AVAX — Next Stop $40?

2 days ago

AVAX has been one of the stronger high-cap performers recently, but the yearly open at $36 has proven to be a tough ceiling. Price has rejected this level three times already, each time offering short opportunities. This level also aligns with the 15B market cap, making it a key resistance zone.

Now, AVAX is retracing into a prime area for long setups, retracing part of the recent 5-wave impulse.

🟢 Long Entry Zone

• 0.618 Fib retracement: $32 → first bounce zone
  
• 0.786 Fib retracement: $30.85 → deeper entry opportunity
  
• 0.886 Fib retracement: $30 → highest confluence long entry
  
• Invalidation: Below $29.41 (origin of the impulse)
  

Confluence at $30

The $30 level is the strongest support cluster, backed by multiple technical factors:

• POC of this trading range
  
• 0.886 Fib retracement of the impulse
  
• 21 EMA/SMA (daily timeframe)
  
• Anchored VWAP support
  
• $30 psychological round number
  
• 0.618 Fib speed fan support
  

This makes laddering entries from $32 down to $30 the most optimal approach.

Targets

• First Target: $36 yearly open → retest of major resistance (fourth attempt)
  
• Main Target: $40 resistance cluster → 0.618 Fib retracement, negative -0.618 Fib extension
  
• R:R: 1:3 up to 1:6 depending on entry
  

Educational Insight

When analysing trades, confluence is king. A single indicator may provide a signal, but when multiple tools align at the same level the probability of that zone holding increases significantly.

The $30 zone for AVAX is a great example of confluence stacking. This doesn’t guarantee success, but it gives traders a defined edge with a clear invalidation point. The same logic applies to resistance: at $40, multiple technical layers align, making it a high-probability take-profit zone.

Quick Take

AVAX is pulling back into a stacked support zone. With solid confluence at $30–$32, this zone sets up the fourth attempt at breaking the $36 yearly open resistance.

And as the saying goes in trading: the 4th touch often breaks. If it does, AVAX could quickly rally toward the $40 resistance cluster, where multiple confluences align.

Indicators used

• DriftLine — Pivot Open Zones [SiDec] → For identifying key yearly/monthly/weekly/daily opens that act as major S/R reference points
  
• Multi Timeframe 8x MA Support Resistance Zones [SiDec] → to identify support and resistance zones such as the Daily 21 EMA/SMA.
  
• LuxAlgo — Liquidity Sentiment Profile (Auto-Anchored)
  

➡️ Available for free. You can find it on my profile under “Scripts” and apply it directly to your charts for extra confluence when planning your trades.

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2 days ago

Note

AVAX Update — Max Pain Reversal Zone Hit

AVAX skipped the golden pocket and went straight into the max pain scenario, finding support and bouncing within the 0.786–0.886 Fib retracement zone.

This area often acts as a final liquidity grab and strong reversal zone, making it a max pain reversal setup.

📌 Setup is clear, invalidation below $30.

2 days ago

Trade closed manually

Very weak reaction at $30. With this key level lost, the next high-probability setup lies around $28, where an FVG and liquidity pocket align. Lets see if we get this drop =)