Bank Nifty - Can RBI Rate Cut@8thFeb2017 Hold Bank Nifty

Very close to Invalidation level@20576 where wave(1) starts & taken a shape of leading diagonal. A leading diagonal starts the structure in our case it has started downside. Bracket Wave-(1) internally is made of 1-2-3-4-5 waves.

It's a violation of the rule, if wave -4 goes into wave -1 zone, but this rule is omitted for a leading diagonal which starts the structure & an ending diagonal which ends the structure- In both the diagonal structures wave-4 can overlap wave-1 zone.

Post Wave-(1) it was a more complex wave-(W) which internally has A-B-C structure (remember we traded C-wave top in Wave-(W) closer to 20200-20300 zone as per update shown below) then followed by a connecting wave-(X) which was a steep downside wave in the zone 20150-20200 zone -later it was followed by an irregular structure A-B-C in Wave-(Y)

Currently we have ended wave- C in wave-(Y) or about to end but it should do so below 20576 -which is the Invalidation level.

Rule-1 (Elliott Waves)- Wave-(2) can never retrace 100% of the wave-(1) in normal structure & if wave -1 is a leading diagonal -it can retrace very deep 90-99% of wave-(1) but surely not 100% of the wave-(1) so Invalidation level is 20576 which is the start of wave-(1)

We know -where we can go wrong
If Wave -(2) goes beyond 20576 then it retraces more than 100%, which is not allowed or structure is invalidated.

Starting it could be a wave-(3) which should be a supersonic wave downside & shall have a potential to go below 17600 lows in coming days & months.

Since the retracement was deep -fall could be even deeper at 15900-16000zone -Wave -(3) travels 261.8% of Wave-(1)- obviously it will never travel in one direction as financial instruments never travel in a straight line.


You would love to read previous ideas

How we traded end of wave-C in wave-(W) or start of wave-X with IT raids.

2000 Points in Happy Jan Series till 19700-19900 zone -expected sizeable push upside

Super 17828 Support did you use it

Trade active:

17:17 Hrs 8th Feb2017

Closing price@20245

As expected that it will go in the gap & close to 20100-20140 if holds then bounce likely BN went close to 20100 made a low 20070 & bounced sharply to 20330.

Trade active:

20:25 Hrs 9th Feb2017

Closing price@20151

Hi guys! I shall be travelling till coming Sunday, so won't be available. Before I could leave wanted to put small update.

The Fall from sharp push up yesterday@20406 post RBI status quo (no change in policy rates- kept street guessing-did best what was possible for them) likely looks we have put the top & looks a truncated one.
So, be careful as any push in the zone 20250-20275 if holds & starts falling below 20200 then there could be selling opportunity for targets 20000- below 20000 Target could be 19650-19700

I have already warned that we are close to a top so selling would have been profitable -likely we got 2-3 times selling from Top.

We still want some more confirmation is to watch in coming days if BN starts moving below 18500 that will give more confidence that the wave which started from 17600 is all done & out.

Trade Carefully & always confirm before taking financial selfies as selfies can be dangerous.

Regards,
Abhishek H. Singh, CMT

Trade active:

11:13 Hrs 14th Feb2017

Last Price@20232

As suggested in last update@9th Feb2017- Bank Nifty is still struggling in the range 20,000-20,320.
We will be placing wave completion once BN dips below 20100 & later take out 20000 mark as well, which are key & critical levels to be watched in coming sessions- if that happens then chances of truncation are more likely. We will later conclude 20406 as top in Bank Nifty once key & critical levels are taken out downside.

Whenever truncation happens -market will scare you -as we are assuming that there is a truncation upside - once confirmed -it will be scary downside move. So, let us have patience.

Trade active:

13:08 Hrs 15th Feb2017

Last Price@20161

The level 20406 is still intact- bravo--this is called market bravo - started showing some weakness signs as expected in previous update

Trade active:

14:52 Hrs 15th Feb2017

Last Price@20188

Let BankNifty do the dance above 20100 -once slips below 20100 & later 20000- floor will be cracked downside.

But never get emotional in markets or marry a stock, otherwise its painful. Upside 20406 is a key level at present which should be respected for coming sessions as well.

Trade active:

10:17 Hrs 16th Feb2017

Last Price@20101

BN broke 20100 - 1st Level - waiting eagerly to see if 20,000 also gets broken. It pushes up every time since last few days & selling on the rise has been fabulous for us.

Trade active:

13:40 Hrs 16th Feb2017

Last Price@20250

BN can push till 20320-20350 zone, which can happen from here or from 20150-20175 zone, but it should hold above 20150 for the bounce to 20320-20350 which I see as a temp bounce.
Critical level- 20406.

Trade active:

08:20 Hrs 17th Feb2017

Good Morning!

Critical Level on Top- 20406

Critical Level on downside -20000

Key Level on downside- 20088

It's a big box trading if goes above 20406 - likely Bulls are strong & if it dips below 20088 then bears will come in picture & going below 20000- they become even better. So keep trading at tops & bottoms till you get the breakouts- selling at top & buying at bottoms.

Trade active:

12:14 Hrs 17th Feb2017

Last Price@20769

If overnight short positions you have taken, then you should wait for BN to drop below day's low@20600 - going below 20600 likely it travels to 20250-20300 zone where we need to check again.

As it is bear & bull trap happening back 2 back - that is the reason you should always wait for confirmations.

Comment:

15:03 Hrs 17th Feb2017

DAX- European Index 2nd session falls sharp & trading close to 11700

Trade closed manually:

18:58 Hrs 17th Feb2017

Closing this post as count invalidates.