The Japanese Housewives (& Why Bitcoin rallied so much in 2017)
Updated
For the past 4 or 5 centuries afaik Japanese housewives have been running the household, taking care of kids making food and also managing the money. By the 2000s, these housewives were in charge of nearly $17 trillion.
After WW2 until the late 90's, the Japanese families were saving up, and it worked well.
But this happened in the 80s to 90s:
Europe rates are super bad now too, next in line are the USA. it's like after every bubble and recession there is a big deflation with horrendous rates.
USA probably should have experienced this after Japan and before or at the same time as europe, but they cheated with the FED etc. Only postponed the innevitable. Anyway...
In the first decade of the new millenia, facing no returns from keeping their family money in the bank, japan housewives, historically risk averse, changed from a very safe saving culture to a more aggressive active investing one (doesn't mean they were going super crazy either).
One thing alot of them did was sell their worthless 0% returns yen, and buy Australian Dollars that had really good interest rates (and their stock market is pretty much invincible even if WW3 pops out they'll be fine).
This is called a carry trade. What ended happening was the large exit of yen from the country caused the currency to fall to a 20 year low. We also call this a crowded trade.
And what happened next well, small exit, and every lady out there is running for the exit.
Easy profit for those that know what is going on BUT this is really long term, what I would do - assuming I know what is going on - is this:
If you were able to build a story like this, you would have some straight wins for 6 months, easy. (This is "3- Build a bias" in my previous idea "What makes a good trader? How to trade? [Beginner & Advanced]").
Now I did not want to make this about Bitcoin, but the fact is that in April 2017, Japan passed a law making Bitcoin a legal form of currency!
Some of these housewives (probably those that won in 2000-2008 lol) started looking at it. And they're managing easilly 20 trillion $ at that point. They are careful and responsible so I don't think they all went all in lmao.
Deutsche Bank published a report at the craziest point of the bubble, showing that nearly HALF of the entire world Bitcoin trades in October 2017 were in Yen, so basically from these lovely ladies again. They're bigger than any pension fund. One massive herd that have the same constraints (mainly the japan central bank and regulations).
On Bitflyer apparently the volume is only 12 million dollars (for btc/yen), removing all the wash trading fake volume and also bitmex we have I think 300 million or something? (Most of it is CME+Coinbase+Kraken+Bitstamp+Binance+Bitfinex just add these 6 - not sure if we can trust Binance and finex)
Even with just Coinbase Kraken Bitstamp CME then the yen volume is still far from being half.
Looks like the japanese left Bitcoin to rot (just like they left the aud?) and could not care less now.
They are now less afraid to take risks and it looks like they got better at it. Rekting every dumb FOMO person on the planet...
Actually I have no idea.
You better bet that Deutsch Bank, that published their report about Bitcoin in December 2017, knew about it way earlier. They just release it after they were long Bitcoin for a while and looking to dump on foolish sheep.
Big pension funds guys like this, they have to disclose their positions right? But Japanese households, the biggest easiest to profit from whale, do not.
I am sure we can find out more.
Let me know in the comments if you know more about this I'd appreciate it :p
After WW2 until the late 90's, the Japanese families were saving up, and it worked well.
But this happened in the 80s to 90s:
Europe rates are super bad now too, next in line are the USA. it's like after every bubble and recession there is a big deflation with horrendous rates.
USA probably should have experienced this after Japan and before or at the same time as europe, but they cheated with the FED etc. Only postponed the innevitable. Anyway...
In the first decade of the new millenia, facing no returns from keeping their family money in the bank, japan housewives, historically risk averse, changed from a very safe saving culture to a more aggressive active investing one (doesn't mean they were going super crazy either).
One thing alot of them did was sell their worthless 0% returns yen, and buy Australian Dollars that had really good interest rates (and their stock market is pretty much invincible even if WW3 pops out they'll be fine).
This is called a carry trade. What ended happening was the large exit of yen from the country caused the currency to fall to a 20 year low. We also call this a crowded trade.
And what happened next well, small exit, and every lady out there is running for the exit.
Easy profit for those that know what is going on BUT this is really long term, what I would do - assuming I know what is going on - is this:
If you were able to build a story like this, you would have some straight wins for 6 months, easy. (This is "3- Build a bias" in my previous idea "What makes a good trader? How to trade? [Beginner & Advanced]").
Now I did not want to make this about Bitcoin, but the fact is that in April 2017, Japan passed a law making Bitcoin a legal form of currency!
Some of these housewives (probably those that won in 2000-2008 lol) started looking at it. And they're managing easilly 20 trillion $ at that point. They are careful and responsible so I don't think they all went all in lmao.
Deutsche Bank published a report at the craziest point of the bubble, showing that nearly HALF of the entire world Bitcoin trades in October 2017 were in Yen, so basically from these lovely ladies again. They're bigger than any pension fund. One massive herd that have the same constraints (mainly the japan central bank and regulations).
On Bitflyer apparently the volume is only 12 million dollars (for btc/yen), removing all the wash trading fake volume and also bitmex we have I think 300 million or something? (Most of it is CME+Coinbase+Kraken+Bitstamp+Binance+Bitfinex just add these 6 - not sure if we can trust Binance and finex)
Even with just Coinbase Kraken Bitstamp CME then the yen volume is still far from being half.
Looks like the japanese left Bitcoin to rot (just like they left the aud?) and could not care less now.
They are now less afraid to take risks and it looks like they got better at it. Rekting every dumb FOMO person on the planet...
Actually I have no idea.
You better bet that Deutsch Bank, that published their report about Bitcoin in December 2017, knew about it way earlier. They just release it after they were long Bitcoin for a while and looking to dump on foolish sheep.
Big pension funds guys like this, they have to disclose their positions right? But Japanese households, the biggest easiest to profit from whale, do not.
I am sure we can find out more.
Let me know in the comments if you know more about this I'd appreciate it :p
Note
This is a really cool example because it has very clear phases.For optimal results, always have in mind the macro situation and know the weekly chart.
I follow 9 currencies 2-4 commodities and 4 indices (they all do the same thing thought) the commodities and indices are easy because they are very "visual" or "natural". I kinda gave up on Bitcoin because it's complicated for me to split my money between brokers and have 1 account just for crypto with all the scamming going around and very few opportunities.
The hard part are the currencies. The USD pair, plus I am also looking at about 15 crosses. And I added USDSEK USDNOK EURSEK.
I am testing it thought, if I get enough opportunities I'll stick to only around 10 FX pairs all the USD pairs and this is manageable.
But a total of 30 charts to be familiar with, this is quite alot.
When I get a signal I have to go re-check the story and do specific research etc...
Usually it's best to not have too much imo.
Still, with 25 pairs, I actually only know about 10 currencies.
It's only about knowing the details of which one is strongest relative to others etc.
So it's not like I have 2.5 times the work to do, rather maybe 1.5 times only.
And 4 indices it's *2 not *4.
So it's like I would be following 20 things in total. With that much I am not going to know everything. 30 charts with alot of redundant info.
But spend enough time you can know the big picture about 20 things.
The weekly chart does not change radically every week ;)
I think it's manageable if you are interested and have a decent memory and everything.
I'll update this, or the other idea about trading, as I keep going on anyway.
If I notice I am missing things and making mistakes I will correct this (I did miss in particular with Bitcoin quite a few :p).
Being organised having a routine helps alot.
Note
Japanese housewives cashing out?T4P
Note
Yep, looks like it.USD volume parabolic. JPY volume nope.
The other big exchange is liquid. Volume is down.
Whales dumping, will keep dumping till the top wherever that is, 9k or 20-25k maybe.
Thanks for playing.
Note
Japan casino's will open mid 2020. Keep an eye on the exact day.You do not want to be invested in crypto when that happens.
Will short *100. Thanks for playing.
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