0.69 might welcome a retest
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
May’s extension and June’s current rally has seen price test the mettle of monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664. Technically, the area benefits from additional resistance by way of a long-term trendline formation (1.0582).
Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs have been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Buyers and sellers on the daily timeframe squared off under two trendline resistances (prior supports – 0.6744/0.6671), along with supply at 0.7059/0.7031, last week, eventually shipping price through support from 0.6931, down 1.45% on the week.
Confirmed by the RSI exiting overbought territory, the break of 0.6931 fuels the likelihood of a drop to another support pencilled in at 0.6755 this week.
It may also interest traders to note the 200-day simple moving average at 0.6663 is in the process of flattening, following months of drifting lower.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Thursday put forward losses of more than 2.00%, extending south of multi-month peaks at 0.7064 and eventually booking into demand at 0.6773/0.6814, accompanied alongside trendline support (0.6402) and a 38.2% Fib ret level at 0.6808.
Buyers, as you can see, have a presence off current demand, though has so far found thin air ahead of supply at 0.6962/0.6921. Owing to the higher-timeframe landscape, a dip to demand at 0.6695/0.6664 (prior supply) could shape this week.
H1 timeframe:
0.68, a psychological support housed within demand at 0.6788/0.6812, made an entrance early Friday and raised AUD/USD to 0.69 heading into London, which contained upside. The session concluded above 0.6850, following another retest from the aforesaid demand.
Another spirited rebound from 0.69 this week throws the H1 candles into a possible ranging environment.
Clearing 0.69, nonetheless, may have buyers take aim at the 100-period simple moving average; a decline through current demand, nonetheless, draws out another demand at 0.6719/0.6741.
Structures of Interest:
Long term:
Monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664 and trendline resistance, coupled with daily price journeying through support at 0.6931, deserves notice as an indication of potential selling this week.
Daily support at 0.6755 is set as the next target to the downside on the higher timeframes.
Short term:
Owing to the higher timeframe’s position, dipping through H4 demand at 0.6773/0.6814, an area that’s already depicting a fragile tone, could be seen today/tomorrow. Before pressing lower, though, 0.69 on the H1 timeframe might welcome a retest, serving as a possible platform for sellers.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
May’s extension and June’s current rally has seen price test the mettle of monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664. Technically, the area benefits from additional resistance by way of a long-term trendline formation (1.0582).
Regarding the market’s primary trend, a series of lower lows and lower highs have been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Buyers and sellers on the daily timeframe squared off under two trendline resistances (prior supports – 0.6744/0.6671), along with supply at 0.7059/0.7031, last week, eventually shipping price through support from 0.6931, down 1.45% on the week.
Confirmed by the RSI exiting overbought territory, the break of 0.6931 fuels the likelihood of a drop to another support pencilled in at 0.6755 this week.
It may also interest traders to note the 200-day simple moving average at 0.6663 is in the process of flattening, following months of drifting lower.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis –
Thursday put forward losses of more than 2.00%, extending south of multi-month peaks at 0.7064 and eventually booking into demand at 0.6773/0.6814, accompanied alongside trendline support (0.6402) and a 38.2% Fib ret level at 0.6808.
Buyers, as you can see, have a presence off current demand, though has so far found thin air ahead of supply at 0.6962/0.6921. Owing to the higher-timeframe landscape, a dip to demand at 0.6695/0.6664 (prior supply) could shape this week.
H1 timeframe:
0.68, a psychological support housed within demand at 0.6788/0.6812, made an entrance early Friday and raised AUD/USD to 0.69 heading into London, which contained upside. The session concluded above 0.6850, following another retest from the aforesaid demand.
Another spirited rebound from 0.69 this week throws the H1 candles into a possible ranging environment.
Clearing 0.69, nonetheless, may have buyers take aim at the 100-period simple moving average; a decline through current demand, nonetheless, draws out another demand at 0.6719/0.6741.
Structures of Interest:
Long term:
Monthly supply at 0.7029/0.6664 and trendline resistance, coupled with daily price journeying through support at 0.6931, deserves notice as an indication of potential selling this week.
Daily support at 0.6755 is set as the next target to the downside on the higher timeframes.
Short term:
Owing to the higher timeframe’s position, dipping through H4 demand at 0.6773/0.6814, an area that’s already depicting a fragile tone, could be seen today/tomorrow. Before pressing lower, though, 0.69 on the H1 timeframe might welcome a retest, serving as a possible platform for sellers.
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