Hello everyone, trading crypto isn’t just about looking at charts. To stay ahead, you need to understand the actual behaviour of holders, large capital flows, and buying/selling pressure – and that’s the power of on-chain analysis.
1️⃣ MVRV – Profits Reveal Market Sentiment
MVRV = Market Value / Realized Value. Simply put, it shows the average profit/loss of holders.
High MVRV → many holders are in profit → risk of selling increases.
Low MVRV → many holders are at a loss → the market is more likely to bounce.
Practical example: BTC dropping to a low MVRV zone during a long-term uptrend is often a good entry, because weaker holders are less likely to sell and price can rebound.
2️⃣ NUPL – Market Psychology in a Single Number
NUPL = Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, measuring total unrealized gains or losses of holders.
NUPL > 0.6 → market is greedy, pullbacks likely.
NUPL < 0 → market is fearful, cheap buying opportunities emerge.
Combining NUPL with price action and volume helps you choose buying/selling moments wisely and avoid FOMO.
3️⃣ Whale Activity – Tracking Big Players
Monitor large wallets (usually ≥1,000 BTC/ETH).
Moving coins to exchanges → potential selling → price under downward pressure.
Moving coins to private wallets → supply decreases → price may rise.
Watching whale activity ahead of major moves helps spot real trends, which ordinary charts might not reveal.
4️⃣ Exchange Inflow/Outflow – Let the Money Speak
Large inflow → more BTC/ETH on exchanges → higher selling pressure, price drops.
Large outflow → coins withdrawn → supply tightens, price tends to rise.
Combine this with trend, breakout points, and crypto news to confirm upcoming moves.
5️⃣ Application Tips
No single on-chain metric is a guaranteed signal. The strength lies in combining them: MVRV + NUPL + whale activity + inflow/outflow + price action + volume.
Example: BTC enters a low MVRV zone, NUPL < 0, whales withdraw → potential buying zone, confirmed by H4/D1 chart breakout.
Wishing you all successful trading and profitable sessions!
1️⃣ MVRV – Profits Reveal Market Sentiment
MVRV = Market Value / Realized Value. Simply put, it shows the average profit/loss of holders.
High MVRV → many holders are in profit → risk of selling increases.
Low MVRV → many holders are at a loss → the market is more likely to bounce.
Practical example: BTC dropping to a low MVRV zone during a long-term uptrend is often a good entry, because weaker holders are less likely to sell and price can rebound.
2️⃣ NUPL – Market Psychology in a Single Number
NUPL = Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, measuring total unrealized gains or losses of holders.
NUPL > 0.6 → market is greedy, pullbacks likely.
NUPL < 0 → market is fearful, cheap buying opportunities emerge.
Combining NUPL with price action and volume helps you choose buying/selling moments wisely and avoid FOMO.
3️⃣ Whale Activity – Tracking Big Players
Monitor large wallets (usually ≥1,000 BTC/ETH).
Moving coins to exchanges → potential selling → price under downward pressure.
Moving coins to private wallets → supply decreases → price may rise.
Watching whale activity ahead of major moves helps spot real trends, which ordinary charts might not reveal.
4️⃣ Exchange Inflow/Outflow – Let the Money Speak
Large inflow → more BTC/ETH on exchanges → higher selling pressure, price drops.
Large outflow → coins withdrawn → supply tightens, price tends to rise.
Combine this with trend, breakout points, and crypto news to confirm upcoming moves.
5️⃣ Application Tips
No single on-chain metric is a guaranteed signal. The strength lies in combining them: MVRV + NUPL + whale activity + inflow/outflow + price action + volume.
Example: BTC enters a low MVRV zone, NUPL < 0, whales withdraw → potential buying zone, confirmed by H4/D1 chart breakout.
Wishing you all successful trading and profitable sessions!
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.