Balrampur Chini short-term bullish swing trade opportunity

Dec 10, 2023

Hello All,

I am presenting my analysis and approach for a short-term bullish positional trade opportunity in BALRAMCHIN. There is a good short-term bullish swing trading opportunity presenting itself in this fundamentally strong scrip.

Trade validity: Week of 11th December 2023

Entry: 388
I will watch how the stock reacts to the green trendline on the hourly timeframe by end of the session on Monday, 11th Dec'23.
So I'll wait and watch to let the dust settle by the end of the day on 11th Dec'23.
I will then look for a positional entry in the following sessions on or after Tuesday, 12th Dec'23. If the green trendline is respected, and the red trend above it is broken and the break is sustained, then the downtrend of last week could be reversing. For this, there has to be an hourly green candle that closes above 395 level. I will then wait for the price to come back down for a retest of the 388 level, just around the green trendline in the following days of the week.

Stop: 385
The stop will be 385 at the green horizontal line. This will be a hard stop as I do not want to wait for the candle to close below this.
(I usually set the entry and stops as trigger-limit orders for auto executions.)

Target: 403
The expected target is 403 at the horizontal red line.
I may exit there fully, partially, or, wait and see how the price reacts at that level for further upside with a hard trailing stop at 397. Targets beyond 403 are seen as per the thicker blue lines at 408, 416, and so on..

RRR: 5
This is a good short-term trade with a RRR of just above 5.

Let's see how this plays out.. :)

This is based on multi-timeframe support and resistance, trend, strength, volume, volatility, confluence, and a bit of fundamental analysis. If this looks good to you, please consider a follow.

Thanks!

(Disclaimer: For educational and analysis purpose only. No recommendations. I am not a SEBI registered advisor. Please make your own decisions at your own responsibility.)

Dec 11, 2023

Note

First hour candle closed above 398. Now I will wait for an entry at 388 if it retraces towards that level and sustains above it towards the end of the day.

Dec 11, 2023

Note

Revision: Based on the price action on 11th Dec'23, BALRAMCHIN has found a good support above 395.4 and as such the chances of a reversal here are boosted. But the retracement towards lower level is still pending. Based on today's price action analysis, I have revised the entry price lower to 384.8, stop-loss to 382.5 and target higher to 416. Intermediate levels on the way to the target are at 395,399,404,408. I will wait and watch it till the end of session tomorrow on 12th Dec'23 for a possible entry as expected either EOD tomorrow or the next day morning.

Dec 12, 2023

Note

Not much of an update. The price action pretty much looks to be as per the expectation. So by EOD tomorrow if the price holds above 384 level, I may make an entry at around 384.8 or in the early session the day after.

Dec 13, 2023

Note

BALRAMCHIN failed to sustain above 384 level. As such this trade idea is now invalid. I expect it to test lower levels in the coming days. I am not going to track this further.