Previous week was marked with the FOMC meeting and its decision to hold interest rates at current levels until the next FOMC meeting. Projections and rhetoric from the Fed was not welcomed by markets, hence, while equities and Treasuries were losing in value, the US dollar was gaining. Bitcoin had a relatively good first part of the week, when price reached the highest weekly level of $27.476. However, after a FOMC meeting, Bitcoin took the reversal side on a USD strengthening. The level of $26.370 was the lowest weekly level, while BTC is ending the week above $26.6K.
Technical analysis is not favorable for BTC at this moment. Two weeks ago, the moving average of 50 and 200 days created a so-called “dead-cross” , which occurs when MA50 crosses MA200 from the upside. During the previous week this cross was clearly confirmed on the charts, which is an indication of a high potential that trend change is coming, but on a negative side. This formation increases the probability for BTC to lose more in strength in the coming period of several weeks or months, except in case that something extraordinary occurs on the market which could reverse this course. Such an event, for example, might be that the SEC approves the first spot BTC ETF, but such a decision could be expected somewhere in October this year, and is still under huge question. As for other technical indicators, RSI continues to struggle to break the 50 since the beginning of September, which actually reflects market uncertainty over the direction of trade. The oversold side should be reached in order for BTC to clearly start a reversal track, however, considering extremely low daily trading volumes, this seems to be an extremely hard task at this moment.
The “dead-cross” formation will be revealed during the higher time-frame in the future period, but for the week ahead, it should not be expected to have higher movements from BTC. There are continuously low daily trading volumes which were unable to push the price of BTC to the short term resistance line at level of $28K during the previous week. In this sense, this line is pending testing, which might occur in the week ahead. In case that this line is tested, it could be a trigger for a short reversal of the BTC price, down to the support line at $ 25K for one more time. However, if trading volumes continue to be low, BTC could just spend the week ahead oscillating between $ 26K-$ 27K levels.
Technical analysis is not favorable for BTC at this moment. Two weeks ago, the moving average of 50 and 200 days created a so-called “dead-cross” , which occurs when MA50 crosses MA200 from the upside. During the previous week this cross was clearly confirmed on the charts, which is an indication of a high potential that trend change is coming, but on a negative side. This formation increases the probability for BTC to lose more in strength in the coming period of several weeks or months, except in case that something extraordinary occurs on the market which could reverse this course. Such an event, for example, might be that the SEC approves the first spot BTC ETF, but such a decision could be expected somewhere in October this year, and is still under huge question. As for other technical indicators, RSI continues to struggle to break the 50 since the beginning of September, which actually reflects market uncertainty over the direction of trade. The oversold side should be reached in order for BTC to clearly start a reversal track, however, considering extremely low daily trading volumes, this seems to be an extremely hard task at this moment.
The “dead-cross” formation will be revealed during the higher time-frame in the future period, but for the week ahead, it should not be expected to have higher movements from BTC. There are continuously low daily trading volumes which were unable to push the price of BTC to the short term resistance line at level of $28K during the previous week. In this sense, this line is pending testing, which might occur in the week ahead. In case that this line is tested, it could be a trigger for a short reversal of the BTC price, down to the support line at $ 25K for one more time. However, if trading volumes continue to be low, BTC could just spend the week ahead oscillating between $ 26K-$ 27K levels.
