The Chosen One
Updated
I believe Bitcoin is about to fulfil its destiny.
I personally doubted it would for the last few years. Not just because of the ever present declining price, but I suppose I became so disenfranchised with the entire space. The 'alts', the exchanges, the stable coins etc., all rotten elements birthed from greed and ego.
Nonetheless, with the events regarding Silicon Valley Bank this week, it became clear once more that the prophecy of the Chosen One lives on.
The path is not easy.
I believe there is a chance BTC rips high, and soon, if not immediately.
My reasons for the expecting a good year for BTC are:
- The world is stuck dead centre between trying to curb inflation, and avoid deflation. The latter is complete collapse.
- There has been a cleansing of the space. Exchanges have blown up, scammers found out, alts long forgotten. To be sure, not enough of it - but it will continue even when BTC rises.
- Anything crypto related is hated right now. Its reputation nuked after 2 years of embarrasment. The public hates it. This is good. Sentiment is rock bottom.
- This year, people, on a massive scale, will learn that traditional banks are basically fractional reserves, and their money is never fully safe. Self custody with BTC is the answer.
- The halving is less than a year away.
You will notice the big red box on the chart. I've highlighted this time frame as I believe it will yield something catastrophic. We can all feel it. I'm not sure what it will be, but I believe it's a narrative for BTC to prosper with - but then also die with (depending on severity of the doom). These issues must be highlighted:
- The war in Ukraine. This is so much bigger than everyone thinks. So many things are tied to this. You should also know that it has been getting progressively worse. There is no end in sight.
- Because of the above. We now exist in a multipolar world. This increases risk and randomness in basically every category, in every location.
- Western society is clearly broken. It's no longer the Grey Havens it was for the 65 odd years post WW2. Everything is in ruin, and sadly, everyone hates each other.
- There are infinite economic issues. Military rhetoric is increasing. Trust in governments post Covid is zero. Something is likely to snap.
I could continue to dribble on, but the above forms my thesis for the next 12-36 months. It's all connected.
Regarding BTC trading specifically:
- Ideally buy ASAP. Anything from 15-25k is a minimum 6-9x. Short term price action is going to be messy. Likely big % swings both ways.
- Don't trade short time frames this time. With continued attacks on exchanges and stable coins (and their subsequent collapses/ de-peggings), I expect price movement to be EXTREMELY illiquid.
- I expect banks around the world might try and stop users from sending money to exchanges to buy BTC. Be wary of this.
- Don't touch alts. This is not 2020 when money printer made every thing on earth increase in price. There are no more greater fools to profit from. This is the final boss. Only BTC can defeat it. Everything else is already dead.
- Price expectations are: minimum 50k by 3rd quarter of this year. As high as 280k in 18 months. Unknown beyond (not ruling out mega crash during the doom).
- Stocks may experience a melt up, blow off top - or trend bearish. Arguments can be made for both sides.
- Below 10k I'm wrong and BTC for whatever reason is likely dead or irrelevant.
Bitcoin is the Chosen One. It always was. There is a path to the moon, but it is fraught with danger and even the complete collapse of society itself. This is not about profits, this is about survival in whatever it is that comes next.
After nearly a decade in this space, and 7 years trading BTC, this is my final trade.
I personally doubted it would for the last few years. Not just because of the ever present declining price, but I suppose I became so disenfranchised with the entire space. The 'alts', the exchanges, the stable coins etc., all rotten elements birthed from greed and ego.
Nonetheless, with the events regarding Silicon Valley Bank this week, it became clear once more that the prophecy of the Chosen One lives on.
The path is not easy.
I believe there is a chance BTC rips high, and soon, if not immediately.
My reasons for the expecting a good year for BTC are:
- The world is stuck dead centre between trying to curb inflation, and avoid deflation. The latter is complete collapse.
- There has been a cleansing of the space. Exchanges have blown up, scammers found out, alts long forgotten. To be sure, not enough of it - but it will continue even when BTC rises.
- Anything crypto related is hated right now. Its reputation nuked after 2 years of embarrasment. The public hates it. This is good. Sentiment is rock bottom.
- This year, people, on a massive scale, will learn that traditional banks are basically fractional reserves, and their money is never fully safe. Self custody with BTC is the answer.
- The halving is less than a year away.
You will notice the big red box on the chart. I've highlighted this time frame as I believe it will yield something catastrophic. We can all feel it. I'm not sure what it will be, but I believe it's a narrative for BTC to prosper with - but then also die with (depending on severity of the doom). These issues must be highlighted:
- The war in Ukraine. This is so much bigger than everyone thinks. So many things are tied to this. You should also know that it has been getting progressively worse. There is no end in sight.
- Because of the above. We now exist in a multipolar world. This increases risk and randomness in basically every category, in every location.
- Western society is clearly broken. It's no longer the Grey Havens it was for the 65 odd years post WW2. Everything is in ruin, and sadly, everyone hates each other.
- There are infinite economic issues. Military rhetoric is increasing. Trust in governments post Covid is zero. Something is likely to snap.
I could continue to dribble on, but the above forms my thesis for the next 12-36 months. It's all connected.
Regarding BTC trading specifically:
- Ideally buy ASAP. Anything from 15-25k is a minimum 6-9x. Short term price action is going to be messy. Likely big % swings both ways.
- Don't trade short time frames this time. With continued attacks on exchanges and stable coins (and their subsequent collapses/ de-peggings), I expect price movement to be EXTREMELY illiquid.
- I expect banks around the world might try and stop users from sending money to exchanges to buy BTC. Be wary of this.
- Don't touch alts. This is not 2020 when money printer made every thing on earth increase in price. There are no more greater fools to profit from. This is the final boss. Only BTC can defeat it. Everything else is already dead.
- Price expectations are: minimum 50k by 3rd quarter of this year. As high as 280k in 18 months. Unknown beyond (not ruling out mega crash during the doom).
- Stocks may experience a melt up, blow off top - or trend bearish. Arguments can be made for both sides.
- Below 10k I'm wrong and BTC for whatever reason is likely dead or irrelevant.
Bitcoin is the Chosen One. It always was. There is a path to the moon, but it is fraught with danger and even the complete collapse of society itself. This is not about profits, this is about survival in whatever it is that comes next.
After nearly a decade in this space, and 7 years trading BTC, this is my final trade.
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The Holy war has begun.
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