Bitcoin Mid to Long-term outlook
Updated
To make it clear right away: Even though the analysis says "long", this is not a long setup & I would recommend against taking a long at resistance here. Do your own analysis and execute your own proven entry technique if you wish to get long exposure.
Now onto the charts:
First off, the 1W as seen in the two charts above:
- range between 3k & 20k
- 2018 lows/accumulation range tested with clear rejection during March COVID fuelled selloff
- trading above/at pre-COVID levels (watch SPX)
- important downtrend line from 2019 highs clearly broken
- finding support on .618 & 10k level within OTE
- volume showing no signs of distribution compared to march stopping volume
- might respect the downtrend line connecting 2017 & 2019 highs while putting in a higher low
- Keltner Channels on the 1W show price spending more time above the median since the 2018 bottom.
- The March COVID selloff was met with clear rejection away from bottom band
- recently price reached the upper band again, favoring bullish continuation as long as we can maintain a relatively tight consolidation at current levels
In summary pending an EOW reversal, this looks good for another run towards 12.5-13k in the short term (short term referring to 1W candles nonetheless). Projection beyond 10k seems weak compared to the previous swing off the March lows, but we're grinding through strong resistance (OTE of 20k to 3k drop, 10k level was resistance almost for a year). A strong volatility-adjusted move through and close beyond 13k on the 1W would look very promising for the mid to long-term.
Taking a very broad look at the multi-year perspective through the 1M chart (close only) we're looking solid and on time for re-accumulation nearing its completion and further price projection beyond 20k.
Looking at the 1D we can see the supply side dynamics of mining efficiency have played out pretty much exactly as anticipated over the 3 months post-halving, both in terms of price drifting upwards in light of decreased selling pressure (further decreasing selling pressure as miners need to sell fewer coins to cover their expenses), as well as time spent largely sideways as time is needed to flush inefficient miners from the network before alleviating selling pressure sufficiently for more substantial upside.
All in all IMO so far we're looking to be on track for another post-halving price discovery bubble for BTCUSD, until proven otherwise. Patience is required as this takes place over many weeks and months. The biggest risk/concern for me is what might happen if the floor falls out underneath the stock/legacy market due to further COVID shenanigans, but until that happens further action between 10k and 11k will be significant in giving us hints about near-term market direction. A clear downward extension & acceptance beneath the recent 9.8k lows would be a big warning shot for bullish assumptions.
Now onto the charts:
First off, the 1W as seen in the two charts above:
- range between 3k & 20k
- 2018 lows/accumulation range tested with clear rejection during March COVID fuelled selloff
- trading above/at pre-COVID levels (watch SPX)
- important downtrend line from 2019 highs clearly broken
- finding support on .618 & 10k level within OTE
- volume showing no signs of distribution compared to march stopping volume
- might respect the downtrend line connecting 2017 & 2019 highs while putting in a higher low
- Keltner Channels on the 1W show price spending more time above the median since the 2018 bottom.
- The March COVID selloff was met with clear rejection away from bottom band
- recently price reached the upper band again, favoring bullish continuation as long as we can maintain a relatively tight consolidation at current levels
In summary pending an EOW reversal, this looks good for another run towards 12.5-13k in the short term (short term referring to 1W candles nonetheless). Projection beyond 10k seems weak compared to the previous swing off the March lows, but we're grinding through strong resistance (OTE of 20k to 3k drop, 10k level was resistance almost for a year). A strong volatility-adjusted move through and close beyond 13k on the 1W would look very promising for the mid to long-term.
Taking a very broad look at the multi-year perspective through the 1M chart (close only) we're looking solid and on time for re-accumulation nearing its completion and further price projection beyond 20k.
Looking at the 1D we can see the supply side dynamics of mining efficiency have played out pretty much exactly as anticipated over the 3 months post-halving, both in terms of price drifting upwards in light of decreased selling pressure (further decreasing selling pressure as miners need to sell fewer coins to cover their expenses), as well as time spent largely sideways as time is needed to flush inefficient miners from the network before alleviating selling pressure sufficiently for more substantial upside.
All in all IMO so far we're looking to be on track for another post-halving price discovery bubble for BTCUSD, until proven otherwise. Patience is required as this takes place over many weeks and months. The biggest risk/concern for me is what might happen if the floor falls out underneath the stock/legacy market due to further COVID shenanigans, but until that happens further action between 10k and 11k will be significant in giving us hints about near-term market direction. A clear downward extension & acceptance beneath the recent 9.8k lows would be a big warning shot for bullish assumptions.
Note
Tight consolidation with push towards/beyond 13k happened as described and hoped for. Currently consolidating at 13k (> 0.786 / top of OTE) is promising and BTC is showing relative strength compared to stock indices. While I wouldn't be too surprised by a dump towards 12k area (prior resistance), it would also be classic BTC to not give people that preferred long entry at this point.
So far I'd say we're looking good, 20k is next (big picture)
Note
What a run so far! 🚀Update:
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