The Irregular Top of the Bitcoin ATH of March 2024
Updated
This is an Elliott wave analysis of the March 14, 2024, market top and new all-time high of Bitcoin.
On January 23, Bitcoin ended a two-week correction after briefly breaking the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the 2022 bear market, and marking the price of 38524 dollars as the end point, using the Bitcoin INDEX data.
From that point Bitcoin proceeded upward in five waves to 43863 [wave one, ((i)) ], 52372 [wave three, ((iii)) ], and to a new all-time high at 73757 on March 14.
The last stretch to the all-time high was marked by very erratic price action, with several steep drops in price and rapid recoveries. From an Elliott wave perspective, this could not be deemed as bullish behavior, and no distinct Elliott wave impulses may be identified at the prevailing wave degrees of the market.
Careful examination reveals that the entire market top from March 4 to March 20 should be assigned as a correction, including the all-time high. Wave five, ((v)), of the ascending wave sequence actually occurred on March 4 at the level of $68717, just short of the then-ATH of November 2021. This type of market top is called an irregular top. I believe that Elliott originally called it an unorthodox top. The actual price top is the end of corrective wave B of an ABC structure, or X of a WXY.
Here I am assigning this irregular correction as a double.correction, WXY. The first wave W was a sharp abc spike down, followed by a lead-in abc into a triangle correction in wave X, which produced the top price. This was followed by the correction sequence that most traders identified as THE correction, a deep retrace to the bottom of the trend channel, wave Y.
The final market retrace, Y, was limited by the intersection of a long-term (LT) channel Fibonnaci trend line, and a shorter term (ST) trend line of the run from 38.5 k. This Fibonacci support was enhanced by the 200-period moving average in the 4H timeframe. The 200 SMA is always a meaningful support or resistance in this market.
On January 23, Bitcoin ended a two-week correction after briefly breaking the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the 2022 bear market, and marking the price of 38524 dollars as the end point, using the Bitcoin INDEX data.
From that point Bitcoin proceeded upward in five waves to 43863 [wave one, ((i)) ], 52372 [wave three, ((iii)) ], and to a new all-time high at 73757 on March 14.
The last stretch to the all-time high was marked by very erratic price action, with several steep drops in price and rapid recoveries. From an Elliott wave perspective, this could not be deemed as bullish behavior, and no distinct Elliott wave impulses may be identified at the prevailing wave degrees of the market.
Careful examination reveals that the entire market top from March 4 to March 20 should be assigned as a correction, including the all-time high. Wave five, ((v)), of the ascending wave sequence actually occurred on March 4 at the level of $68717, just short of the then-ATH of November 2021. This type of market top is called an irregular top. I believe that Elliott originally called it an unorthodox top. The actual price top is the end of corrective wave B of an ABC structure, or X of a WXY.
Here I am assigning this irregular correction as a double.correction, WXY. The first wave W was a sharp abc spike down, followed by a lead-in abc into a triangle correction in wave X, which produced the top price. This was followed by the correction sequence that most traders identified as THE correction, a deep retrace to the bottom of the trend channel, wave Y.
The final market retrace, Y, was limited by the intersection of a long-term (LT) channel Fibonnaci trend line, and a shorter term (ST) trend line of the run from 38.5 k. This Fibonacci support was enhanced by the 200-period moving average in the 4H timeframe. The 200 SMA is always a meaningful support or resistance in this market.
Note
Rather then speaking of the irregular stuff, I should mention that the end point of the bull phase culminating in the point { (v), ((v)), 1 } is the “orthodox” top of the market per Elliott Wave theory.Note
Here is a larger view of the market contextNote
The last leg of this correction may well not be finished, despite the support from the trend lines and the 4h 200 SMA. Price action is also confined by the 50 hour SMA, that sits right on top. This has definitely created a triangle format, which may break down from its E-wave in a final wave, piercing support. The triangle is essentially complete, so this can happen within hours.Numerous altcoins are in the finally stage of triangles too, apparently holding out for the finish by bitcoin.
Note
The wave down indeed occurred, but it was no danger to the support here. Immediately the first bullish wave emerged to the upside. This should end this correction.Note
BTC has gained 2500 points since correction end ((Y)).The 200 SMA has held and the overhead 50 SMA was broken.
The longer-term price channel it has been and will continue to trade in rises by about 585 dollars per day.
Note
Bitcoin has broken out of the constraint of the correction and completely exited the last triangular patter zone. It ha exceeded 69000 and topped the end of Minor wave one, which was the orthodox top of the proceeding bull run. This essentially confirms that it is trading in a new third wave of degree Minor. The target of the current subwave is right around the ATH.Note
So, this was the story of the first significant ATH of the 2024 bull market.It was an irregular top driven past its orthodox Elliott wave end point by the greed of the market participants desiring a new all-time high, which in fact the completion of subwave Minute five could not provide.
A very similar pattern may also be observed in some of the meme coins that are hot currently.
Note
Since my initial post here about this structure, the market continued in a corrective manner. Turns out the initial structure added a triangle. This is discussed I in this new topic:
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