BTC/USD Swing Trade Analysis - Head and Shoulders?
Once again I was right. The cup with handle (pink) even ended right where I finished my drawing!
We've been on a bit of a roller-coaster since then, so will we dip further or will be start moving up again?
From a pattern perspective, it looks like we are forming a Head and Shoulders (in orange).
However, when we look at the indicators, it is a different story.
The RSI is around 50%, which means that the price of BTC is now consolidating at the current level of ~54k-56k. The market thinks that this number is neither overpriced nor underpriced. So, if you are in for the long-ish swing trade (a few days or even a week) I'd say stay calm: even if there is a dip, it will be back to ~55k as this is the new value. On the other hand, if you are working with a shorter swing trade of a day or so (or maybe even day trading), pay close attention to the market because the dip might be your only chance of buying it before we move up again.
Now looking at the MACD, it does show signs of a negative trend. Keep in mind that we are still in bull territory (lines way, way above zero) so even if there is a dip, the long-term tendency is for the value to go up. As I've said before, it all depends on your goals. If you are looking for a short-term swing or day trade, (based on the MACD alone) this is a good time to sell and wait for the end of this dip to buy again. If you are looking for a longer-term swing of a few days or even a week, this will just be a minor blip in the overall upward movement.
The other important indicator to look is volume. And here we see that the volume is still small, but not the smallest its been. So there is some activity, but for the most part traders are still waiting to see what will happen. That means that the volume slightly confirms the other trends, but not by a lot.
Looking at the shorter-term charts, they are all showing a recovery on the MACD and a consolidation on the RSI. So the short-term tendency is still for the price to consolidate.
Summary/TLDR:
Let's summarize everything now:
1) We have 3 indications that the price will consolidate or stay flat
2) We have 2 indications that the price will go down
In conclusion: we are in for a consolidation around ~55k.
Disclaimer:
Nothing here is investment or financial advice. Cryptocurrency is very risky. Please only invest what you can afford to lose.
We've been on a bit of a roller-coaster since then, so will we dip further or will be start moving up again?
From a pattern perspective, it looks like we are forming a Head and Shoulders (in orange).
However, when we look at the indicators, it is a different story.
The RSI is around 50%, which means that the price of BTC is now consolidating at the current level of ~54k-56k. The market thinks that this number is neither overpriced nor underpriced. So, if you are in for the long-ish swing trade (a few days or even a week) I'd say stay calm: even if there is a dip, it will be back to ~55k as this is the new value. On the other hand, if you are working with a shorter swing trade of a day or so (or maybe even day trading), pay close attention to the market because the dip might be your only chance of buying it before we move up again.
Now looking at the MACD, it does show signs of a negative trend. Keep in mind that we are still in bull territory (lines way, way above zero) so even if there is a dip, the long-term tendency is for the value to go up. As I've said before, it all depends on your goals. If you are looking for a short-term swing or day trade, (based on the MACD alone) this is a good time to sell and wait for the end of this dip to buy again. If you are looking for a longer-term swing of a few days or even a week, this will just be a minor blip in the overall upward movement.
The other important indicator to look is volume. And here we see that the volume is still small, but not the smallest its been. So there is some activity, but for the most part traders are still waiting to see what will happen. That means that the volume slightly confirms the other trends, but not by a lot.
Looking at the shorter-term charts, they are all showing a recovery on the MACD and a consolidation on the RSI. So the short-term tendency is still for the price to consolidate.
Summary/TLDR:
Let's summarize everything now:
1) We have 3 indications that the price will consolidate or stay flat
2) We have 2 indications that the price will go down
In conclusion: we are in for a consolidation around ~55k.
Disclaimer:
Nothing here is investment or financial advice. Cryptocurrency is very risky. Please only invest what you can afford to lose.
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