nifty50. What that means is BankNifty was showing reluctance to fall and even when it did - it managed to crawl back up. I am not suggesting a bottom is in place - but the bears are not as strong on BN as they are on N50.
A look at the daily chart will help you solve that confusion. The next marked support in my chart is 41624 which is 656pts below today’s closing. We might need a strong red candle to get there - this may help push the momentum for the bears. According to me the cuts in BankNifty has to exceed the cuts in Nifty more than the weightage it exerts - only then a strong downward trend will materialize.
If you look at the levels today, we have retouched the zones of 17 Apr 2023, 25 Jan 2023, 22 Dec 2022, 11 Nov 2022. When 42280 was first hit on 11/11/2022 - it was a new all-time high that day. I would like to maintain my bearish stance and expect BN to trade between 42576 and 41624 for tomorrow.
