viswaram

viswaram

Weekly Analysis In this expiry week, 12th to 18th May banknifty has moved up only 0.61% ~ 263pts. We have hit an important milestone this week though, 0.10 pts shy of all time high - 44151.7 on 15th. Banknifty is immensely bullish considering how Nifty50 is behaving. A trader on 15th or 16th would have normally expected BN to surpass the ATH to hit new records....

viswaram

Once again banknifty has outperformed Nifty50, the intraday recovery from 14.30 to close facilitated by the bulls of the banks. The price action formed today is interesting, but it is not compelling for a sentiment change to bearish as the support of 43253 is still untouched. If you look at the chart pattern today, it was a decent continuation of the trend from...

viswaram

There was a fall of 306pts ~ 0.7% between 14.40 to 15.20, even then banknifty does not appear as negative as Nifty50 after today's session.  The options traded on banknifty CE side was really commendable, but nothing like Nifty50 CE strikes. In the same comparison period N50 only fell 0.61% but the preceding price action is what makes it more bearish than...

viswaram

We are near all time high on NSE:BANKNIFTY - 44151.7 is today's high. The previous high was 44151.8 on 14 Dec 2022. The lowest point was 38613.15 ~ -12.45% on 16 Mar 2023. Numbers are magically adding up, 3 months from High to Low and then exactly 2 months to reclaim the top spot. From the chart you can notice that once we broke the bearish trend line, the...

viswaram

Another surprise today with 300pts ~ 0.69% move from 13.30 to 14.40, came at a time when no one really expected. Karnataka election results tomorrow and most traders would have anticipated we close the day subdued. The lower than expected CPI data of 4.7% would have leaked with few big-boys and they would have ended up loading the banks because from how I see it ...

viswaram

Weekly Expiry Analysis From the 4th of May till 11th, NSE:BANKNIFTY has fallen 0.3% ~ 131pts. Headline does not really indicate what went behind. We fell 1028pts in 1 single day i.e. 5th and then scaled back 870pts in the remaining 4 days. How can I not credit the bulls? You might be bored with me praising the bulls everytime - sadly that is the reality. The...

viswaram

Few things went as planned (till 10AM) and after that I was like the deer stuck in the headlights. No way I could believe the rally of 560pts ~ 1.31% from 10.05 to 15.20. I was having the short-sell bias ever since the bad news broke about MSCI on HDFC- NSE:HDFCBANK . So I was kind of happy we had the fall of 553pts in 45mts. I started drawing leg1 of the down...

viswaram

The real move came a little late today, from 12.45 to close wherein NSE:BANKNIFTY gave up 403pts ~ 0.93%. I was expecting the fall to come in the morning session - but the finnifty expiry trades would have limited this damage to a great extent. For some reason Axis Bank and IndusInd bank was quite strong today counter balancing the fall in SBI. Remember the...

viswaram

I am still keeping my hopes pinned on the Fibonacci levels marked as in the chart below. 43739 recent swing high, 42581 last session swing low and 43296 the 61.8% retracement level. It really looked like a short-selling setup as the bull momentum faded out after 11.15 - we went up 1.46% ~ 622pts today but it really felt like the thrust to go up further was...

viswaram

Finally some volatility to keep the bears alive. This entire week the technical analysis was saying keep buying. See how a fundamental change can alter the sentiment. "MSCI tweaks spook HDFC twins, merged entity may see $150-200 million outflows" The MSCI news hit just before the start of the day and NSE:HDFCBANK and HDFC were down 5% in pre-open. The...

viswaram

Weekly Analysis NSE:BANKNIFTY has gone up by 1.58% ~ 678pts from last Thursday to today. It has taken out 2 crucial resistance points in the process and nearing the ATH now. Really impressive performance - the banks in India are standing out with their outperformance. Global financial institutions are melting down and many US banks are trading less than 50 to...

viswaram

Just look at the 5mts chart of NSE:BANKNIFTY today - what do you see? I see the strength of the bulls. Even though the opening was gap-down and below the support line 43253, banknifty managed to scale back by 10.45. The first attempt was rejected - rightly so because NSE:NIFTY was looking weak and the market participants would have anticipated more selling...

viswaram

Signs of tiredness visible in the price action today. To start with, never expected that our indices will close in green today, even though the momentum is slowing, it is pushing up the bulls inch by inch. Nifty50 was having more positive price action vs banknifty today - that may be because there are 2 more resistance zones to go for Nifty50 to reclaim the ATH...

viswaram

I almost believed in everything that happened today, but not after 15.00. The spike seen on the 15.00 5mts candle reminded me of some cryptos that trade out there. Even NSE:NIFTY had that unusual surge. I was monitoring all 8 nifty50 stocks - and could not believe a bit of it. It may been due to the month end rebalancing but it took me a while to get my grip on...

viswaram

Monthly Analysis In this monthly series NSE:BANKNIFTY has moved up 2958pts ~ 7.40%. By any standards that is really superb. It has taken out 7 crucial resistances in the process and is now exactly at the 8th resistance point. This outperformance is cementing India's growth story to the global financial markets. Everywhere else the news of bank collapse, credit...

viswaram

I am sure most of the traders would be surprised with the kind of bullish price action we saw after 10am. Since SP:SPX closed -1.58%, NDQ -1.89% yesterday - most of them including me expected NSE:NIFTY and NSE:BANKNIFTY to close in deep red today.  The gap down opening at 42559 was perfectly at the support level and from there we wont only 163pts down...

viswaram

For traders who are playing NSE:BANKNIFTY expiries on Thursdays can play the same trades on FinNifty on Tuesdays. The margin requirements are lower and now since the option premiums are staying low - the ROI in finnifty is better than banknifty. Today was a flat day, open was at 42731 and then it was struggling to keep the momentum up. We had a gradual rise...

viswaram

By 09.15 around 90% of traders would have guessed how NSE:BANKNIFTY is going to trade today. Thats because NSE:ICICIBANK had an excellent quarterly results to boast for. The predictability of banknifty is, one leading bank is enough to pull up the sentiment of others. Same on the downside as well. Opening was gap up at 42469, and it took a while before it...