Updated

Wedge in wedge fractal analysis

Hello fellow gamblers!

My GF is staring at my screen right now and if I don't finish this soon, she is gonna dump me. I wanted to keep my promise of posting this idea after the small wedge breakout/down. Tune in for more updates.

Safe trading :)

/:D

Don't forget to like if u like it!

Note: zoom in the chart by dragging the time and price scale. Double click for auto scale.

My previous update:

"I am working on a new idea. Just wanted to show u where I am so far. To avoid too many "if"s, I am waiting for the wedge break out or break down so that I can place the second wedge target or H&S target on the chart.

Bullish signals:
- Many regular and hidden divergences on RSI and MACD on different TFs
- Falling wedge
- Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ), stronk supports still holding

Bearish signals:
- Market sentiment
- Bulls failure to break 10k leading to a double top
- Having all MAs above us
- Scary 2014 fractal

Overall, market is more bearish than bullish. If the small wedge breaks out, there is no guarantee for breaking the bigger wedge. Even if the big wedge breaks out it can fail to reach its target and downtrend can continue. In general, I don't expect momentum to increase on bullish side until we miraculously break 10k (miracles happen in Crypto as it did on Apr 12th), but if price closes below 7.7k on 4h and especially daily, I expect bearish momentum to increase. We might even see a parabolic crash like in early Feb.

Crucial moments for Cyrpto my friends,like April triangle. Moon or doom will be decided soon."
Image version:

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Some important levels:
0.618 Fib retrace is important to hold or BTC ded. For April-May rally, it's sitting in the worst possible place. A potential H&S neckline around 782x. ATM, we have a good distance away from it so no need to worry now.

For March 25 2017 to ATH rally, it's around 818x, the bottom of the yellow zone.
For Feb rally (6k to 12k), it's around 821x, top of the yellow zone.
Also, Point of Control for the last couple of months are in the yellow zone. PoC creates a gravitational force and to escape from it, a huge momentum is needed.
See the chart from other Fib levels.

It seems that some 250M Tether is printed. That might have been related with small wedge breakout. I have no evidence to prove it. But, BTC was having a hard time breaking out of the wedge until those Tether got printed. AFAI remember, last Tether print did not have any lasting effect on BTC price rise. I went long when I heard about this news.

For now, we got rejected at 0.618 retrace of the recent drop (orange lines). The sell vol was way more than the pump vol. We might see some fight for breaking it.

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A closeup look at Fib levels. See the magic of Fibs.

BTW, @euromotives is a Fib master. I am still learning the way he does it. I strongly recommend his educational materials on Fibs, Elliot Wave, Pivots and all else.

If we go up, watch out for big wedge's top line. It can act as a strong resistance; unless it is attacked with a strong force it won't break.

As I am writing, bulls are going for it again.

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Woohoo, we hit the downtrend line at the exact point I have drawn in the chart!

This pump's buy vol was massive partly because of short squeeze (1k). 250M Tether has prolly had some magical effect as well.

At this point, I don't know if we will break the downtrend line or not. It is broken on Bfx but not on Bitstamp, the one I used to draw this chart. Alts r looking good and that's a good sign for BTC as well.

One difference between March wedge and now is that the target of the small wedge resides outside the bigger wedge. So the small wedge can help in breaking out of the big wedge. Kind of a domino/snowball effect.

BTW, I forgot to draw a potential small right shoulder inside the big wedge. Just keep that in mind as a scenario. I hope we break the big wedge soon and put that scenario aside forever :D

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A quick update on Bitfinex trades since 11:45 am.
107792 BTC bought
11537 BTC sold
Net: 757 BTC sold
Price up close to 1%
Most buys happened in a short span of time during the pump after 11:45. Around 1k of of buys were due to short squeeze.

Smells fishy! Stay alert.

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Correction: 10779 BTC bought

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My nose seem to be working good. That was a 100 point drop for now. Here is a closeup look at the chart. Local uptrend is acting as a res for now. I closed half positions before the drop. Don't know what's coming next TBH.

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So, the little wedge helped the bigger wedge to break out as I was hoping it would. I've adjusted some of the targets because it depends on where the wedge breaks out. New Fibs added that I expect them to work well. They are also potential support/resistance and reversal levels. You can use them to take partial profits or closing longs and opening shorts.

The big wedge breakout was with conviction. Volume was massive and shorts contribution to the buy orders where insignificant. This is a good sign and would help us to reach at least our first target at 8670 without too much struggle.

Couple of points:
- Bitcoin is outperforming some of the alts. This is not a good sign in general. Read my half-baked theory about Cypto manipulation as to why.
- I have moved the green plane as well. I think above 0.618, give a good chance for breaking the unbroken 10k.

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Since my last update, alts caught up to BTC and many r now outperforming it. So what I said in previous update is not valid anymore.

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There is a clear bearish divergence in small TFs. Expect a pullback. My targets are 848x and 836x on Bitfinex.

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We reached the 1st pullback target. Not sure if we will reach the next 1 or not.
We have an inverse H&S with confirmed breakout. Considering it's success rate in markets its target is 8730. It is 60 points above the small wedge's target.
Aside from Fibs here r resistances and supports that I can think of for today.
Resistances:
- 200 EMA @88754
- 20 EMA @8642
- Weekly resistance: 8963
Supports:
- We have the new weekly pivot @8444. We just pierced it. It will be bullish if we don't close below it.
- 50 MA daily which provided good support recently (until it broke) is @8411
- Previous local uptrend line which is changing its role as support and resistance

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Correction: 200 EMA @8754

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I am gonna cheat a bit here and say that we reached the target of the small falling wedge. The original target was 8626 on the interactive chart and we reached 864x on Bfx.

The buy volume on the last wave was very good. Bfx pushed the price up but others didn't follow. Perhaps huge profit taking going on or maybe a part of the buy order was wash-trading. We should have easily reached 8.7k with that volume.

If we go down a bit from here, a small H&S will be developed. It doesn't have any value until it is developed and breaks out. We also have something like a small rising wedge (black lines) but could also be a rising channel so I don't know what to make of it. 58% of the time, it breaks downward. In BTC, I think that probability is much higher.

Most of the alts are not making local higher highs and that reminds me of phase 3 according to my "half-baked theory about Crypto manipulation". If you r a new follower and interested in tinfoil theories, u can check it out in my previous ideas.

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On Bitstamp, there is no rising wedge. It's only on Bitfinex.

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Forgot to mention that we have a bearish divergence on 1h.

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We reached the pullback target I mentioned yesterday. The H&S in previous post played out. It hasn't reached its target yet. Not sure if it will or not. At this point we r sitting on 0.382 retrace of the recent mini rally. Looks like we r in a mini bear flag. Back-testing the big wedge is also a possibility. Don't forget the scenarios I laid out in the original post. I exited after the rejection. Staying flat waiting for a clear signal.

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Small H&S target reached and went below it only by $6. Then we had a 130 points bounce and got rejected at weekly pivot. Weekly pivot is important to set the direction of the market. So there was a huge fight for it on Bitfinex. You might have missed it. I have the numbers for you in the chart below. Our temporary support is 0.382 of the recent rally at 8344. Now the market is in the hands of the whales and it is totally unpredictable. We have something like an evening star pattern on 12h. That's a bearish pattern. On the other hand, we have some unmet targets on our Inv H&S and the big wedge. As I wrote in my original idea, we might not reach those targets.

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I have reported evening/morning star candle pattern couple of times before and it worked in all cases. It seems to be a reliable candle pattern. We also have hidden bearish divergence on major time frames up to 12h on both MACD and RSI. I find regular divergence more reliable than hidden divergence.

PS: I am not experienced in trading or in TA. That's why I usually avoid predicting. Instead, I try to report the patterns I detect. It is up to you to decide how you want to weight them. I won't be doing prediction until I learn more TA knowledge and experience.

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I see H&S everywhere and that's why I hate them.

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That right shoulder worked perfectly. Not a trade advice. We r in a strong support region.

I posted this on May 4th if you remember it. Now it is perfectly aligned. Again, not a trade advice. As you can see, it has deviated from it couple of times.

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Strictly not a trade advice!
We just touched the potential neckline and now the pattern is complete. We r still above 0.618 of the April-May rally. Some ppl told me before that this H&S is not correct technically. Pls let me know what u think about validity of the pattern. Also, I adjusted the target in my previous updates to 6812. We have a uptrend line connecting Feb low to April low. If we go below 7.8k, that could be a potential target.

Safe trading :)

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We have a new falling wedge structure. Will update u later about it's breakout possibility in a new idea.

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We r now sitting on 0.618 of Apr-May rally. It's a potential reversal zone. I see divergence on some TFs on MACD and some other oscillators. So stay alert. Might be a good spot to take partial profit on your shorts if u r a conservative trader. BTC looks really weak as I am writing but as u know this market is emotional and impulsive. If we see a bounce here, I don't expect it to be strong enough to break the new wedge's top line.

PS: If u don't want me to update frequently, pls write me in the comment. For more like button would work best!

I used to think my ideas don't get enough likes. I checked like/view ratios on TV idea board and it seems my ideas have one of the highest ratios. So I want to thank those of u who give a like and leave comment. I also got my first troll comment on my latest idea and I am really happy about it. I was getting depressed for being ignored by the trolls :D

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- 4h candle has more than 2 hours to close but so far it is looking like a morning star. It doesn't bear any weight until it is closed.
- 7.8k support that I've been talking about for a long time is holding for now. If u play the interactive chart, u'll c that we had a mini bounce off of it
- If bulls don't push the market up now (which they r not trying hard) and if we close the daily below this major support line, bearish momentum is gonna increase. Sorry for repeating this but this is the last stronghold not only for BTC but also the whole Crypto. Next Crypto winter would be worse than the previous one.
- Excluding MAs, here are the main support and resistance lines. I tried to keep all Fib lines so you can see confluence of the lines. Purple and orange fib lines need to be updated if we make lower lows. If we go up from here, the yellow region would act as a strong resistance and this time it won't be easy to go above it. Up is a tested territory and a failed one. Only way for bulls to turn around this sinking ship is by defending this last stronghold until bearish momentum cools down and then start making local higher highs. If u want to go long and missed an entry point, be patient. We will most likely re-test this support at least one more time. Overall, long is a counter trend IMHO. Assuming that market is moving organically, which it looks like so, we will most likely continue the downtrend. I cannot predict sudden green spikes that market makers paint on the chart.

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The above chart is Bitstamp chart. I added it on top of Bitfinex chart to find the best lines. There too much discrepancy between Bitfinex and other exchanges since 10k fall.

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Re "Assuming that market is moving organically, which it looks like so, we will most likely continue the downtrend." This is a med term statement. We might see bounces or sideways before downtrend continuation.

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Crypto Winter is here my friends. Be careful trading against the trend. Game is over for bulls. 7800 could stop only 2 4h candles and that shows how weak the market is.
We are now on the second weekly support. Next support is 722x.

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Here I have the major support in daily and 4h chart. Now sitting on weekly support and -0.382 extension of recent drop.

Strongest support: the green uptrend line should provide a decent bounce.
Normal support: Fib 0.782 at 722x

Now sitting on weekly support and -0.382 extension of recent drop.

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If we bounce from here, all the previous supports are gonna act as resistance.

I wrote previously about weekly pivot and its importance for setting the market direction. After bulls lost the fight to break it (it was an important fight, check above to see the numbers), the direction was to from Pivot to supports. We broke the first weekly support and reached the second one. Pierced it and bounced. Second support is oversold indicator confirmed by RSI oversold. Traders take profit in second support hence we usually see an automatic rally there. But don't get fooled. Market is extremely bearish and I don't see it going bullish yet. We might see minor bounces to reset RSI a bit. I will add to my shorts at 7.8k, 8k, 8.2k if we bounce but won't go long. It's counter trend. Only time I would consider going long is near green uptrend line. It's a confluence of a lot of supports lines including 3rd weekly support @704x.

PS: This is what I am doing. If u get rekt following me, don't curse me. If u disagree, pls let me know in the comment, I might be missing something here.

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Some of you guys r prolly rekt. I feel sorry for your loss. Bulls r not going to try to reverse the market without developing a good story. This rally, as I have shown in my previous Fractal TA, was a bull trap. Breaking below 0.618 signals the failure of a rally. There is only 15% chance of up trend continuation after 0.618 breaks. After such a rally fails, only a major support can stop the downtrend. One major support is the base of the giant triangle that u might have already seen. It's a good enough story to convince some bulls to fight back. It should take us back to 0.618 around 7.8k to 8k depending on how u draw your Fibs. Another Major support is previous major low at 6.5k. Some of you might think 6k is a major support but IMHO it is not. It means that we r going lower than previous major low and that is not bullish enough to stop the downtrend. If we reverse the downtrend, the highest I can think of is the top of the giant triangle. I will definitely look for adding to my shorts at 0.618.

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Forgot to post the triangle

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On Bitfinex, we broke above and below the wedge couple of times but we are back inside of it. The most unpredictable and weird wedge I have seen. There are huge buy wall on Bitfinex. All the previous ones broke down. I am not sure if this one would break. We are now near a very strong support. I am staying flat. Still waiting for a clear change in market mood.

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H&S target reached :D

cI8DH

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cI8DH

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