BTC - AFTER THE FLOP WITH JACKS!
Updated
Good poker players make good market traders. The same fundamentals apply to both games.
1) You must control emotions
2) You must be able to manage your money roll (know what your able to risk for any specific trade/bet)
3) You must understand the probabilities of different outcomes (risk/reward)
4) You must be aware of hands that beat you (what chart patterns void your path)
5) You must be able to throw away hands you think are winners (THIS IS THE HARDEST THING TO DO)
6) You must have patience (you wait for high prob setups not force trades/hands)
7) Better to win small then lose big! (take money off the table when you can)
8) YOU MUST ALWAYS KNOW YOUR POSITION AT THE TABLE and that determines your risks. (if your not a whale don't trade like one)
These are the reason good poker players make good traders. These are the necessary skills. Yes there is always that guy that plays 52 off suit and kills it. This is the exception not the general rule, as more often than not leads to failure. But Dan Negreanu plays 58 off suit and wins? You are NOT Dan Negreanu's so do not play like him. I mention this for two reasons. 1) the comments about "market manipulation" 2) how others trade may not be applicable to you!
When you sit at the poker table, there is inevitably someone with a large stack. No different then large firms. This does not mean you are at a disadvantage, it only means they dictate how the table plays and you don't. Markets in general are NOT manipulated. What you are seeing is big stacks dictating how the table plays. In poker you must recognize this and adjust, no different then investing. You will see large spikes before dips and vice versa. These are raises preflop testing the table. You ONLY call with good hands and sometimes you must still throw them away. They have paid analysts crunching numbers, looking at probabilities and coming up with strategies that we are unable to play because of stack size.
I hear it all the time, the chart is perfect, I place my order and set my stop loss. Do you think your the only one? The whales look for these schools of fish, and they have the information and bankroll to push you out of a hand, such as buying into short positions triggering margins, creating the buyers they need to go short themselves. Kind of like a "feeler bet", throw a bet see how the table reacts. I've thrown winners away because of this and do not look back.
There we were looking down at pocket Jacks, and the big stack 4 bets. Do you reraise? No you call. This is why I entered only a 1/2 of my trade allocation when I did. This is a call. Flop 67Q. Do I have the best hand? Maybe, Maybe not. But I have to throw those J's away if the big roll bets big! Yes he may be chasing, but he can wipe me out and not feel a thing if he loses. This is why last night I thought about it, and said, it's better to throw away a good hand, then play into a shark with a bad one! I'll be patient and wait for a better setup. Nothing like re-raising all in and the guy throws over Q7. Seriuosly? oh the pain. KNOW YOUR PLACE AT THE TABLE and do not try and go toe to toe with the big stack!
Nothing much in the chart has changed from the original view on the correction since the first bull trap. However the picture is becoming a little more clear. I think the best setup for a trade lies in the $3500-$3900 where a bounce would make bulls feel confident, especially from 0.618. This is a very safe trade in the aspect if we are wrong and it continues up then we still win. We must be very cautious of the $3491 area. If it breaks down from here we MAY be headed to Y sooner than later. $3308 is critical to hold for a rally. 3500ish would be pocket aces with a $4500 target. $1000 with a stop at $3300 gives us a 1/5 risk/reward. This is where I would be "all in" so to speak. At least entering a full trade in lieu of a partial. Keep in mind ACES DO GET CRACKED!
1) You must control emotions
2) You must be able to manage your money roll (know what your able to risk for any specific trade/bet)
3) You must understand the probabilities of different outcomes (risk/reward)
4) You must be aware of hands that beat you (what chart patterns void your path)
5) You must be able to throw away hands you think are winners (THIS IS THE HARDEST THING TO DO)
6) You must have patience (you wait for high prob setups not force trades/hands)
7) Better to win small then lose big! (take money off the table when you can)
8) YOU MUST ALWAYS KNOW YOUR POSITION AT THE TABLE and that determines your risks. (if your not a whale don't trade like one)
These are the reason good poker players make good traders. These are the necessary skills. Yes there is always that guy that plays 52 off suit and kills it. This is the exception not the general rule, as more often than not leads to failure. But Dan Negreanu plays 58 off suit and wins? You are NOT Dan Negreanu's so do not play like him. I mention this for two reasons. 1) the comments about "market manipulation" 2) how others trade may not be applicable to you!
When you sit at the poker table, there is inevitably someone with a large stack. No different then large firms. This does not mean you are at a disadvantage, it only means they dictate how the table plays and you don't. Markets in general are NOT manipulated. What you are seeing is big stacks dictating how the table plays. In poker you must recognize this and adjust, no different then investing. You will see large spikes before dips and vice versa. These are raises preflop testing the table. You ONLY call with good hands and sometimes you must still throw them away. They have paid analysts crunching numbers, looking at probabilities and coming up with strategies that we are unable to play because of stack size.
I hear it all the time, the chart is perfect, I place my order and set my stop loss. Do you think your the only one? The whales look for these schools of fish, and they have the information and bankroll to push you out of a hand, such as buying into short positions triggering margins, creating the buyers they need to go short themselves. Kind of like a "feeler bet", throw a bet see how the table reacts. I've thrown winners away because of this and do not look back.
There we were looking down at pocket Jacks, and the big stack 4 bets. Do you reraise? No you call. This is why I entered only a 1/2 of my trade allocation when I did. This is a call. Flop 67Q. Do I have the best hand? Maybe, Maybe not. But I have to throw those J's away if the big roll bets big! Yes he may be chasing, but he can wipe me out and not feel a thing if he loses. This is why last night I thought about it, and said, it's better to throw away a good hand, then play into a shark with a bad one! I'll be patient and wait for a better setup. Nothing like re-raising all in and the guy throws over Q7. Seriuosly? oh the pain. KNOW YOUR PLACE AT THE TABLE and do not try and go toe to toe with the big stack!
Nothing much in the chart has changed from the original view on the correction since the first bull trap. However the picture is becoming a little more clear. I think the best setup for a trade lies in the $3500-$3900 where a bounce would make bulls feel confident, especially from 0.618. This is a very safe trade in the aspect if we are wrong and it continues up then we still win. We must be very cautious of the $3491 area. If it breaks down from here we MAY be headed to Y sooner than later. $3308 is critical to hold for a rally. 3500ish would be pocket aces with a $4500 target. $1000 with a stop at $3300 gives us a 1/5 risk/reward. This is where I would be "all in" so to speak. At least entering a full trade in lieu of a partial. Keep in mind ACES DO GET CRACKED!
Comment
I cannot remember who did it in the WSOP, but I will never forget watching a player throw pocket aces away preflop! That has stuck with me since!Comment
The neckline was not a hindsight comment, the chart was already done prior, but it takes about 1.5 hours to write up and edit the article, so the move was done during the article and I cannot edit the chart once I start writing. Only edit the writing part. But we did mention this yesterday as well.Comment
From a historical trend and pattern perspective, the pattern is amazingly close.Comment
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