Way too much alphabet soup
I've been deliberately quiet for 10-ish weeks now. Sometimes standing still is the best thing to do, if you don't know which road you're on.
But my inner bear is roaring again. We had a 3 wave correction, and then a whole new 5 wave down. It took two 1/2 sections of an Elliot Wave pattern to do it, but despite everyone's best efforts, the market refused to cooperate. Why? Dunno; but it did. The rejection at 10k (marked as point C on the chart) was the first indication that things were going to turn south. My previous clearing points were busted on the way up, so even I thought we were going up. Truth be told, I was hopefully enjoying the ride. 'Twas not to be.
And now we're right back in the same boat. Same chart as last time in April, extended out to today. If this IS the bottom, it's amazing how two 5 wave impulses ended at the same point of $6,800, +/-. I don't think we're through. I'm sticking to my gut and the TA behind it and calling for $4,800, but now it has a twist. We may see $2,900 again. If we fail at $4,800, I think we're taking another leg down.
The good news is, I contend we can't get much lower than $2,900. Why? That's the price point (last August) where the altcoin market EXPLODED, and the run to 20K BTC began. At $2,900, we'll be at the original price point of all but the oldest alts, and that's where I think we begin the ride all over.
So $4,800 is now my floor, w/ $2,900 being the basement. After wallowing around those levels for a while, we'll recover. But it will be a long, painful road to get back to our hysteria of December, and it might take a few years, not a few months, to recover. The good news is, such a pattern would give some real legitimacy to the crypto markets, and the price movement up woulda/shoulda/coulda become solid.
P.S. - this isn't FUD. Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt? That's when you don't know what's going to happen, and FUD is wrongly used All. The. Time. in cryptoworld. Predictions of downward price points, based on solid TA and/or FA, is anything but Fear, Uncertainty or Doubt. It might be wrong, but it's not FUD. Pining for upward trends is the FUD atm, that's the scary option.
But my inner bear is roaring again. We had a 3 wave correction, and then a whole new 5 wave down. It took two 1/2 sections of an Elliot Wave pattern to do it, but despite everyone's best efforts, the market refused to cooperate. Why? Dunno; but it did. The rejection at 10k (marked as point C on the chart) was the first indication that things were going to turn south. My previous clearing points were busted on the way up, so even I thought we were going up. Truth be told, I was hopefully enjoying the ride. 'Twas not to be.
And now we're right back in the same boat. Same chart as last time in April, extended out to today. If this IS the bottom, it's amazing how two 5 wave impulses ended at the same point of $6,800, +/-. I don't think we're through. I'm sticking to my gut and the TA behind it and calling for $4,800, but now it has a twist. We may see $2,900 again. If we fail at $4,800, I think we're taking another leg down.
The good news is, I contend we can't get much lower than $2,900. Why? That's the price point (last August) where the altcoin market EXPLODED, and the run to 20K BTC began. At $2,900, we'll be at the original price point of all but the oldest alts, and that's where I think we begin the ride all over.
So $4,800 is now my floor, w/ $2,900 being the basement. After wallowing around those levels for a while, we'll recover. But it will be a long, painful road to get back to our hysteria of December, and it might take a few years, not a few months, to recover. The good news is, such a pattern would give some real legitimacy to the crypto markets, and the price movement up woulda/shoulda/coulda become solid.
P.S. - this isn't FUD. Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt? That's when you don't know what's going to happen, and FUD is wrongly used All. The. Time. in cryptoworld. Predictions of downward price points, based on solid TA and/or FA, is anything but Fear, Uncertainty or Doubt. It might be wrong, but it's not FUD. Pining for upward trends is the FUD atm, that's the scary option.
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