BTC DAILY UPDATE (day 159)

Previous analysis/position: Recognized the potential short sale entry on the daily cloud and urged caution due to lack of a bearisk TK’ cross, being close to major support at $6,800 as well as the daily TD’ Sequential being on a red 5. Remain short ETH from $450.
Patterns: 1h bear flag
Horizontal support and resistance: Strong S: $6,800 - $6,900 | Weak R: $7,050 | Strong R: $7,250 - $7,500
BTCUSDSHORTS: Broke through down trend that has lasted since June 12th
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0043%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -7.21% | 26 = -5.83% | both angling down
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = currently acting as support | 128 = -8% and will be apart of $7,500 resistance cluster.
FIB’s: 0.236 = $5,920 | 0.382 = $8,496
Candlestick analysis: Bearish spinning top on daily. Bearish marubozu on the weekly.
Ichimoku Cloud: Tenkan-Sen is diverging from the Kijun-Sen when I would expect to see convergence then a cross. 12h cloud is bullish and is acting as support.
TD’ Sequential: Daily R-6
Visible Range: Point of control over last 24h = $6,996 | POC over last 5d = $7,560 | POC over last month = $7,435
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +/- 0 | 24h = +/- 0 | 1w = -15.09% | 2w = -9.86% | 1m = +5.63%
Bollinger Bands: Testing bottom of daily band as top band angles down. Testing MA on 3d. Back below MA on weekly.
Trendline: N/A
Daily Trend: Sell off then chop
Fractals: DOWN = $6,082 | UP = $8,256
On Balance Volume: Back down to where we were when the price was at $6,000
ADX: Daily ADX is angling down and threatening to cross below 25. Below that we have ranged for long enough and that the price will start moving before that happens. +DI got rejected by the -DI on the weekly.
Chaikin Money Flow: Just broke resistance on weekly and attempting to create a higher low. Pulling back hard on the daily.
RSI (30 setting): < 50 on daily and weekly
Stoch: Oversold on daily, plenty of room to fall on 3d. Weekly still hasn’t turned around.

Summary: The most important factor to me right now is how far we have fallen in the last week and how close we are to significant horizontal support. The price is down $1,250 or 15.21% since last Sunday and $6,800 is expected to be a strong area of support. A bounce is expected but it is not something I would bet on. Instead be prepared to sell it. There will be very strong resistance from $7,500 - $7,750 and that could potentially provide a great selling opportunity.

The 50 MA is currently acting as support while the 128 MA establishes itself as resistance. It would be reasonable for the price to range for a few weeks while that those moving averages converge.

I am still short ETH and have not covered any of that position. I am expecting things to get quickly get very bloody once/if $400 support breaks down. Click here for that analysis.