Bitcoin bulls are back in the game again
Updated
In my previous analysis i talked about the spoofing on Btifinex from the 6600/6700 all the way down to 6400ish. I said that usually they do it to push people in to their buy or sell orders, but because they did it from the high to the lows, i was not sure about it. Since we rallied up again to the 6700, i can only think of 2 options here.
1) They did not accumulate enough at the lows and were pushing the price down into their buy orders at the 6500/6300
2) Just certain whales who have the power to just swing trade from the lows to the highs and back again, since volume is low.
I am quite sure it is not a coincidence, because (as i mentioned in the previous analysis) Bitfinex is usually the most bullish exchange out there. They have been for more than 2 months now (maybe even more just don't remember). But only on that Monday, during the drop from 6700 to 6350, all of a sudden they were at the same levels as Bitmex. And right after we hit the low around 6400 they were the bullish one again. Coincidence?? Very unlikely IMO.
Volume on this push up is not low but certainly not high, so not real confirmation yet from the volume side. But that will probably show if we break the 6800/6900, again, IF we break it. We had some pumps on alts these days like BCH but many other alts are still sleeping though, not really confirming this rally of Bitcoin. They have shown moves up, but not what we are used to from alts. But it's to early to say if it's being careful or a bad sign. Think the next half day will be important. If Bitcoin can hold the 6650 and stay inside this bull flag, we should see alts increase slowly, at least NOT drop.
One very big win for Bitcoin, is they broke that resistance line i talked about in the previous analysis. Those 3 lines in the chart on the right, which was a very big sign of weakness. So they made a good step forward now, but still a long way to go of course. The biggest resistance will probably be the 6800/6900. It's to early to say of course, but i think if they can break this rally, the 7100/7200 and 7400 will be a formality. For the coming hours, bulls need to keep the pressure on the bears by keeping the price above the 6650. If they fail to do this, the chances for a Bart/Bitmex whatever move increase allot. It won't be the first bull flag that shits it's pants.
Previous analysis:
1) They did not accumulate enough at the lows and were pushing the price down into their buy orders at the 6500/6300
2) Just certain whales who have the power to just swing trade from the lows to the highs and back again, since volume is low.
I am quite sure it is not a coincidence, because (as i mentioned in the previous analysis) Bitfinex is usually the most bullish exchange out there. They have been for more than 2 months now (maybe even more just don't remember). But only on that Monday, during the drop from 6700 to 6350, all of a sudden they were at the same levels as Bitmex. And right after we hit the low around 6400 they were the bullish one again. Coincidence?? Very unlikely IMO.
Volume on this push up is not low but certainly not high, so not real confirmation yet from the volume side. But that will probably show if we break the 6800/6900, again, IF we break it. We had some pumps on alts these days like BCH but many other alts are still sleeping though, not really confirming this rally of Bitcoin. They have shown moves up, but not what we are used to from alts. But it's to early to say if it's being careful or a bad sign. Think the next half day will be important. If Bitcoin can hold the 6650 and stay inside this bull flag, we should see alts increase slowly, at least NOT drop.
One very big win for Bitcoin, is they broke that resistance line i talked about in the previous analysis. Those 3 lines in the chart on the right, which was a very big sign of weakness. So they made a good step forward now, but still a long way to go of course. The biggest resistance will probably be the 6800/6900. It's to early to say of course, but i think if they can break this rally, the 7100/7200 and 7400 will be a formality. For the coming hours, bulls need to keep the pressure on the bears by keeping the price above the 6650. If they fail to do this, the chances for a Bart/Bitmex whatever move increase allot. It won't be the first bull flag that shits it's pants.
Previous analysis:
Note
What a beautiful picture to wake up to again, seeing a Bart move on a larger time frame. Just scrolled through several charts, from what i can see, the volume was good for the move, but what a member told me, the price difference between Finex and Mex reached almost 40 points again during that attempt. Based on what i can see, it's probably not even done manually but with a bot, because the move is identical. I will show you more of these moves later on so you can see what i mean.Looking at TA, seems we got resistance from that other line of the triangle and so far we have found support from the previous one. I am not sure if these lines have real value, but lets assume it. The bounce up from this drop is decent, but so far it's all still looking like a bear flag. It could all be a stop hunt/shake out, but don't want to be too positive about it. Whatever happens, the 6500ish should not break, the bulls need to hold this level!
On the right we can see the former resistance that became support has become resistance again.
Note
It's again the 6660 that is a heavy resistance now, just like a week ago.Note
The price action is getting random again, probably mostly bots running the show at the moment. It's almost weekend so the shit show will start again until Monday. The 6650/60 looked like a clear resistance, it broke after my last update, but the Bitmex brothers pushed it back down so at the moment it's in no mans-land. Small H&S in the making now, but could just as easily fail as well.
The Bounces from the lows today look quite good, we can see the wicks in the candles showing buying support. Anything above the 6500ish is a support level from the bullish view, because that means another higher low can be formed here. Which could make an even more solid foundation to break that 6800/900 resistance. If the 6500 breaks, the 6400 will probably be the last support for the bulls. Below that level, difficult to say, probably drop much more.
Note
As i said, shit show. Trust me, this does not make me smile or anything, makes me sad even how the king of crypto, the decentrale/neutral/currency for the people by the people coin, is the little B of some traders who have enough funds to play around with, play these tricks. Anyway, for whatever value basic TA still has, this move is normally a small bear trap and since we moved above the 6650/6680, we should see follow through now towards the 6800. But if it doesn't happen within the next 15 min or so, than forget about the value of this small V shape, because than it's just another stop hunt and could just as easily drop or go sideways again.
Note
And another fake move, something we see allot in these 6K levels. The rally the bulls made is failing once again. After some good moves, the selling pressure was too high. The bullish view i had for the coming days was this pattern, something we saw a month ago as well. This would mean we would be in that yellow part of last months move. Means the 6380/6420 has to hold, actually even the current low. But since there is still no bounce, it looks like a small bear flag, indicating another wave down. Bulls need to get it above the 6560 to get more neutral again. Best advice i can give, is staying out until we see a real break 6800 or 6300 on the downside. Note
Seems to still be following this fractal, this would mean slow movement during this weekend. The 6600/6700 is a tough level now, so this could still just be a lower high again. I know we had some crazy weekends, but it's really best to stay out of thins market during weekends. We have had so many deceitful weekends in a row now, they always happen in the 6K area. Note
There was a forced drop on Bitmex and it's brothers (bitstamp/coinbase and now Kraken as well) where the difference between them and Finex and Binance went up to almost 40 points. That's quite exceptional! This is evidence that shows us that some (one) is playing around and is forcing moves. They use these exchanges because they have low volume compared to Finex and Binance. I have talked about these tricks for a long time now, unfortunately they are becoming worse. They force the active trader to, either scalp or only do big trades with wide stops to be able to ignore the noise. I have a special chart made by one of my members, it shows where the prices are of each exchange. The past 2 months, there is a standard gap between the Bitmex brothers and other top exchanges. I am now trying to figure out how the price of Kraken has developed the past month, because they have been added to the Bitmex mark price since 16 Sept as well. My guess is, that Kraken was average or like Finex and since that day it has been on the level of the bitmex brothers, confirming that without any huge fundamental changes in this market, it's just a toy being used by traders who have the funds to play around.
Anyway, they pushed the price down but Finex and Binance did not follow, eventually the price moved up again. Now the ones who shorted it, either push even even more or they will cut there losses and buy it all back again. We are just 40/60 points above that low, so it will be important to see what will happen next. if these Bitmex bears win, they will probably get it below the 6500 this time, if they loose they will probably push it above the 6600 and maybe towards the 6700 even.
This is no trading advice, this is just trying to figure out some clues from which we can benefit. But this is very complicated and they mix up their games allot!
Note
Seems a channel has been broken, still hanging around the support at 6580, if they can hold this, we will probably move upwards again. That would fit that picture of the fractal i posted as well. The daily candle would be bullish as well if they can keep it above the current level. Still the difference between the exchanges is a bit worrying.Note
The daily candle is getting more bullish now, if the bulls can push it to 6700, that would usually mean a buy signal. But still low volume, so that should increase if it wants to break the 6700Note
The bears fought the buy signal off just in time, i can see one big positive thing about this price action, we could start to have weekends, with not even looking at this market on Saturdays :) Up or down, i would say flip a coin. Pingpong to both sides all the time
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.