10/10/24 - $alar - worth a small punt at $9.5/shr
Updated
10/10/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
ALAR
worth a small punt at 99.5/SHR
- one of these names where the lemmings all jumped with their favorite influencer said "jump"
- was it worth 10x sales? no. i watched this thing climb and climb and climb. i also so it get slammed, lower and lower and lower.
- is this a good product? i'm sure it's fine - the growth looks decent and they're getting opex flex.
- CEO doesn't seem to be a nut (listened to 30' of him)
- good net cash, co generates cash, it's still growing, cyber is the right "zip code", good gross margins
- valuation of 1.5x sales (enterprise value so ex cash d00ds) seems pretty cheap
- looks like downside is probably limited (though i say this half jokingly given the chart--i still think u could see 25-30% lower) but the upside is likely much more than 25-30% in the 1-2Y context. am i wed to this? no. but seems like the chart has found some bottoming action and the plebs have moved on to their space lasers and salad bots... so V comes in and starts to turn over the rocks.
- 50 bps starter. small enough to care, not small enough to care, but willing to do more work and grow it and report back.
anyone have a better sense than my armchair observation and meme position?
V
ALARworth a small punt at 99.5/SHR
- one of these names where the lemmings all jumped with their favorite influencer said "jump"
- was it worth 10x sales? no. i watched this thing climb and climb and climb. i also so it get slammed, lower and lower and lower.
- is this a good product? i'm sure it's fine - the growth looks decent and they're getting opex flex.
- CEO doesn't seem to be a nut (listened to 30' of him)
- good net cash, co generates cash, it's still growing, cyber is the right "zip code", good gross margins
- valuation of 1.5x sales (enterprise value so ex cash d00ds) seems pretty cheap
- looks like downside is probably limited (though i say this half jokingly given the chart--i still think u could see 25-30% lower) but the upside is likely much more than 25-30% in the 1-2Y context. am i wed to this? no. but seems like the chart has found some bottoming action and the plebs have moved on to their space lasers and salad bots... so V comes in and starts to turn over the rocks.
- 50 bps starter. small enough to care, not small enough to care, but willing to do more work and grow it and report back.
anyone have a better sense than my armchair observation and meme position?
V
Trade closed: target reached
30% in a few days to $12.5...
taking some off the table. sheesh. don't get greedy. this mkt is rezarded rn.
enjoy
V
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