Why is there no direction in the price of the Bitcoin?
Updated
Acutally, so many outside influences make it difficult to predict which way the price of Bitcoin will go. Bulls and bears keep the price well in a balance and it remains inside a narrow bandwidth with very low volumes. Let us try to see the whole picture. I list here the main fundamentals and present a chart, which shows the partly interfering trends and signals.
What are the fundamentals?
• News from South Korea about banning cryptocurrency trading in the future.
• News from China about banning cryptocurrency mining and verification.
• Right now, China hosts 80% of the computer capacity for the Bitcoin blockchain. Will operation of the Bitcoin come to a temporarily halt? Will investors lose Bitcoins? What about the mining contracts? How long will it take to replace this huge computer capacity?
• News from USA that they will sell seized Bitcoins worth over 300 million US-Dollars.
• News from Bulgaria that they will sell seized Bitcoins worth 3.5 billion US-Dollars.
• Because of the newly implemented high transaction fees, will Bitcoin survive as a payment coin?
What can we read in the chart?
• There is a red dashed line at 14129. Below that line, the scenario is bearish and above that line, the scenario is bullish.
• There is a triangle, drawn in dark-blue color. Bitcoin is actually at point 4. From there, it should continue in direction of point 5 and there, it should outbreak on the upper side of the triangle.
• However, we see that the price moves in direction of point 4 again instead of point 5. Will there be a downside breakout today? In the last few weeks, we experienced already enough downside breakouts.
• Since January 7, 2018, the value of the Bitcoin moves down inside a channel with blue dotted borderlines.
• On the same time, it is also within a sideward channel build by the red dashed line and the yellow dashed line.
It is not very likely that we will see a decisive move in either direction. I expect over the weekend low volumes and the price oscillating inside the square that is built by the blue downward channel and the sideward channel between the red and the yellow line.
However, we have to be prepared for a downward outbreak, which would result in a free fall down to the level of 5568. This could happen if some traders would start selling in panic in a market with low volumes. In this case, use the opportunity for buying cheap Bitcoins.
What is the best strategy in such a quiet and boring market?
Two subjects are becoming important in such a quiet market:
• Market Corrections
• Portfolio Erosion
Goldbug1 has written a great article about both subjects. I recommend reading it. Personally, I learned important things about how to trade such a difficult market. It is really worth reading about his strategies. Please click on the chart below for reading it.
I wish you good luck, happy trading and a great weekend.
Luckyhelper
What are the fundamentals?
• News from South Korea about banning cryptocurrency trading in the future.
• News from China about banning cryptocurrency mining and verification.
• Right now, China hosts 80% of the computer capacity for the Bitcoin blockchain. Will operation of the Bitcoin come to a temporarily halt? Will investors lose Bitcoins? What about the mining contracts? How long will it take to replace this huge computer capacity?
• News from USA that they will sell seized Bitcoins worth over 300 million US-Dollars.
• News from Bulgaria that they will sell seized Bitcoins worth 3.5 billion US-Dollars.
• Because of the newly implemented high transaction fees, will Bitcoin survive as a payment coin?
What can we read in the chart?
• There is a red dashed line at 14129. Below that line, the scenario is bearish and above that line, the scenario is bullish.
• There is a triangle, drawn in dark-blue color. Bitcoin is actually at point 4. From there, it should continue in direction of point 5 and there, it should outbreak on the upper side of the triangle.
• However, we see that the price moves in direction of point 4 again instead of point 5. Will there be a downside breakout today? In the last few weeks, we experienced already enough downside breakouts.
• Since January 7, 2018, the value of the Bitcoin moves down inside a channel with blue dotted borderlines.
• On the same time, it is also within a sideward channel build by the red dashed line and the yellow dashed line.
It is not very likely that we will see a decisive move in either direction. I expect over the weekend low volumes and the price oscillating inside the square that is built by the blue downward channel and the sideward channel between the red and the yellow line.
However, we have to be prepared for a downward outbreak, which would result in a free fall down to the level of 5568. This could happen if some traders would start selling in panic in a market with low volumes. In this case, use the opportunity for buying cheap Bitcoins.
What is the best strategy in such a quiet and boring market?
Two subjects are becoming important in such a quiet market:
• Market Corrections
• Portfolio Erosion
Goldbug1 has written a great article about both subjects. I recommend reading it. Personally, I learned important things about how to trade such a difficult market. It is really worth reading about his strategies. Please click on the chart below for reading it.
I wish you good luck, happy trading and a great weekend.
Luckyhelper
Note
It is Sunday evening in Switzerland. As predicted, BTCUSD stayed inside that square over the weekend. The breakout out of the down-channel (between the two blue dotted lines) means that the bear-trend became much weaker. As long as BTCUSD does not significantly breakout of the triangle to the downside, we can admit that there will be a breakout on the upper side during the next ten days. Right now, the downside of the triangle is tested. I will buy BTC at 17080 once the new uptrend is confirmed. The target of the upmove is 22500 and 24000.
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