BitcoinUpdated Big nasty drop! is BTC doomed?
Hi guys. what a day! day after day, btc is really KILLING us! yesterdays was a dangerous day! i called to go long at 6380~64 levels, my stop reached! although i did tell you guys to take some profit before the drop. however,
this drop was not anticipated! we never know, an individual, to guess out this market! however i did call stop loss at 6.38 tight. i hope many would have put stoploss and reduced their loss very tight.
anyway, that doesn't mean that we are not going to trade! we always need to be safely aggressive in trading, not prohibit it! so, btc broke out of this huge triangle, we made from a week ago. very sad, i was waiting for another short position at 66! however, whales as always do not give easy spots to individual investors.
as you see in the chart, this big triangle pattern we were making, which had target above 6640, failed! it died after a week of struggling! now, i quickly looked at directional movement, which tells us up or downtrend, but the orange line sparked up, which we have quickly turned into a downtrend, or at least violent sideways situation.
so we can further drop to 6.1~5.8k, or we would defend 62, but very violent over the days as marked in yellow box in the chart.
now btc is making a little move upwards from 62, so it needs to overcome 63.8 with good volume. now, little doubtful. if it does not overcome 63.8 another drop may come to 6200ish, or even below to 6k zone.
at the same time, we must know two things. 1, ETF approval decision comes at Aug 23rd, 2. Short position peaks the highest since April.
1,2 is very important factor you have to look at. if ETF is approved, we will have a huge upwards movement no matter what price we are at the point. Also, since short positions are way too high, we must think that a squeeze can come along.
we have possibility that before the ETF approval, btc will show some recovery. so a long position can be opened more likely at 22nd, only for a short term period(incase we drop after the approval). also, short positions are way too high, we saw
this back in April. however, we are still in a major downtrend, so it may be just the answer to it.
so keep in mind both. the market will be back in a strong direction 2 days after at 23rd.
i think market today is in chaos, still for today, short positions is little better for scalping.
simple trading plans today are.
1. open short
6340~6370(if there is a retest to this level)
target 6250/6200/or below level
2. open longs
strongly not recommended. only try at 6250~6290 zone, scalping to 6330~40/70 at the highest.
stoploss:6230
this drop was not anticipated! we never know, an individual, to guess out this market! however i did call stop loss at 6.38 tight. i hope many would have put stoploss and reduced their loss very tight.
anyway, that doesn't mean that we are not going to trade! we always need to be safely aggressive in trading, not prohibit it! so, btc broke out of this huge triangle, we made from a week ago. very sad, i was waiting for another short position at 66! however, whales as always do not give easy spots to individual investors.
as you see in the chart, this big triangle pattern we were making, which had target above 6640, failed! it died after a week of struggling! now, i quickly looked at directional movement, which tells us up or downtrend, but the orange line sparked up, which we have quickly turned into a downtrend, or at least violent sideways situation.
so we can further drop to 6.1~5.8k, or we would defend 62, but very violent over the days as marked in yellow box in the chart.
now btc is making a little move upwards from 62, so it needs to overcome 63.8 with good volume. now, little doubtful. if it does not overcome 63.8 another drop may come to 6200ish, or even below to 6k zone.
at the same time, we must know two things. 1, ETF approval decision comes at Aug 23rd, 2. Short position peaks the highest since April.
1,2 is very important factor you have to look at. if ETF is approved, we will have a huge upwards movement no matter what price we are at the point. Also, since short positions are way too high, we must think that a squeeze can come along.
we have possibility that before the ETF approval, btc will show some recovery. so a long position can be opened more likely at 22nd, only for a short term period(incase we drop after the approval). also, short positions are way too high, we saw
this back in April. however, we are still in a major downtrend, so it may be just the answer to it.
so keep in mind both. the market will be back in a strong direction 2 days after at 23rd.
i think market today is in chaos, still for today, short positions is little better for scalping.
simple trading plans today are.
1. open short
6340~6370(if there is a retest to this level)
target 6250/6200/or below level
2. open longs
strongly not recommended. only try at 6250~6290 zone, scalping to 6330~40/70 at the highest.
stoploss:6230
Note
market looks better now! if you have opened shorts at 7370, try to sell them a bit at retracement. even if this is the short term top, it will come back to overcome that.lets see if it can overcome 63.8 levels. if it goes past this, it can shoot to 65 even!
Note
i mean opened shorts at 6370 level~Note
ok. seems that 63.8 resistance can be broken and go upwards! these are some scenarios~ so please check. it might spurt up to 65 zone too look forward to it, it can happen~
Note
guys, i think btc will try 6600 in the next 12~18hours or so. daily 21ema is 6600, good place to short. it may give a run up, retrace back to early 65 or middle-high 64 levels. HOWEVER, you have to pay attention to 23rd etf approval. if approved we SELL shorts right away! i mean right away, if market starts to push up, we go long at pullbacks. if not approved we hold the shorts firmly. current point, try to grab some shorts at 65.7~68 if btc climbs up.Note
guys one more thing. if you open short positions do NOT ALL in. strategy for this is, ETF apporoved/ETF not approved. two chances align. i think, you can open short from 64.7 up to 65.7~8(now bear div appearing on time frames) and not even buying 66, with about 50% of your money. those are two reasons. open short very upper levels if it gets approved(like maybe 7.7or something), 66 will no resistance at all it will jump right up. 6640, may be a stoploss for this trade. if your stop is not triggered and it runs up so fast, on the other hand, 50% of money will be also used when etf is not approved, we go in lot more at that point regardless of price. leave 50% its for margin, its for the uproar that might happen to upper level we cannot imagine. use 10 leverage, liquidation price is 7k, once approved you change that to 3 or 5 to keep safe+sell it at pullback or the price at that point. this is risky, everybody says etf will not be approved, but we never know until rumor becomes fact.Note
let me contract this. 1. open short 64.7~65.7~8(ladder up)-only 50% of money(currently daily rsi 47 is a resistance with top price at 64.8)
2. set stoploss=6640(i think price would not reach that high, only when etf is approved, so it is not buying price a stop price)
3. remaining 50% of money will be opened short position at the moment when etf approval is denied+or will be used for margin
4.leverage 10(etf approval change to 3~5)
Trade closed: stop reached
Short trade stop is reached. However will do try shorting at 67~69.
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