Bitcoin crash imminent target 9k & <5k

Dec 28, 2017

I've been saying this for some time, but bitcoin has certainly defied gravity. Its corrections are brief and shallow, and many have suggested that bitcoin can go to several million per coin in a few year's time.

Nevertheless, I expect the failure of another fork in less than 20 hours to trigger another round of selloff. This will likely lead to the weekly EMA to cross under the monthly EMA & confirm the Head & Shoulders pattern. Of course, it remains possible that the market makers will pump bitcoin so hard in the next 20 hours that it stays above 13k. Confirmation would require somewhere under 12k.

Not feeling like writing too much. I think the chart is self-explanatory. While experts here have identified numerous supports, I can't really see any long- to mid-term support above 10k.

As always with bubble pops, now the news is still generally positive. Once it pops, we'll hear bad news coming in.

Dec 28, 2017

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BTW, this is already on a log scale => so a straight trend line already means exponential growth. In the last few months bitcoin has been exp^2

Dec 28, 2017

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Just noticed that 50m new Tether has been printed. There'll be some pumping tonight, maybe it'll save bitcoin:

omniexplorer.info/lookupadd.aspx?address=1NTMakcgVwQpMdGxRQnFKyb3G1FAJysSfz

Dec 29, 2017

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Does $50 mil only last 10 hours?

If bitcoin falls say another 1k (that's 2k in a day) so soon after tether injection, I think 10k will certainly break.

Dec 29, 2017

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$100 Million new Tether!

omniexplorer.info/lookupadd.aspx?address=1NTMakcgVwQpMdGxRQnFKyb3G1FAJysSfz

Time to long! Bitcoin won't crash now.

Dec 30, 2017

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It appears that even tether thinks bitcoin is overpriced. It'll fall at least to 8k, it seems.

Dec 30, 2017

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Looking at wealth distribution, the wealthy have sold some, not much, some. I believe the price will recover to above 14k before more drops (and more recoveries). One steep drop can't allow the rich to sell all:

bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html

Dec 30, 2017

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I remember yesterday the wealth distribution of Top10/100 was ~ 5.08%/17.8x%. Now we see 4.95% Considering some of the biggest are exchanges, probably some big holders have been selling.

Dec 30, 2017

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OMG, this is brutal. There was a 1000 btc buy wall that only stood a couple of minutes.

I've been waiting for a bounce all day -> no bounce, just continual crash. I think there's a 50 50 chance that around 2 a.m. UTC there'll be a huge pump back up. But I'd rather take my profit (which has taken a huge haircut) before going to bed.

Next year when it hits bottom...

Dec 30, 2017

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Finally some recovery. Tonight will be critical as per my previous comment. There's a chance we'll see 14k.

I saw a 2000 btc buy wall at 12k. That's some commitment.

Dec 31, 2017

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14k! I think bitcoin can keep falling now.

Jan 1, 2018

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Happy New Year!

My new post on crypto: jlteng.com/economy-business/cryptocurrency/price-movements-on-crypto-exchanges/

Jan 1, 2018

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The coming days will be significant in confirming the H&S definitively. There're many ideas posted on this site that suggest "double bottom" or "triple bottom". The problem with that view is that while H&S hasn't been confirmed neither has these "bottoms" --- moreover, H&S is a broader mid-term pattern while these "bottoms" are visible only on hourly charts. One idea I just saw suggested that we're making "higher lows" -> the problem is that we're still dropping in the very-short-term channel and the low hasn't been reached.

In sum, of course it's possible for BTC to stop dropping, but that idea has less evidence than the contrary.

Btw, BTC's hashrate is around 1/3 TRILLION times that of BTG while performing exactly the same function. It is my personal opinion that this signifies how inefficient BTC's tech is (and with this much hash power it's the slowest?). If we're to believe that long-term investment should reflect the fundamentals => BTC has the absolute worst fundamental. At some point, the market will confine it to history books (already we see BTC dominance dropping from 65% earlier in December to now 36%).