AUDUSD. Medium and short term analysis
Hello traders and investors!
The price reached the target of the forecast from April.
Some medium-term forecasts take a long time to come to fruition. It creates the impression that medium-term forecasts always come true. You can use the following criterion to consider a forecast fulfilled: ensure that the price does not break the last local extreme before reaching the target. If this condition is met, the forecast can be considered successfully realized. In the April forecast, the last local extreme is point 5 of the sideways range (0.62701).
Weekly Timeframe Analysis
Let me remind you that on the weekly timeframe (TF), a sideways range has been forming since January 2023 (point 4). The lower boundary is 0.61699, and the upper boundary is 0.71577. Formally, the buyer has reached the target of the 5-6 vector (0.69205), and there are no signs of reversal yet. The last two weekly candles show increased volume, with small buying wicks. However, the price is currently in the seller's contextual area (the upper range of the weekly TF sideways movement), but the seller is not utilizing this volume yet.
Daily Timeframe Analysis
On the daily TF, a sideways range has been forming since August 24 (point 4). The lower boundary is 0.63478, and the upper boundary is 0.67985.
The buyer's 4-5 vector has broken through the upper boundary of the range. For three days, the price has been unable to break through the level marking the start of the last seller's sub-impulse on the weekly TF (0.68996). Below, the buyer is defending the breakout of the last sub-impulse seller level on the daily TF (0.68239). For the last two days, the buyer has applied increased volume with no result. On the other hand, the price is in the seller’s contextual area (the upper range of the weekly TF sideways movement), so the seller should be evaluated first—and so far, the seller is absent.
Highlight:
• There are no signs of the seller on either the weekly or daily TFs to justify looking for mid-term sales. A sign of the seller could be a return of the price to the daily TF sideways range and the seller defending that return.
• There is no context for mid-term buys, as the price is in the upper part of the weekly TF range (a seller's contextual area).
2H Timeframe Analysis
For short-term buys or sells, you can use, for example, the 2-hour TF. On this TF, there is a sideways range, with the seller’s 7-8 vector being active and the potential target at 0.68179.
The seller has returned the price to the range (below 0.69081), forming a seller’s zone above (marked by a red rectangle on the chart). Sales can be considered. When selling, monitor the price's movement around 0.6868 and 0.68625.
Purchases can be considered from the lower boundary of the range (0.68144) if the buyer defends it.
Good luck with your trading and investments!
The price reached the target of the forecast from April.
Some medium-term forecasts take a long time to come to fruition. It creates the impression that medium-term forecasts always come true. You can use the following criterion to consider a forecast fulfilled: ensure that the price does not break the last local extreme before reaching the target. If this condition is met, the forecast can be considered successfully realized. In the April forecast, the last local extreme is point 5 of the sideways range (0.62701).
Weekly Timeframe Analysis
Let me remind you that on the weekly timeframe (TF), a sideways range has been forming since January 2023 (point 4). The lower boundary is 0.61699, and the upper boundary is 0.71577. Formally, the buyer has reached the target of the 5-6 vector (0.69205), and there are no signs of reversal yet. The last two weekly candles show increased volume, with small buying wicks. However, the price is currently in the seller's contextual area (the upper range of the weekly TF sideways movement), but the seller is not utilizing this volume yet.
Daily Timeframe Analysis
On the daily TF, a sideways range has been forming since August 24 (point 4). The lower boundary is 0.63478, and the upper boundary is 0.67985.
The buyer's 4-5 vector has broken through the upper boundary of the range. For three days, the price has been unable to break through the level marking the start of the last seller's sub-impulse on the weekly TF (0.68996). Below, the buyer is defending the breakout of the last sub-impulse seller level on the daily TF (0.68239). For the last two days, the buyer has applied increased volume with no result. On the other hand, the price is in the seller’s contextual area (the upper range of the weekly TF sideways movement), so the seller should be evaluated first—and so far, the seller is absent.
Highlight:
• There are no signs of the seller on either the weekly or daily TFs to justify looking for mid-term sales. A sign of the seller could be a return of the price to the daily TF sideways range and the seller defending that return.
• There is no context for mid-term buys, as the price is in the upper part of the weekly TF range (a seller's contextual area).
2H Timeframe Analysis
For short-term buys or sells, you can use, for example, the 2-hour TF. On this TF, there is a sideways range, with the seller’s 7-8 vector being active and the potential target at 0.68179.
The seller has returned the price to the range (below 0.69081), forming a seller’s zone above (marked by a red rectangle on the chart). Sales can be considered. When selling, monitor the price's movement around 0.6868 and 0.68625.
Purchases can be considered from the lower boundary of the range (0.68144) if the buyer defends it.
Good luck with your trading and investments!
Note
I recommended monitoring the 0.68625 level if you hold short positions. From this level, the buyer resumed movement up to the upper boundary of the range at 0.69078, where the seller resumed and formed a seller's zone (highlighted by a red rectangle on the chart). Potential targets for the seller's vector 7-8 are 0.68176 and 0.68141.
It makes sense to look for buying opportunities at the lower boundary of the range (0.68144), provided that the buyer defends it.
Did you notice that the price values on the chart have slightly changed? By 3 points, to be precise. For example, the upper boundary of the range on the 2-hour time frame used to be 0.69081, and now it's 0.69078. Similarly, the possible buyer resumption level was 0.68625, and now it's 0.68622. It's interesting—is TV showing the correct data now, or was the previous data more accurate, and it's incorrect now?
Note
On the 2-hour timeframe, the seller successfully reached the target (0.68141) and broke through the lower boundary of the range. The buyer has yet to appear.
"There are no signs of the seller on either the weekly or daily TFs to justify looking for mid-term sales. A sign of the seller could be a return of the price to the daily TF sideways range and the seller defending that return." On Friday, the seller brought the price back into the range on the daily time frame (below 0.67985). Now, we just need to wait for the defense of this return to the range.
A seller's zone has formed above (highlighted by a red rectangle on the chart), with the lower boundary of the zone at 0.68141. Below, there is a buyer's zone (green rectangle on the chart), with the upper boundary at 0.67672.
In the range, the active seller's vector is 5-6, with a potential target of 0.65604. I'll observe whether the buyer resumes from the buyer's zone.
On the weekly chart, a seller's zone has also formed, as the previous buyer's candle with increased volume was pushed down by the seller.
At the moment, the priority is to look for short positions as a way to realize the seller's vector in the range on the daily time frame.
Good luck with your trading!
t.me/user_friendly_trading
t.me/user_friendly_trading
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