Bitcoin and Bitfinex game changer or just a bump in the road
Updated
As if the crypto market did not endure enough already past year, it gets a blow like this from our 'favorite' exchange Bitfinex. As always a lot of stories going around making the market nervous again, because as always in crypto, nobody can say 100% how bad and how real it all is again. Bitfinex has been a shady exchange for a long time, so this news is not helping them at all. Maybe for the long term its even better that it disappears, together with it's girlfriend Tether. They both had their grip of uncertainty on the market for too long already.
Had quite the drop yesterday of around 500 points, but since it bounced up from 4950 to 5150 at first and eventually even reaching 5280, it doesn't look like the panic is extreme. Normally forming a bear flag after a drop like this is something normal, but real panic we should have seen it make another drop withing a few hours after the first drop.
To make it more complicated, Tether has dropped quite a bit as well yesterday. Half year ago, when it was more extreme, the crypto market jumped up because there was no other option than moving away from tether, than to jump into crypto and move the funds from an exchange. So this will likely have influence again on the current price movement, but cant say if it's small or big.
Second factor is, i saw some big buys yesterday at the low which looked like support buying. As mentioned in my last updates, OI increased a lot yesterday after the dump. Have not seen it increase this fast after a drop like this, ever actually. It feels like support buying, either to hold the market mid-term or purely short term, so these people can close their longs at 5K prices before another big dump happens.
What also sticks out a bit, alts have been extremely weak past week, but yesterday's dump many alts in btc pairs were even up, so not really confirming the panic there also.
Normally, with the bounce we had to 5150 a bear flag would still be normal, but the touch of 5280, would put the bear flag off the table. But because of the Tether drop, as explained above, it might be noise that it reached 5280, so keeping the bear flag 100% alive. News like this can be a game changer, no TA or whatever that can for see this (unless some people knew this upfront and were already distributing past days which than shows in TA). So for now, only real guideline i have, is the key level around 5300. If that one breaks, think the panic is over and we might even be able to look up again. But this move up can not happen because of a Tether panic pump, because that would make it meaningless again.
We can see the 5000/4950 has held once again as a support, making it very likely to be a big neckline now. So if that one breaks, things could turn really ugly. Now the 4800/4700 was a big support level, maybe even THE key level for this rally past 2 months. But because of this Bitfinex news, don't know if that level will have any value now.
Short term, the drop from the 5280 to current price, feels a bit controlled. In other words, like someone is support/accumulating. So i think for the short term, this channel (with some margin) might be a good guideline to follow for the next step. So maybe these people are trying to do something like this, creating a Bart move. But make no mistake, a short squeeze in this spot, is not bullish so very likely will just be short term. In my previous analysis i talked about sell volume being low past weeks, which would be a bullish sign as long as it stayed low. But yesterday's drop had changed that now. Making things more dangerous now.
So a short squeeze through 5300 will very likely just be a temp move. A normal good volume break of 5300 would be real and we might be able to leave this behind us. Anything below 5300, makes it very likely to see this market make another big drop and maybe even resume the bear trend. If we see another drop, the size and the volume of that one will very likely gives us that answer. If we see the market really tank, say drop another 500+ points with high volume, we really need to consider that we might see new 2019 lows.
Previous analysis:
Had quite the drop yesterday of around 500 points, but since it bounced up from 4950 to 5150 at first and eventually even reaching 5280, it doesn't look like the panic is extreme. Normally forming a bear flag after a drop like this is something normal, but real panic we should have seen it make another drop withing a few hours after the first drop.
To make it more complicated, Tether has dropped quite a bit as well yesterday. Half year ago, when it was more extreme, the crypto market jumped up because there was no other option than moving away from tether, than to jump into crypto and move the funds from an exchange. So this will likely have influence again on the current price movement, but cant say if it's small or big.
Second factor is, i saw some big buys yesterday at the low which looked like support buying. As mentioned in my last updates, OI increased a lot yesterday after the dump. Have not seen it increase this fast after a drop like this, ever actually. It feels like support buying, either to hold the market mid-term or purely short term, so these people can close their longs at 5K prices before another big dump happens.
What also sticks out a bit, alts have been extremely weak past week, but yesterday's dump many alts in btc pairs were even up, so not really confirming the panic there also.
Normally, with the bounce we had to 5150 a bear flag would still be normal, but the touch of 5280, would put the bear flag off the table. But because of the Tether drop, as explained above, it might be noise that it reached 5280, so keeping the bear flag 100% alive. News like this can be a game changer, no TA or whatever that can for see this (unless some people knew this upfront and were already distributing past days which than shows in TA). So for now, only real guideline i have, is the key level around 5300. If that one breaks, think the panic is over and we might even be able to look up again. But this move up can not happen because of a Tether panic pump, because that would make it meaningless again.
We can see the 5000/4950 has held once again as a support, making it very likely to be a big neckline now. So if that one breaks, things could turn really ugly. Now the 4800/4700 was a big support level, maybe even THE key level for this rally past 2 months. But because of this Bitfinex news, don't know if that level will have any value now.
Short term, the drop from the 5280 to current price, feels a bit controlled. In other words, like someone is support/accumulating. So i think for the short term, this channel (with some margin) might be a good guideline to follow for the next step. So maybe these people are trying to do something like this, creating a Bart move. But make no mistake, a short squeeze in this spot, is not bullish so very likely will just be short term. In my previous analysis i talked about sell volume being low past weeks, which would be a bullish sign as long as it stayed low. But yesterday's drop had changed that now. Making things more dangerous now.
So a short squeeze through 5300 will very likely just be a temp move. A normal good volume break of 5300 would be real and we might be able to leave this behind us. Anything below 5300, makes it very likely to see this market make another big drop and maybe even resume the bear trend. If we see another drop, the size and the volume of that one will very likely gives us that answer. If we see the market really tank, say drop another 500+ points with high volume, we really need to consider that we might see new 2019 lows.
Previous analysis:
Note
There is really no denying here that alts are showing signs of a low formation. The market is still at a bad and dangerous spot, with the whole Bitfinex and Tether issues. But alts held their ground much better with this panic drop than the drops from the past week or 3 even. This can be a sign of exhaustion of the bears on these time frames. Obviously when Bitcoin dumps again, the this can all change in a blink of an eye. But if we see Bitcoin hanging above the 5050/5100 this weekend and if alts start to grow a little bit during the consolidation, it might all be over already. So i expect nothing real to happen this weekend, at least not on the upside. A drop can happen at any moment. But a real move up, not likely. So i think it's safest for bulls to wait the whole weekend to see if things improve or not, Bears are in favor short term at least.Note
Still not a lot has changed, but alts are starting to grow a little bit more. Think it's safe to say, that it's not a wedge but more likely a triangle (i posted about it in my public channel, forgot to update it here). ETH just broke it's small resistance, same as the 5180ish f Bitcoin. So maybe BTC will follow. Now if this happens, depending on how the push up will be, we can judge if the bear flag is still in play or not. 5300ish is still a key level here.
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