Bitcoin bullish the coming days? Analysis and recap of this week
Updated
Bitcoin USD 6 hour candles
As we all know Bitcoin crashed in the recent months. The lowest point was at 6000 USD on the 6th of February, coming from its 19900 dollar all time high at the 17th of December 2017.
In the last months Bitcoin is basically copying the path of this Market Cycle cheatsheet. If we are to believe this chart we should currently be in the "anger" phase, followed by the "depression" phase. Well isn't that cheering, right?
Sure, in the last few months Bitcoin has been copying the market cycle paths I mentioned earlier, and if you would overlay the 2014 chart after the Mt. Gox fall out the resemblance is eery. But the nice thing with cheat sheets, historical data and technical analysis from people like me is that the price often follows their predicted lines right until... it doesn't: So there is hope left for us after all, ladies and gentlemen!
Looking back at the last few days, why did Bitcoin dip so hard again? Two reasons. The first reason is that news broke this week, that the Mt. Gox bankruptcy trustee has been dumping massive stacks of Bitcoin on the market: $ 400,000,000 over the last couple of months.
The second reason is the fear, anxiety and doubt (fud) that hit the market this week when it became apparent that Binance users were duped because their api's had been hacked to sell their Bitcoin at market rate. In the end Binance made sure nobody lost coins over it, but the damage had already been done for the Bitcoin price.
So where do we go from here? Well, I don't know..."wait a minute there CryptoJC, I've been reading this far, and now you're not going to tell me if we moon next week or it will be bubble burst?!".
Okay let me explain; I create TA myself and I value it very much, and personally I couldn't and wouldn't want to trade without it. But I am convinced price development in trading goes beyond what you can can purely make out of technical analysis (TA) alone (which studies the charts, numbers, price history and so on). Purely based on TA I'd say we're pretty doomed for the next couple of months, just compare the chart with 2014 and those market cycle sheets you can find everywhere. Easy peasy.
There is more that influences the price of a coin and there is were you enter the realm of fundamental analysis and sentiment analysis. I try to factor in news, market sentiment, legislation, rumors, tech developments and so on to the best of my abilities and with alt coins it is often possible to get a clear picture of the situation which gives me a strong indication which way it will be heading. But Bitcoin... it's so hard to grasp. Sure, short term is somewhat predictable with TA, and the support, resistance and trend lines to monitor for breaks always come to good use, wether it pumps or dumps. But the mid and longer term for BTC is cloudy as far as I'm concerned. We simply don't know what good or bad news is yet to break, how long that Mt. Gox trustee will continue to dump his bitcoins, legislation and so on.
I am carefully bullish on the immediate short term though (days): RSI is oversold (usually indicates a reversal) and TTM Squeeze and MACD look like they are about to tip over too!
Personally I only enter trades after I witness a break confirmation. My analysis is not financial advice: you should never invest solely upon reading my or another persons TA and do your own research: explore news, social media, tech info and so on. Monitor your investment and set alerts and stop loss orders in place.
If you enjoy my analysis, please upvote my charts, thanks!
Happy Trading! ~ CryptoJC
As we all know Bitcoin crashed in the recent months. The lowest point was at 6000 USD on the 6th of February, coming from its 19900 dollar all time high at the 17th of December 2017.
In the last months Bitcoin is basically copying the path of this Market Cycle cheatsheet. If we are to believe this chart we should currently be in the "anger" phase, followed by the "depression" phase. Well isn't that cheering, right?
Sure, in the last few months Bitcoin has been copying the market cycle paths I mentioned earlier, and if you would overlay the 2014 chart after the Mt. Gox fall out the resemblance is eery. But the nice thing with cheat sheets, historical data and technical analysis from people like me is that the price often follows their predicted lines right until... it doesn't: So there is hope left for us after all, ladies and gentlemen!
Looking back at the last few days, why did Bitcoin dip so hard again? Two reasons. The first reason is that news broke this week, that the Mt. Gox bankruptcy trustee has been dumping massive stacks of Bitcoin on the market: $ 400,000,000 over the last couple of months.
The second reason is the fear, anxiety and doubt (fud) that hit the market this week when it became apparent that Binance users were duped because their api's had been hacked to sell their Bitcoin at market rate. In the end Binance made sure nobody lost coins over it, but the damage had already been done for the Bitcoin price.
So where do we go from here? Well, I don't know..."wait a minute there CryptoJC, I've been reading this far, and now you're not going to tell me if we moon next week or it will be bubble burst?!".
Okay let me explain; I create TA myself and I value it very much, and personally I couldn't and wouldn't want to trade without it. But I am convinced price development in trading goes beyond what you can can purely make out of technical analysis (TA) alone (which studies the charts, numbers, price history and so on). Purely based on TA I'd say we're pretty doomed for the next couple of months, just compare the chart with 2014 and those market cycle sheets you can find everywhere. Easy peasy.
There is more that influences the price of a coin and there is were you enter the realm of fundamental analysis and sentiment analysis. I try to factor in news, market sentiment, legislation, rumors, tech developments and so on to the best of my abilities and with alt coins it is often possible to get a clear picture of the situation which gives me a strong indication which way it will be heading. But Bitcoin... it's so hard to grasp. Sure, short term is somewhat predictable with TA, and the support, resistance and trend lines to monitor for breaks always come to good use, wether it pumps or dumps. But the mid and longer term for BTC is cloudy as far as I'm concerned. We simply don't know what good or bad news is yet to break, how long that Mt. Gox trustee will continue to dump his bitcoins, legislation and so on.
I am carefully bullish on the immediate short term though (days): RSI is oversold (usually indicates a reversal) and TTM Squeeze and MACD look like they are about to tip over too!
Personally I only enter trades after I witness a break confirmation. My analysis is not financial advice: you should never invest solely upon reading my or another persons TA and do your own research: explore news, social media, tech info and so on. Monitor your investment and set alerts and stop loss orders in place.
If you enjoy my analysis, please upvote my charts, thanks!
Happy Trading! ~ CryptoJC
Note
Bitcoin USD update: Short term pennant on 30 minute candles. If it will break the ceiling line at 9250 with confirmation, it will head towards 9800 ~ 10k, if it fails the yellow top line, it will probably retrace towards 8600 ~ 8700 and test the pennant bottom.Note
Bitcoin broke up from the pennant I drew, but is struggling severely right now with the 0% Fibonacci resistance line at $ 9450 from the chart I shared 5 hours ago.Note
Bitcoin has been following my path this week! You can view the new follow up chart, with 60 minute candles, here: 
Note
Click the chart to view the latest short term Bitcoin chart: 
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