Bitcoin triangle, breakout soon, waiting for Tether

Oct 28, 2018

Bitcoin' is still moving inside this triangle, probably because the Tether chapter is still not over. Bitcoin' does seem to have moved from that range (between the red and green area) to a triangle now, indicating that it might all be ending soon. No way to say which of the triangle targets will get reached, but normally the bullish target is slightly in favor in this setup. I do think the red and green zone of the range will still act as resistance/support levels though, even if the triangle breaks. Unless we see a good and fast volume breakout. When looking at alts, where i gave a small warning yesterday, don't see allot of confidence on that side. On the other hand, not dumping as well so it still just be a setup to make a quick small dump and pump (if bitcoin' breaks up). I think if Tether' gets back to 1.00x we might see at least some relief in the market.
These are still no conditions to trade on, unless you like to gamble of course. I don't think we will just see a clear move and that it continues in that direction, knowing how this market moves there is a big chance we will see a false move sooner or later before the real direction gets chosen, so just be aware.

About Tether, we can see the volume has been increasing allot the past days which is a very good sign. The highlighted candle shows allot of volume where the price did not even move. This tells us ALLOT of buyers are willing to pay this price again which is very close to the 1.00x price. Based on this, it should just be a matter of time until we get to the 1.00x level again. Whatever happens, we don't want to see Tether drop again from these levels. Normally it's not an asset where the market speculates on, even though i do think there are some speculators here lately. So if the price price starts to drop again with volume, it will be a bad sign that the market is loosing confidence.



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For more info, read my previous analysis:

Oct 29, 2018

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Not a big move from Tether, but since it was so close to the 1.00x level, find it a bit strange that it has dropped (a little bit) again. Should have gone slowly up. This shows that there might be something going on again. Bitcoin is again at the support level of that triangle. Yesterday it looked like it wanted to break up, with Bitmex even getting at 6450, but seems that was fake attempt.

It also seems like we have an even tighter range now.

Oct 29, 2018

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So big volume dumping on Bitfinex pushed the prices down of Bitcoin. Target of that triangle has been reached now and this 6200/6250 area is an important support level for the market. If this one breaks, it could get allot worse.

Strange thing, the past hours at least, price on Bitmex was 10/20 points higher than the other exchanges. Like they were accumulating, i can't say if it is real or not. But if it was real, this 6200/6250 has to hold! I can think of 2 options in that case, a (quick) move back up towards 6400ish, or stay around 6250 for many hours and make a Bart move. Otherwise the accumulation story is invalid.

Alts are taking some hits now as well, nothing huge but looking bad at the moment. So i think if the 6200ish breaks, things could get allot worse the coming days.

Oct 29, 2018

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Oct 29, 2018

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I forgot to mention, open intrest on Bitmex went up allot the past few hours. This indicates a high possibility of a big move coming up (usually minimal of 300 points). Based on what i said earlier, it could still be to the upside, but when the 6200ish breaks, we should expect a drop below the 6000.
Can't say which side it will be, because we just get fake moves all the time. In my original posting i mentioned that IF we would break the range of Bitcoin, i don't expect the market to just move in one straight direction, big chance that we get to see one or more false moves before that happens.

Oct 30, 2018

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Tether is moving up again but it should never have dropped today in the first place. I just wan't to get it over with this Tether nonsense, because until then every analysis on Bitcoin/Crypto is not that meaningful. Bears on crypto are in favor though when it comes to Tether.

Bitcoin is still moving in that target zone of that triangle and in that support zone of 6200/6250. Still no bounce up which is a bad sign. At the moment it looks like a bear flag, could still see a small move up before dropping again. Unless the bulls can push it above that red resistance zone around 6300, that way the bear flag gets invalidated. Otherwise, we have to expect to see another drop.

Oct 30, 2018

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So for it's following that blue line exactly, but the break of this bear flag lacks conviction. We should have seen at least a quick drop to that green support zone around 6230 with some volume. But not seeing any of that, making bull/bear version almost 50/50 again.
Tether might be in the making of a triangle, so hopefully it's the final stage for this one.

Oct 30, 2018

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Looks like the bear flag might have changed it's shape, so it still fits the requirements of a standard bear flag. On the left it needs to get above the 6300ish to bring things 80/20 bearish towards 60/40 bearish. Above 6400 things get 50/50 again.

Oct 31, 2018

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Still no bounce up for Bitcoin and the Bart move scenario is getting less likely now. I will show why in a new Bitcoin update. Looking at the shape of the bear flag, it is much more likely we will see another wave down. Only thing making me doubt is the fact that we are still above that 6200/6250 support zone. So it could still become a higher low. So unless we see a move above that 6300 chances are very high we will break the 6200 and go towards the 6050.

Oct 31, 2018

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Update: