7/26/24 - $asts - LOL short > $18

Jul 26

7/26/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: ASTS

This is one of those situations guys where you take profits if you're long. Pat yourself on the back. Have a beer. And move on.

This valuation doesn't even merit me walking thru the math.

PS - I short using some P's for next week $17 expires. Again, it's a hedge to the rest of my long exposure. Maybe it continues to rip IDK. But I sense the last two days is simply 0dte gamma squeezy and when the air comes out we probbaly go toward the $14 level in a hurry.

If you'd like I'm happy to justify a 8-10$ valuation. This isn't one of those NNE/ SMR situations where the stock is not really worth anything (sorry again guys for making that point if you're long - just a word of caution). But that said, this thing (ASTS) is defn not worth anything close to $19 as I'm writing this. No way Jose lol.

V

Jul 30

Note

closing this one out. added pretty aggressively on the 18P's this AM... and was able to manage a good 30% on the whole balance. i think there's more to go here, but given what's happening in semi's land and how much i'm deploying here... i'm taking the small token win (to prove a point is why i did this post originally)... and keeping focused on my size. i'd guess there's more to go here, but a W is a W.

enjoy

V

Jul 31

Note

lol i'm tempted to reopen this short, but it would be another vanity play
donkey gonna donk, +10% really guys after getting a taste of what's coming?
fam gotta eat!

Jul 31

Note

Grabbed some 19P's (this week 8/2, a bit degen for my taste) for 25c.
Gl to the holders. May the biggest balls win.

V

Aug 2

Trade closed manually

so yeah...
sorry not sorry.
closed.

V

there's more to go but this was just a vanity move to prove a pt. i'm focused on some mega positions ATM. roll some games on a better degen play +SOXL weeklies lol. kidding but sorta not really. go read my portfolio update post.

anyway, we r all friends. stay solvent. take some gains off the table.

have a good weekend.

Aug 7

Note

comin' back like jordan to go 3 for 3.

w/ the stock now > $21... i'm short... again.

"...from dowwnn town... VROCKSTAR pulls up"

let's see. vanity move.

V

Aug 7

Note

closed +30%.
idk why i'm so attracted to this one emotionally. probably not a good thing.
anyway again sorry not sorry.
but for those of you who own this... can you pls explain? this thing is overvalued 2:1 at this px. it's being held up by gamma and gamma alone. i bet you don't even own shares (if you're reading this!)
just be careful k?

V

Aug 8

Note

This is becoming weird. I've opened this can of worms again at $22.

So i just went mega f'n short your stock. If you're holding this - now we're facing off. Blackbeard style sht. Good luck to longs. RI fn' P

V

Aug 9

Note

closing it at $20.6 (P's) with some nice gains.
just not worth my time and sitting alone patting myself on the back.
4 for 4. i'll buy a nice beer. and watch you guys implode.
just don't say i didn't warn you. also i'm rooting for all of us.
pls be careful with this one. it could go to $30. but it's worth $10 at most.

V

Aug 15

Note

woke up to this meme up 20%.

guess it's another day ending in -y... i'm short again at >$25 now lol! looking to go 5 for 5

at this point i'm going to start sizing it up should we go higher. anyone care to step up in the world of math and bridge the gap for this non believer. shhh charlie. shun the non believer. anyone get the reference ;)

V

Oct 4

Trade closed manually

closing this thing and reconsidering.
friend who consider to be smart investor in the space genuinely thinks this thing could be worth a lot more - and i trust his opinion.
really hard for me to value this, but i no longer am convinced it's a meme.
will i buy it? idk... maybe a tiny position at some pt - looks like a decent entry here low 20s all else equal if the upside/ downside case is like 2-3x to 1x downside.
V