BTC Corrects
The market has a way of humbling you, keeping you on your toes. I’ve spoken at length about "Uptober" and past bullish trends as the month began. However, instead of following that pattern, we saw a bullish end to September followed by a downturn to kick off October. Admittedly, this was largely due to temporary risk aversion sparked by the Israel/Iran escalation, but that shouldn’t matter in the bigger picture. In fact, geopolitical conflict could be positive for Bitcoin if it evolves into the safe-haven asset we hope it becomes.
Similarly, September started with poor, downward price action but ended as the best-performing September on record. I’m not concerned about October, but it’s crucial to stay cautious, especially when everyone seems to expect the same outcome.
Additionally, I’ve gained a new perspective on the chart, shared directly by trading legend Peter Brandt. I was wrong, and I’m not sure why I didn’t see it sooner.
While $65,000 was a higher high for Bitcoin in the short term, to make a true higher high, we need a break above the July peak of $70,000. Since Bitcoin didn’t make a lower low after reaching $65,000, the real previous higher high remains $70,000.
I’ve updated the chart accordingly.
That said, this move was simply a backtest of the 50 MA for now, not a big deal. We are also way oversold on lower time frames, so bullish divergence is now very much in play on any future dip. Here is the idea on the 4-hour to illustrate.
Similarly, September started with poor, downward price action but ended as the best-performing September on record. I’m not concerned about October, but it’s crucial to stay cautious, especially when everyone seems to expect the same outcome.
Additionally, I’ve gained a new perspective on the chart, shared directly by trading legend Peter Brandt. I was wrong, and I’m not sure why I didn’t see it sooner.
While $65,000 was a higher high for Bitcoin in the short term, to make a true higher high, we need a break above the July peak of $70,000. Since Bitcoin didn’t make a lower low after reaching $65,000, the real previous higher high remains $70,000.
I’ve updated the chart accordingly.
That said, this move was simply a backtest of the 50 MA for now, not a big deal. We are also way oversold on lower time frames, so bullish divergence is now very much in play on any future dip. Here is the idea on the 4-hour to illustrate.
scott.melker@texaswestcapital.com
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