Based on the charts and the market's performance on Monday, September 22, the Bank Nifty has experienced a significant corrective move. The index has broken below its rising channel, suggesting a shift in short-term momentum from bullish to bearish.
Detailed Market Structure Breakdown
4-Hour Chart (Macro Trend)
Structure: The long-term trend remains bullish, as the index is still well above its early September lows. However, the last two 4-hour candles show a sharp rejection from the highs and a break below the ascending channel. This is a clear signal of weakness and suggests a potential deeper correction is in the works.
Key Levels:
Major Supply (Resistance): 55,800 - 56,000. This level has proven to be a very strong supply zone, rejecting the price on multiple occasions. It is now a critical resistance to watch.
Major Demand (Support): The most crucial support for the bulls is the 55,050 - 55,200 zone. This area, which includes a prior breakout level, is the key "line in the sand" for the current bullish trend. A break below this would signal a significant trend reversal.
1-Hour Chart (Intermediate View)
Structure: The 1H chart shows a clear MSS (Market Structure Shift) to the downside. The price has broken below the lower trendline of the rising channel and its immediate support at 55,400. This confirms the short-term bearish bias. The index is now making lower highs and lower lows.
Key Levels:
Immediate Resistance: The 55,400 - 55,500 area, which was a strong support, has now become a crucial resistance zone.
Immediate Support: The next key support level is the 55,200 mark. This is a psychological level that was tested and is a likely target for the bears.
15-Minute Chart (Intraday View)
Structure: The 15M chart provides a clearer picture of the intraday fall. The price is showing a minor consolidation after the sharp decline. This is likely a pause before the next move.
Key Levels:
Intraday Supply: The 55,400 area, which is the high of the recent consolidation.
Intraday Demand: The low of the recent consolidation and the intraday low, near 55,200.
Outlook: The intraday bias is bearish. The market is likely to continue its downward movement unless it can reclaim the 55,400 resistance level.
Trade Plan (Monday, 23rd September)
Market Outlook: The market is now in a short-term bearish phase. A "sell on rise" strategy seems more favorable, but a strong reversal from a key support level is also a possibility.
Bearish Scenario (Primary Plan)
Justification: The market has shown a clear change in structure with a breakdown of key levels. The path of least resistance is to the downside.
Entry: Look for a short entry if the price retests the 55,400 - 55,500 level and shows signs of rejection with a bearish candlestick pattern. Alternatively, a breakdown and 15-minute close below 55,200 would trigger a short entry.
Stop Loss (SL): Place a stop loss above 55,600.
Targets:
T1: 55,050 - 55,000 (Next major support).
T2: 54,800 (Next major demand zone).
Bullish Scenario (Counter-Trend Plan)
Justification: This is a counter-trend plan and should be approached with caution. It is based on the possibility of a strong bounce from a key support level.
Trigger: A strong bullish reversal candle (e.g., a hammer or engulfing pattern) near the 55,050 - 55,200 demand zone.
Entry: Long entry on a confirmed bounce from the demand zone.
Stop Loss (SL): Below 55,000.
Targets:
T1: 55,400 (Intraday resistance).
T2: 55,600 (Recent swing high).
Key Levels for Observation:
Immediate Decision Point: The 55,200 - 55,400 zone.
Bearish Confirmation: A break and sustained move below 55,200.
Bullish Confirmation: A recapture of the 55,400 level.
Line in the Sand: The 55,050 - 55,200 zone. The overall bullish trend is in jeopardy if this level is decisively broken.
Detailed Market Structure Breakdown
4-Hour Chart (Macro Trend)
Structure: The long-term trend remains bullish, as the index is still well above its early September lows. However, the last two 4-hour candles show a sharp rejection from the highs and a break below the ascending channel. This is a clear signal of weakness and suggests a potential deeper correction is in the works.
Key Levels:
Major Supply (Resistance): 55,800 - 56,000. This level has proven to be a very strong supply zone, rejecting the price on multiple occasions. It is now a critical resistance to watch.
Major Demand (Support): The most crucial support for the bulls is the 55,050 - 55,200 zone. This area, which includes a prior breakout level, is the key "line in the sand" for the current bullish trend. A break below this would signal a significant trend reversal.
1-Hour Chart (Intermediate View)
Structure: The 1H chart shows a clear MSS (Market Structure Shift) to the downside. The price has broken below the lower trendline of the rising channel and its immediate support at 55,400. This confirms the short-term bearish bias. The index is now making lower highs and lower lows.
Key Levels:
Immediate Resistance: The 55,400 - 55,500 area, which was a strong support, has now become a crucial resistance zone.
Immediate Support: The next key support level is the 55,200 mark. This is a psychological level that was tested and is a likely target for the bears.
15-Minute Chart (Intraday View)
Structure: The 15M chart provides a clearer picture of the intraday fall. The price is showing a minor consolidation after the sharp decline. This is likely a pause before the next move.
Key Levels:
Intraday Supply: The 55,400 area, which is the high of the recent consolidation.
Intraday Demand: The low of the recent consolidation and the intraday low, near 55,200.
Outlook: The intraday bias is bearish. The market is likely to continue its downward movement unless it can reclaim the 55,400 resistance level.
Trade Plan (Monday, 23rd September)
Market Outlook: The market is now in a short-term bearish phase. A "sell on rise" strategy seems more favorable, but a strong reversal from a key support level is also a possibility.
Bearish Scenario (Primary Plan)
Justification: The market has shown a clear change in structure with a breakdown of key levels. The path of least resistance is to the downside.
Entry: Look for a short entry if the price retests the 55,400 - 55,500 level and shows signs of rejection with a bearish candlestick pattern. Alternatively, a breakdown and 15-minute close below 55,200 would trigger a short entry.
Stop Loss (SL): Place a stop loss above 55,600.
Targets:
T1: 55,050 - 55,000 (Next major support).
T2: 54,800 (Next major demand zone).
Bullish Scenario (Counter-Trend Plan)
Justification: This is a counter-trend plan and should be approached with caution. It is based on the possibility of a strong bounce from a key support level.
Trigger: A strong bullish reversal candle (e.g., a hammer or engulfing pattern) near the 55,050 - 55,200 demand zone.
Entry: Long entry on a confirmed bounce from the demand zone.
Stop Loss (SL): Below 55,000.
Targets:
T1: 55,400 (Intraday resistance).
T2: 55,600 (Recent swing high).
Key Levels for Observation:
Immediate Decision Point: The 55,200 - 55,400 zone.
Bearish Confirmation: A break and sustained move below 55,200.
Bullish Confirmation: A recapture of the 55,400 level.
Line in the Sand: The 55,050 - 55,200 zone. The overall bullish trend is in jeopardy if this level is decisively broken.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.