PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 29 MAY 2023
There is some good news and some bad news. Good news first - banknifty just hit an all time high of 44483.35. The bad news is that from a technical standpoint - there is no easy trades we can take from here.
The gap up was 0.64% ~ 283pts that itself was enough to break the ATH. From there there was no meaningful price action. Banknifty just maintained that range. The consolidation also makes sense because we now have a change in sentiment.
From a valuation perspective - who would buy banknifty now? The FOMO people?? Investors who have a long term view i.e 3 to 5 years might feel - yeah this is the opportunity to enter the Indian stock markets. I feel these are the only kind of people who will be lured to buy!
After the 1st hour, I stopped trading. The problem was, I could not find a good trade that made sense. On the other hand Nifty50 options data was showing more scope for upside movement. Nifty also had a gap up today - confirming the resistance break from previous day 13.30
The next resistance for Nifty is 18762 and for banknifty - none. Yes let that sink in.
Since tomorrow is Finnifty expiry, I am expecting some volatility to push up the options premium.
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15mts shows the breakaway gap quite clearly. The range breakout also visible. But if you ask me is it a bullish pattern - I really do not know. Let us see how it trades tomorrow to make some assumptions.
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1hr chart is bullish, thats because we just negated a triple top like formation + gap up. Will banknifty catch fever due to the euphoria of hitting ATH - we will see in this week.
