Is Bitcoin broken? Why isn't it going up?

Sep 5, 2023

A lot of folks are scratching their heads, wondering why Bitcoin isn't taking off like a rocket 🚀. Some even reckon it needs to take a nosedive before we see any action. But what's the deal with Bitcoin? Why does it seem like we're just going sideways? Let me break down a few things that, in my humble opinion, are affecting Bitcoin's price and what I think might go down.

**1️⃣ Miners Offloading Bitcoin**
Let's talk about mining. Miners are the backbone of the Bitcoin network. They validate transactions and keep the blockchain secure. But here's the kicker: Bitcoin's got this thing called "halving," where the rewards miners get are cut in half. In a few months, the cost of mining will double as the block reward drops from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block. So, miners are stocking up to cover their costs after the halving. Most of this selling happens on the down-low to avoid messing with the price, hence the sideways action.

**2️⃣ Big Picture Stuff**
Bitcoin was born in the ashes of the 2008 banking crisis, where Quantitative Easing (QE) was the name of the game, meaning cheap money galore. But now, we're in a period of Quantitative Tightening. Interest rates are sky-high, making money expensive. People are holding onto their cash, expecting a possible recession down the line. Geopolitical tensions and global shake-ups don't help either.

**3️⃣ It's All About the Cycles**
Take a look at the Bitcoin price chart, and you'll see cycles every four years. Bull run after the halving, hitting a peak, then dipping into bear territory. Rinse and repeat. BTC hasn't broken its all-time high before the next halving so far, and I don't see why it would now.

✅ So, what's the outlook, you ask?

📍 We're probably in for more sideways action, at least until we get close to the halving. Here's what's on my radar:

**1️⃣ BlackRock's ETF:** They wouldn't bother filing for an ETF if they didn't think it'd get the green light. The expected decision date is March 30th, 2024, right before the next BTC halving.

**2️⃣ Scarcity on Exchanges:** Unlike past halvings, there's hardly any BTC sitting on exchanges. This scarcity could lead to some wild price swings.

**3️⃣ The Halving:** As Satoshi said, "The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost." After the halving, production costs double, so BTC's gotta climb to catch up. Miners will try to hold onto their BTC to turn a profit, making it even scarcer.

**4️⃣ End of QT:** When people stop spending, and the economy tanks, we'll likely see a shift from Quantitative Tightening (QT) back to Quantitative Easing (QE). That's a good sign for BTC and investment in general.

❓ When's all this gonna happen? My gut says not much until the second half of 2024, but if those four factors line up nicely, we might get a Bitcoin rally reminiscent of 2017, rolling into 2025. 🚀

🎙️Got thoughts? Share 'em in the comments and hit that like button if you found this overview useful. Don't forget to follow for more ideas.

Nov 15, 2023

Note

2 months later and very little has changed, apart from the fact that price is (for now) following the exact path that was laid out in the chart. Let's see what the future brings.