BTC: Bulls, Do Not Get Overexcited!

On the daily chart Ichimoku Cloud continues to act as a perfect resistance/support. We saw a perfect demonstration of it in October-November of 2019.

Now look at recent action: we tested it a couple of times while we were consolidating around 7k and today we got a perfect rejection right at the Ichimoku Cloud resistance. Moreover, we got a pretty nasty rejection by the 200-Day EMA. Even though the daily is not closed, what we see right now is a reversal candle at the top of an uptrend rejected by resistance.

Break these two and we’ll meet the 200-Day MA. I think we will hit this MA, but here is what we need to consider: with each passing day the 200-Day MA will decline more sharply, because it will use candles with lower prices instead of those at 10-14k. This means that the target for upside breakout will get lower and lower.

Here is what we can envision (this projection can be wrong!)

The price can travel inside the Ichimoku Cloud (the way it did in Oct.-Nov.) until the 200-Day MA approaches the cloud resistance. And then the decisive move happens - rejection or breakout. Which side are you on?

Important area to watch for support is ~7800. Things will turn extremely bullish the moment we go above today’s high. When the Bull Run? Conservative answer - BTC needs to break above 10k. Until then it's just a dead cat bounce.


What do you think about it? Give us your opinion in the comments!



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The information given is never financial advice. Always do your own research.