Stop going long BTC!market is DEAD
Hi guys. I have made my own trading view account, after more than a year of trading BTC. I have lost so much money in the past, studied, wondered why, tried to figure out my own trading plan. after losing so much cash i learned my principle problem. 'going long on altcoins or btc when market is dead'. i have earned a lot at bull runs, i have gave away(forced philanthropy) most of them at bear markets. after i figured my problem, i rebounded right on course. right now my winning percentage is pretty high, and i humbly will develop this.
today, we are seeing the same pattern. "btc going up, so should i buy?" fomo buys may start after this small 6.9->7.1k 200 dollar bounce!
people say, we are going to 9k, 10k! no, no, no. that is absolutely not on the table. because, the market trend is now BEARISH, and BEARISH will never become BULLISH until a strong confirmation. right now, check how the weekly candle closed. a big, fat, bearish engulfing candle that indicates "we are going down, down!". if anybody has little knowledge, they will never go long! even though, i get questions "should i go long, the coins are cheap" i say no! but sadly, people absolutely wouldn't listen.
let me tell you what is different in bear market, and bull market.
see the below chart. this is the chart that started the bull run at 6k.
as you can see, what starts a bull is a clear bull divergence(at 6k area in mid july). after that price goes up. it goes up, has little difficulties in sideways, starts to risk bear div on indicators, BUT! at the end it always make a higher high, and keeps the RIS level higher. RSI, this indicator is a tricky one, but the best indicator than ANY indicator to see where the market goes. RSI always has its resistance, as calculated with current volume levels. so bear div was risked in 6.2~6.3 area, in the end it had a strong bull move up. at 6.7 level,
rsi level in 1hr was already 80, which is a sell signal BUT! the bulls pushed this to 7.4k, and even made the rsi number higher. that is a 100% confirmation of a bull market, which we should go long at pullbacks.
but look at the market now below.
in a downtrend we did make a bull div at higher 7k levels. yes, that could sign a reversal. but, what is the difference between the former bullrun and now? it cannot make a higher high, which ONLY make RSI resistance more strong! this bear divergence is getting bigger, and bigger, since price is only 7.1k, but rsi level is at 7.47 in its peak! what does this indicate? we HAVE to make a run that goes over 7471 in a very speedy manner and break the rsi level to reverse into a bull trend! before that, absolutely nothing will change this!
MFI levels are already at the top. people can wonder, "why is rsi so high when price is so low?" please check the OBV level, which gives us a hint about the volume that investors are putting in. it keeps getting lower in relative to the bull market few weeks ago. that means what. investors who bought at 5.7k level has all CASHED OUT over 8k levels! with so little volume, this thing only has to drop, or go sideways! this small bounces are bised to the bears, really, because they can recharge the level of indicators at full capacity only to resume downtrend.
So, as i posted in my earlier post, below will be in play.
we can at least sell at 67~68 levels, and after hitting 66,67 levels market may climb up to mid 7k. ONLY to test if 66,67 bottom was put in. going long by chart patterns, "this is a strong support..." forget this.
you have to go long, only if you have your reason that is logical. now, the market is weak, almost breaking out of a rising wedge from 6.8~7.2k level, which might, bring us down back at 6.8~9k levels(too early to call though). go short, try to buy higher as you can!
today, we are seeing the same pattern. "btc going up, so should i buy?" fomo buys may start after this small 6.9->7.1k 200 dollar bounce!
people say, we are going to 9k, 10k! no, no, no. that is absolutely not on the table. because, the market trend is now BEARISH, and BEARISH will never become BULLISH until a strong confirmation. right now, check how the weekly candle closed. a big, fat, bearish engulfing candle that indicates "we are going down, down!". if anybody has little knowledge, they will never go long! even though, i get questions "should i go long, the coins are cheap" i say no! but sadly, people absolutely wouldn't listen.
let me tell you what is different in bear market, and bull market.
see the below chart. this is the chart that started the bull run at 6k.
as you can see, what starts a bull is a clear bull divergence(at 6k area in mid july). after that price goes up. it goes up, has little difficulties in sideways, starts to risk bear div on indicators, BUT! at the end it always make a higher high, and keeps the RIS level higher. RSI, this indicator is a tricky one, but the best indicator than ANY indicator to see where the market goes. RSI always has its resistance, as calculated with current volume levels. so bear div was risked in 6.2~6.3 area, in the end it had a strong bull move up. at 6.7 level,
rsi level in 1hr was already 80, which is a sell signal BUT! the bulls pushed this to 7.4k, and even made the rsi number higher. that is a 100% confirmation of a bull market, which we should go long at pullbacks.
but look at the market now below.
in a downtrend we did make a bull div at higher 7k levels. yes, that could sign a reversal. but, what is the difference between the former bullrun and now? it cannot make a higher high, which ONLY make RSI resistance more strong! this bear divergence is getting bigger, and bigger, since price is only 7.1k, but rsi level is at 7.47 in its peak! what does this indicate? we HAVE to make a run that goes over 7471 in a very speedy manner and break the rsi level to reverse into a bull trend! before that, absolutely nothing will change this!
MFI levels are already at the top. people can wonder, "why is rsi so high when price is so low?" please check the OBV level, which gives us a hint about the volume that investors are putting in. it keeps getting lower in relative to the bull market few weeks ago. that means what. investors who bought at 5.7k level has all CASHED OUT over 8k levels! with so little volume, this thing only has to drop, or go sideways! this small bounces are bised to the bears, really, because they can recharge the level of indicators at full capacity only to resume downtrend.
So, as i posted in my earlier post, below will be in play.
we can at least sell at 67~68 levels, and after hitting 66,67 levels market may climb up to mid 7k. ONLY to test if 66,67 bottom was put in. going long by chart patterns, "this is a strong support..." forget this.
you have to go long, only if you have your reason that is logical. now, the market is weak, almost breaking out of a rising wedge from 6.8~7.2k level, which might, bring us down back at 6.8~9k levels(too early to call though). go short, try to buy higher as you can!
Trade active
i grabbed shorts at 7080 area, waited if it will come higher, but didn't. i took some profit at 69 levels now. if you are not in wait until some time from now, when it might give a small bounce from 7000~7100. looking at the 1hr red clouds it will lose strength again and resume downwards after short bounce.Note
if you have not entered shorts above 7k, you can enter short a smallsome in 6950~7000 zone, only if price maintains this price until 4~5hours from now. from that point on it will face major resistance red ichimoku cloud so chances are it could collapse.. it might squeeze shorts, with a 80~100 dollar shoot up so buying under 6950 is not reasonable, too risky. sell target is 6850/6760 or even under in next 12~16hours or so.Note
Market is weak however 1hr candle is a hammer to defend bottom line where the price fell to 6880 line. Take more profit if you can,4 hour is oversold but there is some chance it might not slide down and collapse.i took my profit more at 6885 level to secure short squeeze.Trade closed manually
right now, market is so in a dull situation. bears want to push it low but cannot be so pushed easily because indicators like 4hour is already in oversold situation that bears cannot take full confidence. bulls are weak, but they have some power to defend the 6850 line, but not push it so much higher(but a decent short squeeze possible) above because of bear div on indicators. closed all my shorts at 68 and 69 level.Note
I will try to look into if a long position is in the cards because altcoins do not want to give up their major support and btc is 100%eager to defend 6850.the market may just move sideways in boring situations for some time.Trade active
enter short current price 7020~7050. put more heavy order at 7100~7140. volume decreased even more. if bulls cannot push higher, we are going back. as i have wrote 5~6days ago, this is the whole plan! buy short above 7k, sell 68 level. this might be the last time we can do this though.Note
guys, if you are only going long, and not going short, you are absolutely wasting your time in this market! especially just WAITING for altcoins to move waiting for my average comes near. this bear market is a very serious one and you have to think about real doom that would come in this market. earning money in this market is so crystal clear. buy shorts, btc whenever it comes above 7K r even higher. higher the price the better. always buy try to keep hold. this will reward you tons in the coming weeks, or months. the top is 8500, it will not go that level until FULL retracement and confirmation.Note
Again shorys win. By now 6720 and 6770 6850 6950 7050 7140 7290 7330 you will not lose
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