(BTC.D) Altcoin Dominance Eyeing Up A Breakout to 40%
Updated
With altcoin dominance closing back above the rising 200 Week MA last week, confirming Bitcoin's long-term weakness in market dominance, "ALT.D" (1-BTC.D+99) has again held the 30% support a second time and is looking for a breakout above 33.75% with a target to 40%.
This would additionally be a TD Sequential trade on the Weekly chart with a Green 2 going above a Green 1, with oscillators (RSI, CMF and MACD) pointing to further upside. There will likely be some resistance and profit taking around the 50 Week MA around 35%, half way to the target, but I don't expect it to hold for long if volume continues to rise. The momentum would likely be too strong preceeding the confirmed trend change.
Reward/risk: 2.1
Entry: 33.76% - TD buy signal and and new swing high since July 2019
Target: 40.7% - Previous support level as resistance and 100 Week MA confluence
Stop Loss: 30.50% - Breakdown below the open of the 1 candle, 21 Week MA and into support range = bearish
To me, this is a perfect trade.
Previous altcoin dominance TA:
Altcoin Speculation Coming Soon... (October 2019)
Altcoin Dominance Bouncing From 0.382 Fib Retracement (September 2019)
This would additionally be a TD Sequential trade on the Weekly chart with a Green 2 going above a Green 1, with oscillators (RSI, CMF and MACD) pointing to further upside. There will likely be some resistance and profit taking around the 50 Week MA around 35%, half way to the target, but I don't expect it to hold for long if volume continues to rise. The momentum would likely be too strong preceeding the confirmed trend change.
Reward/risk: 2.1
Entry: 33.76% - TD buy signal and and new swing high since July 2019
Target: 40.7% - Previous support level as resistance and 100 Week MA confluence
Stop Loss: 30.50% - Breakdown below the open of the 1 candle, 21 Week MA and into support range = bearish
To me, this is a perfect trade.
Previous altcoin dominance TA:
Altcoin Speculation Coming Soon... (October 2019)
Altcoin Dominance Bouncing From 0.382 Fib Retracement (September 2019)
Note
Just noticed the CMF is also at the same "critical levels", a move above 0.15 would result in the same buying pressure as in 2017 & 2018 periods. This is why I also wouldn't be surprised to also see altcoin dominance rejected at current levels rather than breakout, hence waiting for a breakout before longing any more alts. While probability points to further upside, if sellers get dominance rejected where it is now, it would be result in rejection from the neutral/bullish rsi and critical cmf levels, as well as look like a macd fakeout. This would also be very reminiscent of June/July 2016, where there was nice bounce, followed by another 6 months of consolidation, so wouldn't be out the ordinary either.(Source bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5219614.msg53671778
Note
50 & 200 Day Golden Cross on Daily chart, confirming bullish confluence with Weekly perspective: Last seen February 3rd 2019 before dominance rallied 9.4% from confirmation to peak:
If early 2019 bullish move repeats itself, this would take dominance to 42%, the previous support and breakdown level that should now act as strong resistance.
Note
For more info on this TI Sequential indicator, see here:tonevays.com/indicator
Note
Altcoin dominance looks like it wants to pop upwards 5.35% (measured move) from Daily ascending triangle. Currently poking at resistance:Note
A look from the BTC.D perspective...As expected, dominance is getting rejected at this "tri-point" (confluence) of resistance; VPVR PoC, logirthimic support turned resistance and again the 200 Week MA. Very bearish.
4hr descending triangle previously referenced has been invalidated, however a new bearish channel is forming (within the longer-term bearish channel). Still bearish:
Souce: bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5219614.msg53729788
Note
ALT.D Weekly time-frameAltcoin dominance trade cancelled as Green 3 failed to move above the Green 2 for the ideal sequential trade (*). Now we are on a Green 4, which while is still bullish, isn't the perfect TD trade that I was looking to execute (as this could end up being 1-4 candle correction, as opposed to a 1-9 sequential count).
Will now look to target the 200 Week MA support levels, if the mid-level of the bull channel holds as support.
Note; I'm still in longs from Sept/Oct 2019, but not intending to open any new altcoin trades on a breakout above previous highs, based on the Weekly chart at least (the Daily/4hr is very different story, see below).
[Note: On the chart below it shows dominance making a new yearly high (33.76%), however, the actual BTC.D dominance chart failed to make new yearly lows (now at 66.07% due to cmc recalculations). Reminder: Always check the live charts before executing any trades. Do not follow trade me, no refunds.]
BTC.D on a Daily time-frame
[img width=1000]
Still within bearish channel, as a bear flag, with around a -3% measured move.
TD sequential bearish Red 3 (moving below Red 2 would active a short trade)
RSI bearish at 32, close to oversold conditions <30.
CMF neutral, declining slightly so slightly bearish
MACD bear-crossing today, confirmation on close:
Source: bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5219614.msg53762404
Order cancelled
Summary: Weekly trade cancelled, will look for 200 Week MA support retest.Waiting to see how the bearish Daily chart plays out to take that trade instead.
Note
Would of been an aright trade after all on Daily time-frames, but now anticipating the correcting:
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