Solving the Bitcoin puzzle, part 2
My followers know i have made several long trades on Bitcoin for almost 2 weeks. Most were surprised because i have been a big bear for months now. But many were just as surprised when i was shorting Bitcoin at the 11.500.11.600 2 months ago :)
*I went long at 6460 2 weeks ago because of the bear trap i predicted perfectly, but i did expect a bigger bounce than the 7500 but i took profit on the way up at 7330 and on the way down at 6850.
*Few days later i went long at 6560 (Friday) but because of that sudden drop 2 days ago most of my profit got burned, i got half out at 6950 and the rest at 6650.
*Yesterday i went long again at 6710 still expecting the same game plan og the Big whales. That is a big shake out of all the bears we have lately.
I telling you about these trades again, to show you that trading has to be a part of a bigger picture. The trend is clearly down so it is a risky trade, but my view is that we will have a short term trend change. I can't give away al my secrets, but some important signals that told me to go short in the 11kK's are telling me to go long now.
Many people are waiting for 4K prices and 5K prices to get in this market again, but markets never do the most obvious because that would mean many people would be making money now and that's just not possible. So we could IF we can push higher from here, short positions will start to close and turn into buys and depending on how high we go, it could trigger buyers on getting in again because of FOMO. A week ago i was convinced that this was part of the plan, so the big players will be able to unload again without pushing prices down at higher prices. Because this accumulation is taking so long now, i am having some doubts of how high we could go.
I have been giving targets of 7500/6000/4000 (just numbers guys) for a few months now and it is still my bigger plan, as long as we stay below the 10K, and actually below the 9400.
But markets move in waves, they only give massive crashes in a straight line if there is a catalyst that puts the fear in a market. We don't have one yet! There are allot of things wrong with this market, that's the reason we are in this bear market, but it's not an H&S that pushes a market down, NO. Fundamental facts push markets down.
I have been giving several Alt coins analysis a week ago (what i usually don't do here), but just look at them and you will get a sense of what the market is doing now. Some have already shown a real breakout of the short term down trend. Bitcoin is still inside a big triangle, it has broken out from it but there is no real confirmation yet. That's why i say it's still inside of it. It's still bullish that we have made a successful retest of the resistance, and as i am writing this we are above the 6900 resistance, but i want to see price break above the 7200 resistance to have a first confirmation that we have broken out of the short term down trend
Problem for a day trader is, we could still drop towards the 6600 and maybe even make another small bear trap if we drop below the 6400/6500. I would still be buying if we get there. Only a break below the 6000 would really change my mind about this theory. I have my stop loss around my entry level now so it's already a free trade for me, if it goes through it will just wait and see what the price will do and for a signal to go long or short again
Please don't forget to like guys, thanks
*I went long at 6460 2 weeks ago because of the bear trap i predicted perfectly, but i did expect a bigger bounce than the 7500 but i took profit on the way up at 7330 and on the way down at 6850.
*Few days later i went long at 6560 (Friday) but because of that sudden drop 2 days ago most of my profit got burned, i got half out at 6950 and the rest at 6650.
*Yesterday i went long again at 6710 still expecting the same game plan og the Big whales. That is a big shake out of all the bears we have lately.
I telling you about these trades again, to show you that trading has to be a part of a bigger picture. The trend is clearly down so it is a risky trade, but my view is that we will have a short term trend change. I can't give away al my secrets, but some important signals that told me to go short in the 11kK's are telling me to go long now.
Many people are waiting for 4K prices and 5K prices to get in this market again, but markets never do the most obvious because that would mean many people would be making money now and that's just not possible. So we could IF we can push higher from here, short positions will start to close and turn into buys and depending on how high we go, it could trigger buyers on getting in again because of FOMO. A week ago i was convinced that this was part of the plan, so the big players will be able to unload again without pushing prices down at higher prices. Because this accumulation is taking so long now, i am having some doubts of how high we could go.
I have been giving targets of 7500/6000/4000 (just numbers guys) for a few months now and it is still my bigger plan, as long as we stay below the 10K, and actually below the 9400.
But markets move in waves, they only give massive crashes in a straight line if there is a catalyst that puts the fear in a market. We don't have one yet! There are allot of things wrong with this market, that's the reason we are in this bear market, but it's not an H&S that pushes a market down, NO. Fundamental facts push markets down.
I have been giving several Alt coins analysis a week ago (what i usually don't do here), but just look at them and you will get a sense of what the market is doing now. Some have already shown a real breakout of the short term down trend. Bitcoin is still inside a big triangle, it has broken out from it but there is no real confirmation yet. That's why i say it's still inside of it. It's still bullish that we have made a successful retest of the resistance, and as i am writing this we are above the 6900 resistance, but i want to see price break above the 7200 resistance to have a first confirmation that we have broken out of the short term down trend
Problem for a day trader is, we could still drop towards the 6600 and maybe even make another small bear trap if we drop below the 6400/6500. I would still be buying if we get there. Only a break below the 6000 would really change my mind about this theory. I have my stop loss around my entry level now so it's already a free trade for me, if it goes through it will just wait and see what the price will do and for a signal to go long or short again
Please don't forget to like guys, thanks
Note
And again not much to add, price is still just frustrating bears and bulls, neither side dares to take initiative. Price broke out the channel i have been showing since 2 days ago. Like i mentioned i do not give high value to it, because price action seems to controlled to be normal. Anyway, it broke out to the upside but the 7000 was to heavy for bulls, or to scary to push it right through. So we are back in it again. Like i mentioned in my other analysis, it's better to watch the ranges (red and green area). It look like the red area 6880 serves as a small support now and the resistance now is probably the 7000ish. Bulls can keep this game going on of course, or are the bears playing this game?
This sideways action just confuses everyone, all we can do is hope that price will choose the direction today or tomorrow. Until then it's maybe better to wait it out if your not in it already. It's just to much risk if your not willing to take it.
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Whats so confusing, many alts are showing very solid bottom formation, but they did the same a few days ago :).Where is the love guys :(
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Toughest job for an TA analyst, i keep extending the same lines :) LOLSeems like that red support area is doing it's work. All we can do is hope it pushes through now and be done with this sideways action. Exchanges are probably feeling it in their fees as well the past 2 weeks
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Wow what a massive rally going on now :)Note
I have been watching the price action/order book (no other action to watch at :) But i am getting mixed feelings nowNote
The mixed signals are increasing! I am seeing a lot of distributing since yesterday already at these prices. This is really bad and almost wants to make me sell my position. That's why we really need a push very soon and with volume!!Note
I am leaving half my pos with a stop at entry 6710 and other half around 6830 to ensure at least some profit.Note
2 days of going slowly up and in 5 minutes giving almost everything away again. How much fun this has become lately. So it fell out of the channel but is still finding some support now. Making a bear flag suggesting we will drop even more. I am thinking about closing my other half as well for a 1xx point profit and just leave the market as it is until we see a real breakout up or down.
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And we are back again, a clear bear flag just got invalidated like it's nothing. It could just be a retest of the channel. Only confirmation would be if price gets above the high of yesterday. I still have my position and will my stop at my entry level of 6710Note
Who's the man people :)Note
90% sure we will see the 8k later tonight. Even if we make a drop from here. I am going to ride it out. Stop at 7000 now :)Note
Guys, I think I deserve more like, squeeze it to 1000. Think I was the only one who figured out the big plan the last 2 weeks. Put me back on top and I will update again and try to make a new analysis later todayNote
I have to be honoust though, it was not 100% comfortable, but it’s always like that. Just like when I was shorting it at 11.600 2 months ago. Seen these things to many times at the stock market. And crypto market has become more like that because of all the whales/hedge fundsNote
For bullish momentum to stay at maximum speed, it should not drop below the 7550. I think this will be the bull flag channel (it's a guess of course). But i think this flag will take half a day probably, but who knows, maybe they won't bore us this timeNote
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Okay, this bull flag is taking quite some time now, not unexpected. But this means that bulls are still not really willing to get in the market. Not really strange because the price got pumped quite allot and buyers are probably waiting to get in for a better price around 7500/7550Note
And allot of people are taking profit now, the ones who WERE long from the 6K's. Normal after a 1000 point rally in half an hourNote
New analysis
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.