Bitcoin Retracement to Logarithmic Downtrend
First chart is the hourly linear Bitcoin Bitfinex chart. After the brief rally yesterday afternoon up to $9,170, price then came back down to the lows last night of $8,652 and headed sideways for the majority of the day. Sideways action after the rally the last few weeks, ended up resulting in the bulls getting bored to make something happen.
I spotted a bearish flag highlighted by the black channel lines where price bounced from the top to the bottom of the channel yesterday before recovering and making a bit of a symmetrical flag highlighted in with the blue channel today.
Then in the last hour price broke back out and up where it now resides at at $9,118. I believe this is temporary bullish momentum that will retest that .50 Fibonacci green line at $9,210.
There’s almost a bit of a inverse head and shoulders bottom that formed today too with the neck line being the at purple horizontal support at $8,912. Notice how that yellow downtrend line is also continuing to provide support. Same goes for the 200 hour moving average, which is the red line that comes creeping up from the bottom there.
There is bullish diverging momentum on the the MACD and RSI for now, so maybe price gets even further up there on the Fibonacci retracement to .618 at $9,341.
On the daily linear Bitcoin Bitfinex chart, we have a big red bullish engulfing candle from yesterday, that is almost always an indicator of a big reversal. The green candle we have today is a valiant attempt to continue the bullish momentum and push price back into that turquoise channel.
After this short-term rally in price, I would expect the next candle tomorrow to push price right back down to the yellow support line at $8,816 and if it doesn’t break through there tomorrow. Next stop, over the weekend is going to be back to the maroon downtrending logarithmic support around $8,300 to $8,100.
If the retest is successful, price should bounce around that .786 Fibonacci line on the long-term pitchfork for a few days before exploding higher sometime next week.
A potential complication is this article from someone who has been tracking the Mt. Gox trustees wallets and has found that they have removed 16,000 BTC and BCH and moved them to exchange wallets, similar to some of these big unexpected price dumps back in Dec, Jan, Feb and March when price was at critical technical levels.
This is something to keep in mind if you are considering looking for an entry point off of a bounce at the logarithmic downtrend line. Stop losses should be kept tight.
I am including two more screenshots of the daily charts on Coinbase and you can see what these whales did back on the linear red trend line in March when everyone thought the bull market has resumed and then it turned out to be a bull trap. And the logarithmic chart with maroon line that shows where we are now and what could happen.
I do not trust these Mt. Gox trustees as I feel they are coordinating with other powerful entities attempting to manage market sentiment through price manipulation. These trustees had previously stated they would not be selling anymore BTC and BCH on the market until the Mt. Gox bankrupty case was handed on September 18th, but these actions are a bit suspect. Something to keep an eye on in these weeks ahead.
I spotted a bearish flag highlighted by the black channel lines where price bounced from the top to the bottom of the channel yesterday before recovering and making a bit of a symmetrical flag highlighted in with the blue channel today.
Then in the last hour price broke back out and up where it now resides at at $9,118. I believe this is temporary bullish momentum that will retest that .50 Fibonacci green line at $9,210.
There’s almost a bit of a inverse head and shoulders bottom that formed today too with the neck line being the at purple horizontal support at $8,912. Notice how that yellow downtrend line is also continuing to provide support. Same goes for the 200 hour moving average, which is the red line that comes creeping up from the bottom there.
There is bullish diverging momentum on the the MACD and RSI for now, so maybe price gets even further up there on the Fibonacci retracement to .618 at $9,341.
On the daily linear Bitcoin Bitfinex chart, we have a big red bullish engulfing candle from yesterday, that is almost always an indicator of a big reversal. The green candle we have today is a valiant attempt to continue the bullish momentum and push price back into that turquoise channel.
After this short-term rally in price, I would expect the next candle tomorrow to push price right back down to the yellow support line at $8,816 and if it doesn’t break through there tomorrow. Next stop, over the weekend is going to be back to the maroon downtrending logarithmic support around $8,300 to $8,100.
If the retest is successful, price should bounce around that .786 Fibonacci line on the long-term pitchfork for a few days before exploding higher sometime next week.
A potential complication is this article from someone who has been tracking the Mt. Gox trustees wallets and has found that they have removed 16,000 BTC and BCH and moved them to exchange wallets, similar to some of these big unexpected price dumps back in Dec, Jan, Feb and March when price was at critical technical levels.
This is something to keep in mind if you are considering looking for an entry point off of a bounce at the logarithmic downtrend line. Stop losses should be kept tight.
I am including two more screenshots of the daily charts on Coinbase and you can see what these whales did back on the linear red trend line in March when everyone thought the bull market has resumed and then it turned out to be a bull trap. And the logarithmic chart with maroon line that shows where we are now and what could happen.
I do not trust these Mt. Gox trustees as I feel they are coordinating with other powerful entities attempting to manage market sentiment through price manipulation. These trustees had previously stated they would not be selling anymore BTC and BCH on the market until the Mt. Gox bankrupty case was handed on September 18th, but these actions are a bit suspect. Something to keep an eye on in these weeks ahead.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.